The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[brommy]

5 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

I have no issues with differing opinions. It's when they are ignorant of the facts that I start to have a problem.

If someone were to say "I think we should crash out of the EU because we have  become politically infantilised and over-reliant on other people for both our democracy and our national sustainability, so although we will become poorer and more insular it will benefit the UK in the long-run" then I would disagree with them but at least they've given thought to what they want and are being intellectually honest.

If they say "everything will be better because we will carry on as we are due to our regulatory equivalence and at the same time we can then go and get loads of new trade deals" then it's just factually wrong. There isn't an opinion to disrespect, it's just a jumble of things that they don't understand.

I'm not sure I agree with your pigeon holes but leave voters I know are much closer to the former than the later. In fact I don't think there are many who don't acknowledge there may be some economic detriment, at least in the short and medium term. After that it's back to opinions and let's wait and see what 2040 looks like.

[ml1dch]

1 minute ago, brommy said:

I'm not sure I agree with your pigeon holes but leave voters I know are much closer to the former than the later. In fact I don't think there are many who don't acknowledge there may be some economic detriment, at least in the short and medium term. 

Odd, I don't remember many people on that side of the fence saying so last June. 

Or many in the current Government saying it over the last year.

[colhint]

1 hour ago, Chindie said:

Am I wrong to take this to imply its their fault somehow?

Because... Well... It was s global crisis that caused this, at the fundamental basis of the economy, the banks, in the biggest economy in the world, coming undone at the seams in a way that thundered through the whole world, and particularly the West. 

And it isn't easy to fix. Or may not be possible to fast track a fix. Certainly not when governments made it worse.

No your'e not wrong it's only opinions. but you did say that austerity, which was the route that Germany took, was foolhardy. So I do wonder which route you would take.

German = austerity= foolhardy

or 

 France = Anti austerity. 

tough choice.

If It's neither, which governments made it better or worse?

[brommy]

6 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Odd, I don't remember many people on that side of the fence saying so last June. 

Or many in the current Government saying it over the last year.

The vast majority of the several dozen leavers I spoke to over the months either side of the referendum were fully expectant of a difficult negotiation and some level of short to medium economic effect, so our experiences are clearly different in that respect.

As for what the current Tory government has said over the last year, whilst I've never voted for their party, I would expect any colour government to attempt as positive spin as possible.

[HanoiVillan]

28 minutes ago, brommy said:

I'm not sure I agree with your pigeon holes but leave voters I know are much closer to the former than the later. In fact I don't think there are many who don't acknowledge there may be some economic detriment, at least in the short and medium term. After that it's back to opinions and let's wait and see what 2040 looks like.

Great. By 2040 I will be 54 years old, having lived nearly my entire adult life in a self-inflicted depression. 

[brommy]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Great. By 2040 I will be 54 years old, having lived nearly my entire adult life in a self-inflicted depression. 

Welcome to Aston Villa my fellow fan!

On a more serious note and hoping you weren't referring to inflicting depression on yourself, the good news is that it isn't certain the UK economy will be in depression over the next 20 years, either with or without membership of the EU.

Edited October 15, 2017 by brommy

[colhint]

4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Great. By 2040 I will be 54 years old, having lived nearly my entire adult life in a self-inflicted depression. 

same as my dad and 4 of my uncles. Lifes a bitch ain't it. Don't suppose you had two aunt's raped during the war as well, in holland during the war did you?

[StefanAVFC]

2 minutes ago, colhint said:

same as my dad and 4 of my uncles. Lifes a bitch ain't it. Don't suppose you had two aunt's raped during the war as well, in holland during the war did you?

Poor comment.

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, colhint said:

same as my dad and 4 of my uncles. Lifes a bitch ain't it. Don't suppose you had two aunt's raped during the war as well, in holland during the war did you?

I'm sorry to hear about your family, though I find the aggressive tone of your post a bit confusing. Part of the point of human progress is surely not to have to live through the worst experiences our ancestors lived through. 

[StefanAVFC]

I do find it amusing how the generation in their 50s and 60s who avoided the war, got handed free education, cheap housing, continuously tell our generation how easy we have it and tell us how they know better.

Also amusing, "wait til 2040"  You know the argument is weak when you're asked to wait 23 years to see any benefit.

Edited October 15, 2017 by StefanAVFC

[brommy]

Just now, StefanAVFC said:

I do find it amusing how the generation in their 50s and 60s who avoided the war, got handed free education, cheap housing, continuously tell our generation how easy we have it and tell us how they know better.

Also amusing, "wait til 2040" 

I'm laughing at your amusement! I think leaving the EU is such a major decision that the full extent of it's success or failure won't be clear for a decade and possibly as much as a generation.

[Chindie]

32 minutes ago, colhint said:

No your'e not wrong it's only opinions. but you did say that austerity, which was the route that Germany took, was foolhardy. So I do wonder which route you would take.

German = austerity= foolhardy

or 

 France = Anti austerity. 

tough choice.

If It's neither, which governments made it better or worse?

The EU and Merkel didn't cause the financial crisis. American banks did.

Economics is complex and isn't my forte, but it's generally held that you don't save your way out of recession. I don't even know if Germany did that. If they did, on the face of it, that's not a good idea. But I'm not a finance minister, perhaps they had their reasons. It's unlikely to have made many people's lives better.

Equally I've no idea if France's efforts were good or bad.

Certainly the crisis was bad enough even doing the 'right' thing on paper, spending, might not have made much difference in the ground. The argument isn't that the right decision turns things into sweetness and light, but that it may have made things slightly less bad.

And as initially said, it's more than just the economy, but that is certainly the big problem. You also need to add in the terrorism angle for instance, which always causes disquiet with governments because it immediately suggests a failure in a key role of government, keeping its citizens safe.

And so on.

This is an intensely complicated subject. The shift to the right and things like Brexit (which is fairly cross party) are reactions to life being bad and seeking change. 'Brexit will save Britain! We're strong but we send millions to Europe!' 'the EU is holding us back! Look what we have now!', 'Trump will save your job', 'a ban will stop the terrorists!'. Etc etc. Simple answers for complicated questions.. Being sold to people who want to buy. 

[Dr_Pangloss]

4 minutes ago, brommy said:

I'm laughing at your amusement! I think leaving the EU is such a major decision that the full extent of it's success or failure won't be clear for a decade and possibly as much as a generation.

The short to medium term economic disruption will be significant and that alone makes it not worth it.

[StefanAVFC]

8 minutes ago, brommy said:

I'm laughing at your amusement! I think leaving the EU is such a major decision that the full extent of it's success or failure won't be clear for a decade and possibly as much as a generation.

Right so, lets analyse this.

If we need to wait until 2040 to see any benefit, then a large percentage of those who voted for it will probably be gone, and the ones who didn't want it will be older.

So great, if it's an absolute disaster (which I see zero chance of not happening so far) we got absolutely screwed by those who won't even be there to see it.

Boomer generation - got everything handed on a plate to them, while acting like they know it all.

And anyway, the % of leave voters who voted leave for a change in 23 years will be monumentally small. I'm wagering more than a minority thought we could leave immediately and start kicking people out on June 24th 2016.

Edited October 15, 2017 by StefanAVFC

[darrenm]

We should be all bloody rejoicing at the moment anyway. Hard brexit is dead and buried. The worst that can happen is exiting the EU but keeping access to the single market and customs union.

Not the best outcome but certainly not the worst.

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, darrenm said:

We should be all bloody rejoicing at the moment anyway. Hard brexit is dead and buried. The worst that can happen is exiting the EU but keeping access to the single market and customs union.

Not the best outcome but certainly not the worst.

I'm not as optimistic.

For some reason, no deal is seemingly a realistic option which would totally **** us short/medium term with not much long term optimism either.

[brommy]

10 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Right so, lets analyse this.

If we need to wait until 2040 to see any benefit, then a large percentage of those who voted for it will probably be gone, and the ones who didn't want it will be older.

So great, if it's an absolute disaster (which I see zero chance of not happening so far) we got absolutely screwed by those who won't even be there to see it.

Boomer generation - got everything handed on a plate to them, while acting like they know it all.

And anyway, the % of leave voters who voted leave for a change in 23 years will be monumentally small. I'm wagering more than a minority thought we could leave immediately and start kicking people out on June 24th 2016.

I didn't write that there wouldn't be any benefit before 2040. Benefits may come and go before then but without the benefit of long term assessment and trends, leavers and remainers will merely be arguing over that month's economic data and whether it should or shouldn't be blamed on the EU.

Edited October 15, 2017 by brommy

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, brommy said:

Benefits may come and go before then but without the benefit of long term assessment and trends, leavers and remainers will merely be arguing over that month's economic data and whether it should or shouldn't be blamed on the EU.

And that's meant to make people feel better? 

[colhint]

11 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The EU and Merkel didn't cause the financial crisis. American banks did.

Economics is complex and isn't my forte, but it's generally held that you don't save your way out of recession. I don't even know if Germany did that. If they did, on the face of it, that's not a good idea. But I'm not a finance minister, perhaps they had their reasons. It's unlikely to have made many people's lives better.

Equally I've no idea if France's efforts were good or bad.

Certainly the crisis was bad enough even doing the 'right' thing on paper, spending, might not have made much difference in the ground. The argument isn't that the right decision turns things into sweetness and light, but that it may have made things slightly less bad.

And as initially said, it's more than just the economy, but that is certainly the big problem. You also need to add in the terrorism angle for instance, which always causes disquiet with governments because it immediately suggests a failure in a key role of government, keeping its citizens safe.

And so on.

This is an intensely complicated subject. The shift to the right and things like Brexit (which is fairly cross party) are reactions to life being bad and seeking change. 'Brexit will save Britain! We're strong but we send millions to Europe!' 'the EU is holding us back! Look what we have now!', 'Trump will save your job', 'a ban will stop the terrorists!'. Etc etc. Simple answers for complicated questions.. Being sold to people who want to buy. 

Just a question. If economics is not your forte, how can you call austerity foolhrady?

[brommy]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

And that's meant to make people feel better? 

No, it's not.