Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

[OutByEaster?]

28 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I see VT has decided to make it about personalities rather than policies 

same old same old  

The sad thing is that in this case, it's not VT that's responsible for that - the desire to make this about personality, about party lines and about just about everything except what being in the EU does or doesn't actually mean is coming directly from the people involved - Boris Johnson isn't trying to tell explain what the vote means for us, he's hoping we'll like him, likewise Mr Cameron, likewise just about everyone from whichever side of the political fence they fall - all supported by a media that have very little intention of informing and every intention of showing us which personalities they like and asking us to back them. 

If VT are making it about personalities rather than politics, we're bang on message.

 

[Spoony]

For what it's worth, I will be voting to stay. If we leave there will be so many bilateral trade, security and legal treaties that we might as well have stayed. The only difference would be that we wouldn't actually get a say in all of the EU laws and systems that will inevitably affect us anyway.

The idea of us being an entirely self-governing, powerful, isolated and self-sufficient island is just ridiculous. This is the 21st century. The days of the empire are over. Strong relations with our neighbours is important and we should be working together. The best way to do that is to be part of the EU so that we can influence it, even if it means we don't always get our way. But that's compromise and working together for you.

[tonyh29]

It depends how you view the shit being spouted 

 

out will say we give the EU £350m a week and they are right we do BUT we get half of it back in rebates *  so £350m is  misleading and probably intentionally so .... How many people will be outraged by that £350m v how many will bother to check it for themselves remains to be seen

 

* the argument is that we don't control the rebate and how it's paid ( I think )

[Mantis]

9 minutes ago, Spoony said:

For what it's worth, I will be voting to stay. If we leave there will be so many bilateral trade, security and legal treaties that we might as well have stayed. The only difference would be that we wouldn't actually get a say in all of the EU laws and systems that will inevitably affect us anyway.

The idea of us being an entirely self-governing, powerful, isolated and self-sufficient island is just ridiculous. This is the 21st century. The days of the empire are over. Strong relations with our neighbours is important and we should be working together. The best way to do that is to be part of the EU so that we can influence it, even if it means we don't always get our way. But that's compromise and working together for you.

Thing is, hardly anybody who wants to leave wants that. You can disagree with the arguments all you want but this idea that those in favour of Leaving want us to become the British Empire Mk2/isolationist (those are the two most common stereotypes) is a myth basically.

It's a bit like saying people in favour of staying want us to just become a puppet state of an EU super-state. Yeah I'm sure there are some who want that but only a very small minority.

[tonyh29]

10 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

The sad thing is that in this case, it's not VT that's responsible for that - the desire to make this about personality, about party lines and about just about everything except what being in the EU does or doesn't actually mean is coming directly from the people involved - Boris Johnson isn't trying to tell explain what the vote means for us, he's hoping we'll like him, likewise Mr Cameron, likewise just about everyone from whichever side of the political fence they fall - all supported by a media that have very little intention of informing and every intention of showing us which personalities they like and asking them to back them. 

If VT are making it about personalities rather than politics, we're bang on message.

 

I'm fairly sure IDS is a turd would be the response  even if he spelt out his position and arguments .

 

tbf the announcement was only made yesterday the campaigning hasn't really started yet ... I don't know if we will get TV debates and impartial arguments put forward , I somehow doubt it 

the Tory party appear to have more MPs in the out camp than the in camp so either way Cameron is a gonna come June 23rd , though an in  result might give him a slow death rather then the instant death he out vote will give 

 

Johnson may have been clever here , he's put himself directly opposite Osborne who is his main contender for replacing Cameron and on the side of the majority of Tory MP's ... In that regard you could be right in that the UK is going to be the victims of a Tory party power struggle 

 

 

[chrisp65]

29 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I see VT has decided to make it about personalities rather than policies 

same old same old  

 

 

feel free to lift the level by telling us some policies

So far Cameron 'feels' we will be 'safer' in europe, Duncan Smith has said today he 'feels' we are more at threat of terrorist attack if we vote to stay in.

Please pick the facts out of that exchange.

[Xela]

I have no idea on what way to vote,. Is there a place I can review the consequences without sensationalist scaremongering from both sides? 

Edited February 21, 2016 by Xela

[Davkaus]

It seems quite difficult to find any information that aren't blatantly skewed to fit someone's agenda. I'm probably voting to stay, because things are kind of alright like this.

[saturdaygig]

On 16/02/2016 at 12:33, coda said:

I don't know anymore. It's a complicated issue and I've changed my mind several times recently.

It's the perfect position. Whatever happens, if things go badly you can say you never agreed with it.

[Rugeley Villa]

30 minutes ago, Xela said:

I have no idea on what way to vote,. Is there a place I can review the consequences without sensationalist scaremongering from both sides? 

yeah the daily mail does a great job, or so im told 

[Genie]

I think we'll be safer out of the EU. Business wise I dont really expect any major problems being out. 

Kinda off topic but I predict Germany are going to be in a world of pain over the next few years taking in around 1 million migrants. Time will tell on that, I dont want the UK to go down that road and "out" seems to given more control over who we're living with. 

[Awol]

26 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

feel free to lift the level by telling us some policies

So far Cameron 'feels' we will be 'safer' in europe, Duncan Smith has said today he 'feels' we are more at threat of terrorist attack if we vote to stay in.

Please pick the facts out of that exchange.

You're right of course and the concept of "safety" can be applied across many areas.

Physical safety from military threats flows from NATO because of US involvement, without which the EU nations couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag against a serious adversary like Russia.

Safety from terrorist threats is lead by domestic intelligence and police services and information sharing on such issues is not led by EU institutions. Note the comedy of errors between German, Belgian and French intelligence agencies in the run up to the Paris attacks. UK's most effective international intelligence relationship is with the 5 eyes group which is nothing to do with the EU.

In addition the mass migration flows into Europe inevitably raise  the level of challenges in this area because the EU cannot control its external borders, and the Schengen system acts as a vector for terrorist movement within the EU as has been demonstrated. 

Securing our own borders and dictating who is allowed in would therefore have a positive effect but is in no way a silver bullet when so many terrorists are home grown. 

Economic safety is another aspect and one the Remain campaign is running hard on. It is impossible to say whether the UK would be more or less prosperous outside the EU and there are credible arguments on both sides. Won't doesn't do the debate justice is an implied situation whereby an independent UK ceases to trade with the EU. Frankly that kind of infantile scaremongering undercuts the credibility of the remain campaign by saying such obviously untrue things.

This "leap into the dark" line is also extremely tedious. We are only talking about exiting political union with the EU, not climbing into a rocket bound for Alpha Centauri. It does highlight this effort to make people fearful and afraid of taking a bold decision to change from an inward looking Eurocentric nation to an outward looking globally focused one. 

 

[Awol]

11 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think we'll be safer out of the EU. Business wise I dont really expect any major problems being out. 

Kinda off topic but I predict Germany are going to be in a world of pain over the next few years taking in around 1 million migrants. Time will tell on that, I dont want the UK to go down that road and "out" seems to given more control over who we're living with. 

Agreed, Merkel is toast. One reason Cameron wanted the referendum in June is because another 2-3 million are expected to rock up in Europe this summer. 

 Michael Gove's reasoning for backing the leave camp puts a very clear and well reasoned summary of the arguments for leaving. Worth a read for the undecided voters. 

Edited February 21, 2016 by Awol
To add

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, Awol said:

You're right of course and the concept of "safety" can be applied across many areas.

Physical safety from military threats flows from NATO because of US involvement, without which the EU nations couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag against a serious adversary like Russia.

Safety from terrorist threats is lead by domestic intelligence and police services and information sharing on such issues is not led by EU institutions. Note the comedy of errors between German, Belgian and French intelligence agencies in the run up to the Paris attacks. UK's most effective international intelligence relationship is with the 5 eyes group which is nothing to do with the EU.

In addition the mass migration flows into Europe inevitably raise  the level of challenges in this area because the EU cannot control its external borders, and the Schengen system acts as a vector for terrorist movement within the EU as has been demonstrated. 

Securing our own borders and dictating who is allowed in would therefore have a positive effect but is in no way a silver bullet when so many terrorists are home grown. 

Economic safety is another aspect and one the Remain campaign is running hard on. It is impossible to say whether the UK would be more or less prosperous outside the EU and there are credible arguments on both sides. Won't doesn't do the debate justice is an implied situation whereby an independent UK ceases to trade with the EU. Frankly that kind of infantile scaremongering undercuts the credibility of the remain campaign by saying such obviously untrue things.

This "leap into the dark" line is also extremely tedious. We are only talking about exiting political union with the EU, not climbing into a rocket bound for Alpha Centauri. It does highlight this effort to make people fearful and afraid of taking a bold decision to change from an inward looking Eurocentric nation to an outward looking globally focused one. 

 

The rest of your post has a lot of good points, but I need to highlight these two paragraphs:

1) I don't think anybody believes that we won't trade with Europe in the event of a leave vote. What people do believe is that Britain may be at risk of tariffs, and could well be excluded from the free trade zone, significantly increasing the cost of trade with Europe. We also won't get the free trade area in services in Europe, of which the UK is currently the main driver. 

2) It is a 'leap into the dark', in the sense of a risky decision with unknown consequences, and I don't see how it can be portrayed as anything else. No other country of similar size has left the EU. We know negotiations upon exit will be difficult. We know many countries will have incentives to try to punish us. We also know the effects will last for generations, positive or negative. It's fair enough to be in favour of leaving, but I don't think you can deny it's a risk. 

[Blasterpocket68]

Manufacturing hasn't done very well over the last few years in the EU. What do we build or make any more this has all fallen away. Jobs and skills are constantly watered down by cheap labour from Europe . 

Why do you think the rest of Europe are desperate for us to stay. We need control of our boarders and the ability to self govern. I'm for out ! 

[tonyh29]

Why will countries have an incentive to punish us ? Are the Germans going to give France money if they deliberately antagonise us ?

as I've said previously an Audi or a BMW isn't suddenly going to cost £5k more overnight because if it did people will buy Jugaur or Ford or one of the other cars they can buy that won't have gone up in price overnight on pure spite 

 

 

[Awol]

30 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The rest of your post has a lot of good points, but I need to highlight these two paragraphs:

1) I don't think anybody believes that we won't trade with Europe in the event of a leave vote. What people do believe is that Britain may be at risk of tariffs, and could well be excluded from the free trade zone, significantly increasing the cost of trade with Europe. We also won't get the free trade area in services in Europe, of which the UK is currently the main driver. 

2) It is a 'leap into the dark', in the sense of a risky decision with unknown consequences, and I don't see how it can be portrayed as anything else. No other country of similar size has left the EU. We know negotiations upon exit will be difficult. We know many countries will have incentives to try to punish us. We also know the effects will last for generations, positive or negative. It's fair enough to be in favour of leaving, but I don't think you can deny it's a risk. 

On the first point, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (process for a country to leave the EU) says that one of the areas to be addressed during the two year political divorce is the negotiation of a free trade agreement between the EU and the departing country.  On both a practical (UK as Germany's largest export market) and legal (WTO rules) level, I think trade tariffs are a none starter. 

The single market doesn't include services, one reason why the UK is disadvantaged within the European Economic Area. You might think that a very large carrot that Brussels could have offered Cameron was to do exactly that. Instead of completing the single market the Germans are more interested in TTIP which benefits their more manufacturing focused economy. The EU as Germany by other means..again. 

On your second point I haven't said leaving is without risk, neither is leaving the house every morning. What I don't agree with is this "leap in the dark" imagery.

If we leave we'll be a mid sized nation with the 5th largest global economy, a leading member of NATO, a permanent member of  the UN Security Council, a member of the Commonwealth containing 1/3 of global population, regain our seat on the WTO et al etc. 

That is without trying to calculate the risks of remaining within a sclerotic, power hungry and inward looking wannabe state.

Fear nought, we've spent the overwhelming majority of our history as an independent nation, leaving is a return to normality, not some huge unquantifiable terror.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Awol
ND

[OutByEaster?]

Pulling out of the EU doesn't pull us out of TTIP. It just means there'll be more signatories on the paperwork.

 

[mjmooney]

So, following on from my earlier rant, if people are going to vote for economically ill-informed, emotive knee-jerk reasons, I may as well do the same. 

The "No" camp now has Nigel Farage, George Galloway, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. That's good enough for me. A "Yes" vote it is.

[OutByEaster?]

42 minutes ago, Awol said:

It does highlight this effort to make people fearful and afraid of taking a bold decision to change from an inward looking Eurocentric nation to an outward looking globally focused one. 

And indeed the effort to make people fearful of taking a bold decision to change from an outward looking globally focused European view to an inward looking isolated British one.

(Both statements are nothing more than an emotional plea to the heartstrings, I just thought I'd give a bit of balance.)

Incidentally, today on the news I caught David Cameron using the phrase "If you love your country" as part of his Remain campaign. If we're starting on this footing then there really isn't a lot of hope for a reasoned debate with facts at the heart of it.