Proposal for fan ownership

[MikeMcKenna]

1 minute ago, TheAuthority said:

Maybe a concerted media effort would start the ball rolling? I know a lot of people dislike him but didn't Howard Hodgson try something?

It was rumoured that HH was working with some interested party but I don't know whether it was true or not. If it was, they obviously didn't like the asking price. As regards a 'concerted media effort' - it is also a non-starter - the influential fans with any connections wouldn't stick their heads up again. Apathy rules..........

[terrytini]

6 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

Before they give you anything, they will ask for evidence of funds. You will get no further information and they will not be prepared to meet if you cannot say where the money would come from. The ideas outlined above or anything like them are not "evidence of funds". Sorry but that is how it works - you will wasting your time. 

Yes I expect that. But I intend to follow the process in a logical fashion, and the logical response to their reply was to ask " how much". When they answer that I will respond to that answer. 

As for the time, I have Saturday afternoons free for at least the next season and a quarter !

Having said all that, how do you know (as fact) what happens next ? I mean, I've seen the documentaries, read the papers etc, but as a FACT I've never seen what you've stated as the case. Not doubting it for a moment, but curious as to whether there is a source.

[terrytini]

3 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

It was rumoured that HH was working with some interested party but I don't know whether it was true or not. If it was, they obviously didn't like the asking price. As regards a 'concerted media effort' - it is also a non-starter - the influential fans with any connections wouldn't stick their heads up again. Apathy rules..........

But in a way this is my point. How did he start then ? How can he have shown he had the funds if he didn't know the price ?

And if he did know the price, how come he then got put off by the price ?

And he never asked me for any money. I've not got much but.....? Did he ask you ? Any of you ? So if he didn't, how does he know he couldn't afford it ?

Is it worth talking to him first ?

[MikeMcKenna]

12 hours ago, terrytini said:

Yes I expect that. But I intend to follow the process in a logical fashion, and the logical response to their reply was to ask " how much". When they answer that I will respond to that answer. 

As for the time, I have Saturday afternoons free for at least the next season and a quarter !

Having said all that, how do you know (as fact) what happens next ? I mean, I've seen the documentaries, read the papers etc, but as a FACT I've never seen what you've stated as the case. Not doubting it for a moment, but curious as to whether there is a source.

I have bought businesses before. While the process is different for small businesses, I am certain that for a business of the nature of AVFC it is standard practice that

1. Sellers or their advisers will ask you to sign a confidentiality or non-disclosure agreement before you can access any sensitive or detailed information.
2. They will also ask for details about you and evidence of your ability to fund a purchase before releasing the above.

Before they go any further..... 

Edited February 15, 2016 by limpid
used the "list" button in the editor

[terrytini]

OK ta,

Simple soul I am, how can anyone who wants to sell something either want or need the price to be kept secret from potential buyers ? And how can they expect to be provided with evidence of sufficient funds if they don't disclose what these would be ? And if, as in our case, they allegedly see themselves as custodians for the fans and are desperate to sell, what is the advantage in all this being secret ?

I don't get it !

[MikeMcKenna]

7 minutes ago, terrytini said:

But in a way this is my point. How did he start then ? How can he have shown he had the funds if he didn't know the price ?

And if he did know the price, how come he then got put off by the price ?

And he never asked me for any money. I've not got much but.....? Did he ask you ? Any of you ? So if he didn't, how does he know he couldn't afford it ?

Is it worth talking to him first ?

I don't know that HH was actually part of any consortium. I only ever heard the rumour that he was a facilitator and even that maybe BS. If true they may not have gone any further because they could not evidence they had the funds. One of the first objectives of the sellers agents is too establish the viability of any interested buyer before even talking about the price. 

Edited February 15, 2016 by MikeMcKenna

[gilbertoAVFC]

OK ta,

Simple soul I am, how can anyone who wants to sell something either want or need the price to be kept secret from potential buyers ? And how can they expect to be provided with evidence of sufficient funds if they don't disclose what these would be ? And if, as in our case, they allegedly see themselves as custodians for the fans and are desperate to sell, what is the advantage in all this being secret ?

I don't get it !

Revealing how cheaply he'd sell now would knock more off of what he'll actually get, is my guess.

[terrytini]

Well I don't see answers to a lot of those questions so I'll keep going !

PLUS....what about things like borrowing the money against assets, like the Glazers did ? What about Lerner changing the status of the business back to a limited company and issuing shares ?

What about all the ways I don't know because I'm not a finance guy ?

I'm not convinced every avenue has been explored.

[useless]

40 minutes ago, MikeMcKenna said:

I don't know that HH was actually part of any consortium. I only ever heard the rumour that he was a facilitator and even that maybe BS. If true they may not have gone any further because they could not evidence they had the funds. One of the first objectives of the sellers agents is too establish the viability of any interested buyer before even talking about the price. 

HH (Howard Hodgson) gave an interview to Jonny Gould, and in that interview he claimed that he was advising a Chinese consortium and they agreed a fee of £150m plus another £25M for additional costs. The thing that apparently scuppered the deal was the economic crash in China. It wasn't so much that the buyers lost money but the Chinese government made it hard for money to be moved out of that country. Obviously I'm speaking from memory but I think that was the general gist, of what Hodgson said. For what it's worth he also said that there was also a US consortium, but that deal collapsed too, but he wasn't privy to the goings on with that deal.

Edited February 15, 2016 by useless

[TheAuthority]

Re: Glazers
The only reason banks or anyone will lend you money is so that they make interest on it. The Glazers  borrowed money from the banks against they're assets i.e. Tampa NFL team etc. That covers the banks arse if Manure goes tits up while they're in it for £700 million.

So in theory if we were trying to raise we would need 10 business men whose companies were worth £10 million each (or 4 worth £25 etc.)

This consortium would go to a bank and present a business plan/idea which includes paying the bank/investment firm back plus interest. The bank says "yes, that sounds like easy money for us," pre-approves a loan and then you start negotiating with Mr. Lerner. My sense only from social media was that HH was involved somehow with a group such as this.

My original post though was to get Randy to hand over the club for a token amount and here's why.
The situation he finds himself in is similar to owning a classic car which you've neglected to maintain. The only way you're ever going to get close to what you've put into it is by putting even more money into it. The only way we'll get out of the championship is by investing in the squad. (However noises from Hollis now seem to indicate that he won't be investing.)
Or you can sell the car for scrap and walk away. In Lerner's case, selling it for scrap would be giving it to the fans for a token amount.

Believe it or not, Randy's naivety/stupid/complete lack of business sense is the only silver lining. He didn't borrow anyone else's money or get funding for AVFC. He used his and his family foundations money. This was unbelievably stupid of him, but ultimately stops us from 'doing a Portsmouth' at least for now. Rockefeller said never use your own money to do something if someone else will lend it to you, but Randy is a chump as we know. In 2006 with a strong economy his family probably didn't mind him playing around a bit with his trust fund and it was probably a good tax write-off. Now however AVFC is probably eating into their principal and I'm sure Nancy Lerner does not like that.

[HanoiVillan]

30 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Well I don't see answers to a lot of those questions so I'll keep going !

PLUS....what about things like borrowing the money against assets, like the Glazers did ? What about Lerner changing the status of the business back to a limited company and issuing shares ?

What about all the ways I don't know because I'm not a finance guy ?

I'm not convinced every avenue has been explored.

Terry, the point about them asking for evidence of funds is this: they won't give you any information because they will suspect - correctly suspect, in fact - that you don't have any access to financing so all they will be doing is giving you sensitive information for no return. If they realise you're a commenter on a forum, who is almost certain to share that information with other fans, they're even less likely to give it to you. Even if they did, you would sign a non-disclosure agreement which would prevent you from organising the financing because you couldn't tell anyone how much you needed to raise. 

The way deals like this are done in real life is that MegaRichGuy decides he wants to sell a football club, so he asks businesspeople who know loads of MegaRichPeople if any of them have ever shown any interest in buying a football club, and then there's a lot of tentative back-and-forth between these billionaires through the middlemen (who have signed non-disclosure agreements and so will never leak information). The seller seeks out buyers who he feels confident have the money, they don't just tell anyone for anyone to make a bid. 

You're a Normal Person and you don't have access to these informal back channels, nor do you have any financing or a credible way of putting it in place, so sooner or later they will just stall. Even when supporters' takeovers have happened, they are usually headed by a prominent local businessman. 

[maqroll]

4 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

This is just my amateur idea. Has anyone else got any hope of how a fan takeover could happen?

I've posted on here before regarding supporter takeovers but for this that and the other, nobody seems to think it's feasible, even though it's been done before at other clubs.

Maybe a consortium of ex-Villa players, wealthy Villa fans and whoever else those groups can bring together could make a move to buy the club. 

I'd cough up 1,000 pounds for a stake. But the major stumbling block is not the purchase price, but everything that comes after; transfer fees, wages, etc. Nightmare.

But there is a very real and disturbing possibility of getting relegated AGAIN next year, so this is a full blown crisis IMO. Lerner and his pack of idiots will continue to destroy the club unless something gives. 

There is a website that exists to help fans in this pursuit, usually for smaller clubs, but it could be useful to us. Dunno, my head is still trying to make sense of yesterday's humiliation. I just can't believe this is happening.

[TheAuthority]

15 minutes ago, maqroll said:

 I'd cough up 1,000 pounds for a stake. But the major stumbling block is not the purchase price, but everything that comes after; transfer fees, wages, etc. Nightmare.

In a fan owned situation I would imagine that the tv revenue goes to player acquisition and wages. Gate receipts, sponsorship and merchandise to support staff wages and infrastructure. Swansea is run by Huw Jenkins and a fan led consortium so it's not impossible for a premier league team to stand alone and do it.

FFS we are still in the the top 20/25 clubs IN THE WORLD for revenue! How Lerner has done what he's done is just unbelievable. 

I agree that yesterdays humiliation is just mind numbing.

[Godders]

I can understand the fact that BoA would want to see evidence of funds. RL has a price in mind. Potential buyers of AVFC will have a price in mind. The first job for BoA is to see if those two figures are in the same ballpark. If not, there's no point doing anything else as it would be waste of everyone's time. BoA will also want to see evidence that the buyers can actually afford that sum, again to stop time wasters. If the two figures are in the same ballpark, and the buyer has shown they can afford it, then the buyer and his representatives will do due diligence, finalise negotiations etc.

If RL is actually a villa fan, then the evidence of funds that needs to be seen is likely to be significantly more than the price of the club that's being mooted as he knows first hand how much of cash drain a football club is. 

I've never bought a club before- this is purely my speculation as to the process.

In short, unless we've got upwards of £300 million sat in an account somewhere, or can evidence who is willing to provide us that amount (and by evidence i mean a banks representatives stating that they're going to lend us the money- a business plan based on fans possibly buying shares won't cut it), we're not going to be given the time of day here.

If the OP is serious about getting this idea off the ground, I would suggest the first step is to do a little research. Go out to foreign and domestic supporters clubs, hit up social media with the idea, speak to fans outside VP on matchdays and try and get a flavour for actually how many people would be willing to part with the sorts of sums that's needed to fund this.

 

[lexicon]

What about 51% fan ownership with Lerner as the 49%? Then he can sell the rest when he finds someone. 

[Didiersix]

9 minutes ago, lexicon said:

What about 51% fan ownership with Lerner as the 49%? Then he can sell the rest when he finds someone. 

Yeah this needs to be the way to approach it in my opinion. As has been mentioned on this thread, there is no way Lerner will put any more money into the club - his family won't let him. But - and this is just thinking off the top of my head - is there no way a deal could be arranged where a fan led consortium could start buying the club back from him in instalments? If say, we agreed to buy 51% over five to ten years - a gradual transition where he gets his money back?

[Godders]

1 hour ago, lexicon said:

What about 51% fan ownership with Lerner as the 49%? Then he can sell the rest when he finds someone. 

Unfortunately I think this would be more difficult to work than 100% ownership. 

If RL is not willing to invest now, he won't be if he owns 49% either. So, the fans will still have to stump up all the investment, the same as they would under the 100% ownership option, but this time, we'll only see half of any returns. On the face of it, it doubles the risk involved.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, lexicon said:

What about 51% fan ownership with Lerner as the 49%? Then he can sell the rest when he finds someone. 

Because obviously that leaves him masssively exposed to downside risk without the power to do much about the direction of the club. He would never agree to that in a million years, and nor should he. 

[PussEKatt]

I dont understand this level of finance but can I ask a simple question.

Where does the money come from to, 1- sack the board and replace and pay them off.2- buy players.

 

[mwj]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

Because obviously that leaves him masssively exposed to downside risk without the power to do much about the direction of the club. He would never agree to that in a million years, and nor should he. 

Agreed but at the same time he might be willing to take the cash (at the right price) and limit his potential downside to ONLY 49% 

51% of £200m will be easier to raise (for some definition of easier) than 100%