Steven Hollis

[VillaCas]

21 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

FFP actually happened. 

It's not as clear cut as that though. A higher spend may have equalled a higher finish, more prize money and more commercial revenue i.e. an upwards spiral instead of the downward spiral we are currently on

[VillaCas]

On 27/01/2016 at 11:59, VillaCas said:

In order to assist Mr Hollis with his review, I took a look back at our transfer dealings during Lerner's tenure.  I looked at how much each manager spent, each managers net spend, the profit/loss made by each manager on their own signings and an adjusted profit/loss taking into account players still at the club

MON   Spent 130m  Net 61m  Profit -47m  AdjProfit -47m

HOU   Spent 24m    Net 19m  Profit -24m  AdjProfit -24m

McL    Spent 18m    Net -22m Profit -5m   AdjProfit -18m

LAM   Spent 47m    Net 42m  Profit +9m   AdjProfit  +28m

SHE   Spent 53m    Net 9m    Profit n/a    AdjProfit  n/a

Totals Spent £271m Net £108m (additionally £25m raised from sales of players already at the club on Lerner's arrival and £23m raised from sales of academy players)

Further looking at these figures it's really alarming that a large part of the money spent by MON and all the money spent by HOU and McL was completely wasted. Net losses of £80m on signed players during that period. We were signing lots of players for large sums who eventually we let go for peanuts or nothing at all.  It's tempting to blame the managers but human nature is that they buy with a view to being successful here and now. Lerner and his henchmen (Krulak, Faulkner) should have been looking at the long term and better managing the player assets

I also looked again at the players we bought during the summer. 

- It was clear that Guzan was struggling. We should have signed a keeper

- Vlaar left a big hole but Richards, Lescott and Amavi seem to me just enough to strengthen the defence (a further CB would have been useful but not essential) Garde seems to have them organised even without Amavi, so for me the initial problem here was Sherwood. 

- We left ourselves light in midfield with Delph's departure. Gana, Veretout and Ayew were good purchases but I think we were one player short. I'd have gone for a quality solid DMF

- Upfront we have not even begun to replace Benteke.  Gestede for 6m is an OK option on the bench but not a starter (but I'd have saved £6m and had Kozak as my option on the bench - Sherwood's fault)

In summary, we should have signed a keeper (£6m?), DMF (£12m?)and Striker (£12m).  Traore was the wrong purchase for us. Potentially very good but not ready - that was a mistake. in hindsight £8m could have been better spent elsewhere.  The other big mistake was a huge over-estimation of Grealish's abilities. This I think will have coloured the thinking as to what we needed upfront (I blame Sherwood for this)

So all in all a mix of not enough spent (£30m or £16m if we hadn't signed Traore and Gestede) plus a number of wrong decisions in hindsight. I think Sherwood's impact on all of this shouldnt be underestimated and by extention Fox for bringing him in in the first place.

 

[Grasshopper]

23 hours ago, VillaCas said:

This argument doesnt stack up. RL absolutely wants to stay in the PL - his mistake is he either thought he could do it without spending on another DB or he now feels that its too far gone for that

Now that we are bottom, through RL's recent and past strategy, the penny must have dropped that we "could" go down.

Decision time.

1) Want to stay in PL? Do something about it

2) Accept we're going down? Do nothing

3) Take a chance on stayin up? Do nothing = playing safe <-> delusional

Do something "nominal"? May/may not work = responsible/irresponsible attitude

which one would you say is RL?

what you/I think is irrelevant.

What RL does is.

I can't honestly say that I'm confident of 1)

2) & 3) look more likely to me

[VillaCas]

1 hour ago, Grasshopper said:

Now that we are bottom, through RL's recent and past strategy, the penny must have dropped that we "could" go down.

Decision time.

1) Want to stay in PL? Do something about it

2) Accept we're going down? Do nothing

3) Take a chance on stayin up? Do nothing = playing safe <-> delusional

Do something "nominal"? May/may not work = responsible/irresponsible attitude

which one would you say is RL?

what you/I think is irrelevant.

What RL does is.

I can't honestly say that I'm confident of 1)

2) & 3) look more likely to me

I think he is pretty much resigned to going down and all other things being equal he wouldnt now fork out for additional players

However, keeping Garde onside might force his hand slightly.  There must have been some agreement with Garde around what support he could expect. I imagine that most of that support will come in the summer but I think we will sign a GK and a loan or two before deadline day, just to show he has fulfilled (ha!) his promises to Garde.

Debuchy, Remy and a decent GK and I still think we have a very slim glimmer of hope. Shortsighted not to have bought in a striker from 1st Jan though

[TRO]

On 27 January 2016 at 11:02, VillaCas said:

 

While Hollis' is "trying to understand" we are plummeting into the Championship. A reasonable amount spent at the start of the window on a decent striker could easily have seen us half a dozen points further on.

I've explained this before, but if Hollis seriously believes that the money spent in the summer was wasted then he would have no choice but to sack one or all of Reilly, Fox and Halmstadt.  I will bet that he won't do that. Why? because the "review" is just a ploy to withdraw funding for the time being.

You ask if "my" six players will still be here in 12 months time. Firstly, they're not "my" players, I merely said that I think that we got value for money and that to me the transfer committee is doing ok (not stellar, but ok). If they're not here in 12 months it will be because Hollis' review has contributed to us being in the Championship

"Your players"was referring to "your mention" in that context....I'm dubious of us getting value for money, when I look around many other signings in the prem....either that or we just fail to get value out of good players.

the rest of your post is feasible and difficult to argue with.

I have no idea what Hollis has found in his early appraisal of the goings on at B6, but I was interested to hear Tom Ross mooting similar doubts as you after meeting Hollis at Villa park.

Me I find it hard to be too critical, so early.

 

 

[VillaCas]

18 hours ago, TRO said:

"Your players"was referring to "your mention" in that context....I'm dubious of us getting value for money, when I look around many other signings in the prem....either that or we just fail to get value out of good players.

the rest of your post is feasible and difficult to argue with.

I have no idea what Hollis has found in his early appraisal of the goings on at B6, but I was interested to hear Tom Ross mooting similar doubts as you after meeting Hollis at Villa park.

Me I find it hard to be too critical, so early.

I agree that you can point to random players here and there that appear to offer better value than Ayew, Veretout, Gana and Amavi but I don't think that you could point to a team who have bought four players in for £34m who offer substantially more. 

It is a shame that Amavi is injured because 1) I think he would have been the spark that we needed to give half a dozen more points and 2) I think he would have been one of those other teams would have pointed to that was a brilliant buy (supposition on my part)

Another thing to factor in are the wage demands of seemingly bargain players.  We wanted Sissoko who went to Newcastle - a bargain at £6m but he also wanted £65k a week.  Commentators keep saying we were fools to let Albrighton go but he went to Leicester for a reputed £45k a week. We are looking for both bargain fees and bargain wages. Not easy

Southampton seem to bring really good at bringing players in but maybe our new transfer committee has finally got things right as well.  For me Sherwood muddled the waters by not integrating the new players and so we have yet to see the best of them. We will know more about the transfer commttee once the next batch of signings arrive (whenever that my be)

Hollis couldnt have made a worse start to his tenure for me - stupid statements, terrible terrible interview on Midlands Today, a lust for the limelight, clearly knows nothing about football, at odds with Fox and every time the bloke spoke "Villa in Crisis" headlines ensued. Awful appointment in my opinion.

I'm very worried that Garde will get pissed off by the whole thing. The lack of backing can't have been what was agreed when he came onboard. I'm reading very worrying quotes about the Debuchy situation. Personally if I was Garde I would be thinking hard about if this is the best place to gamble with my career.

If Garde goes it will signal disaster for Villa and the finger will be firmly pointing at Hollis. 

Terrible, short-sighted Lerner appointment from a long line of terrible, short-sighted Lerner appointments

[TRO]

21 minutes ago, VillaCas said:

I agree that you can point to random players here and there that appear to offer better value than Ayew, Veretout, Gana and Amavi but I don't think that you could point to a team who have bought four players in for £34m who offer substantially more. 

It is a shame that Amavi is injured because 1) I think he would have been the spark that we needed to give half a dozen more points and 2) I think he would have been one of those other teams would have pointed to that was a brilliant buy (supposition on my part)

Another thing to factor in are the wage demands of seemingly bargain players.  We wanted Sissoko who went to Newcastle - a bargain at £6m but he also wanted £65k a week.  Commentators keep saying we were fools to let Albrighton go but he went to Leicester for a reputed £45k a week. We are looking for both bargain fees and bargain wages. Not easy

Southampton seem to bring really good at bringing players in but maybe our new transfer committee has finally got things right as well.  For me Sherwood muddled the waters by not integrating the new players and so we have yet to see the best of them. We will know more about the transfer commttee once the next batch of signings arrive (whenever that my be)

Hollis couldnt have made a worse start to his tenure for me - stupid statements, terrible terrible interview on Midlands Today, a lust for the limelight, clearly knows nothing about football, at odds with Fox and every time the bloke spoke "Villa in Crisis" headlines ensued. Awful appointment in my opinion.

I'm very worried that Garde will get pissed off by the whole thing. The lack of backing can't have been what was agreed when he came onboard. I'm reading very worrying quotes about the Debuchy situation. Personally if I was Garde I would be thinking hard about if this is the best place to gamble with my career.

If Garde goes it will signal disaster for Villa and the finger will be firmly pointing at Hollis. 

Terrible, short-sighted Lerner appointment from a long line of terrible, short-sighted Lerner appointments

good points.....I think if Garde goes it will put the cat amongst the pidgeons.

I think he (Remi) might be our only hope of restoring sanity/decency.

Lets see on Hollis, I'm hoping in terms of the football side( which is only what I'm interested in) He leaves Remi to get on with it.....but yes, Remi does need support.

Edited January 29, 2016 by TRO

[TRO]

On 1/27/2016 at 13:58, VillaCas said:

Further looking at these figures it's really alarming that a large part of the money spent by MON and all the money spent by HOU and McL was completely wasted. Net losses of £80m on signed players during that period. We were signing lots of players for large sums who eventually we let go for peanuts or nothing at all.  It's tempting to blame the managers but human nature is that they buy with a view to being successful here and now. Lerner and his henchmen (Krulak, Faulkner) should have been looking at the long term and better managing the player assets

I also looked again at the players we bought during the summer. 

- It was clear that Guzan was struggling. We should have signed a keeper

- Vlaar left a big hole but Richards, Lescott and Amavi seem to me just enough to strengthen the defence (a further CB would have been useful but not essential) Garde seems to have them organised even without Amavi, so for me the initial problem here was Sherwood. 

- We left ourselves light in midfield with Delph's departure. Gana, Veretout and Ayew were good purchases but I think we were one player short. I'd have gone for a quality solid DMF

- Upfront we have not even begun to replace Benteke.  Gestede for 6m is an OK option on the bench but not a starter (but I'd have saved £6m and had Kozak as my option on the bench - Sherwood's fault)

In summary, we should have signed a keeper (£6m?), DMF (£12m?)and Striker (£12m).  Traore was the wrong purchase for us. Potentially very good but not ready - that was a mistake. in hindsight £8m could have been better spent elsewhere.  The other big mistake was a huge over-estimation of Grealish's abilities. This I think will have coloured the thinking as to what we needed upfront (I blame Sherwood for this)

So all in all a mix of not enough spent (£30m or £16m if we hadn't signed Traore and Gestede) plus a number of wrong decisions in hindsight. I think Sherwood's impact on all of this shouldnt be underestimated and by extention Fox for bringing him in in the first place.

 

VC well put on both counts

You basically sum up all my thoughts....entirely.

I'm not trying to be clever, but I said to friends ( I may have said it on here, not sure) that when O'Neill left this will set this club back c10 years.....not because he spent too much in my view....because too many of his signings, we derived little value from and they did not contribute to building a team that could sustain anything in the longer term.

I think he signed c 40 players of which half a dozen "were worth writing home about"

After that it just got considerably worse as you point out.

I've kinda lost all sense of belonging now.

I just see a patchwork quilt, not a team......as errors or shortfalls appear we seem to just plug it with another signing, that generally turns out duff.

I also think the word has well and truly got around the game of what a mess we are in......I feel for Remi.

PS The accuracy of the figures are irrelevant imo( I'm sure they are close).....its the picture it paints is the crucial bit.

Edited January 29, 2016 by TRO

[TRO]

Villa Cas writes so much sense in his last few posts.....can the club not see it? when some/many fans can.

 

ps not saying your prior  posts are inferior.....you know what I mean.....I'll stop digging now.

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by TRO

[HanoiVillan]

13 minutes ago, TRO said:

Villa Cas writes so much sense in his last few posts

 

Well ladies and gentlemen, it was forged in conflict, but those of us gathered here today will look back in years to come and say, 'I was lucky enough to be there at the birth of a beautiful friendship'

[TRO]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

Well ladies and gentlemen, it was forged in conflict, but those of us gathered here today will look back in years to come and say, 'I was lucky enough to be there at the birth of a beautiful friendship'

.....conflict can bring the best out in you.

not really, He's cleverer than me, I have just sneakily conceded, until you blew my cover.lol

rubbish.....I sincerely thought his posts were on the money.

[PussEKatt]

23 hours ago, Grasshopper said:

Now that we are bottom, through RL's recent and past strategy, the penny must have dropped that we "could" go down.

Decision time.

1) Want to stay in PL? Do something about it

2) Accept we're going down? Do nothing

3) Take a chance on stayin up? Do nothing = playing safe <-> delusional

Do something "nominal"? May/may not work = responsible/irresponsible attitude

which one would you say is RL?

what you/I think is irrelevant.

What RL does is.

I can't honestly say that I'm confident of 1)

2) & 3) look more likely to me

None of the above:

His thoughts are. 1- spend to buy better players...cost a lot of $$$

                            2- Hire Hollis and make the club run more efficiently ( not do better in the league ) run more efficiently.

He took the cheaper option, which he has been doing for years.

[theboyangel]

Already want this man out of the club.... I cannot see anything positive coming from his appointment.

Like that's going to happen

[useless]

He's just doing what he's been told by Lerner. If Randy said to him there's £50m to spend, he wouldn't have come out and said that spending money is not the answer. If he's here to reflect some of the bad sentiments away from Rand's direction, then it certainly seems to be working. In reality he's probably just a glorified accountant, but the club announced him as Chairman because they mistakenly believed it would be well received with him being local based.

[KHV]

5 minutes ago, theboyangel said:

Already want this man out of the club....

Why?, he hasn't really done much so far

[PussEKatt]

2 minutes ago, KHV said:

Why?, he hasn't really done much so far

Thats exactly it.He hasent done much, we should be getting used to that sort of performance by now ?!

 

[KHV]

1 minute ago, PussEKatt said:

Thats exactly it.He hasent done much, we should be getting used to that sort of performance by now ?!

 

What exactly are people expecting the new chairman to do instantly?

[Zatman]

4 minutes ago, KHV said:

What exactly are people expecting the new chairman to do instantly?

well Doug invented the overhead kick. Thats what I want from a chairman

[VillaCas]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

VC well put on both counts

You basically sum up all my thoughts....entirely.

I'm not trying to be clever, but I said to friends ( I may have said it on here, not sure) that when O'Neill left this will set this club back c10 years.....not because he spent too much in my view....because too many of his signings, we derived little value from and they did not contribute to building a team that could sustain anything in the longer term.

I think he signed c 40 players of which half a dozen "were worth writing home about"

After that it just got considerably worse as you point out.

I've kinda lost all sense of belonging now.

I just see a patchwork quilt, not a team......as errors or shortfalls appear we seem to just plug it with another signing, that generally turns out duff.

I also think the word has well and truly got around the game of what a mess we are in......I feel for Remi.

PS The accuracy of the figures are irrelevant imo( I'm sure they are close).....its the picture it paints is the crucial bit.

I think this is all to do with the changing nature of football. In the old days managers were with clubs longer and problems caused in their first years would come back to haunt them later.

I can't blame MON - today managers get very little time to make an impact. The natural temptation is not to worry about the long term and not to worry about the future finances of the club (as a manager I would spend as much as they let me).

Alongside a manager you also need a couterbalance who is looking to the future. The very biggest mistake Lerner made was to not get a football man to advise him. Someone to say Heskey? is that the best buy for us? Harewood? could we find better longer term etc etc

With the lack of a striker I think our goose is cooked this season. If we can keep Garde (big IF) we have a chance of coming back next season. If we blow that chance we are amongst 8 or 10 similar teams and need a huge slice of luck

I'm close to giving up - It really depresses me and I do think that football should be enjoyment rather than a constant reason for gloom and disappointment.

[PussEKatt]

7 minutes ago, KHV said:

What exactly are people expecting the new chairman to do instantly?

Like I said,more than he has so far..........................that ahouldent be too hard.