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England v Estonia


andykeenan
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Just to add to the tedious nature of these two games, I've done some number crunching in regards to the effect these 2 remaining qualifiers can have on England's pool seeding for the tournament (based from here, so anything below could be a big pile of nonsense):

There are 6 groups of 4 in Euro 2016, so there are 4 pots of 6 teams.  Teams are seeded according to their "UEFA Ranking" which is based on Qualification and performance for and during Euro 2012 and WC 2014 along with qualification for 2016.  These "performances" are made up of points - you get roughly 1660 points for a win in a 6 team group, 800 for a draw and 360 for a loss (and these are affected by goals scored & conceded).

France and  Spain (as hosts and holders) will be in pot 1 anyway.  Leaving 4 remaining places to fight over - the current standing are (total current points in brackets):

1. Germany (38236) 2. Spain (34662) 3. France (33599) 4. England (32662) 5. Netherlands (31679) 6. Belgium (31142) 7. Portugal (31088) 8. Italy (31084) 9. Russia (28085)

With the 2 "automatic" seeds in the top 6 above, there it'll be the top 4 sides around them to make it to the top pot.  As far as I can see, only Portugal and Italy look like they can gatecrash the top seeds - Russia can manage ~31500 points with 2 stonking wins, however Belgium will stay above them even with 2 defeats (on ~31700 points). 

In order for Portugal to overtake England, they need to gain 1574 points.  As they're in a 5 team group, they gain more points for each game.   For Italy to overtake England, they need to gain 1578 points over England.  If The Netherlands fail to make the playoffs (Turkey taking 4 points from their 2 games against already qualified nations would see this happen, whatever the Dutch do), both teams along with Belgium will need to overhaul England to drop the Three Lions into pot 2.  Should the Dutch pull it out of the bag and squeak through the playoffs, the Dutch, Belgians and one of Portugal or Italy would need to overtake England.

Two England losses would see them on ~33300 points, requiring Portugal to gain 2294 points (a win -2050 points- and a loss -450 points- would do it, two draws -1000 points- wouldn't probably be enough).  Italy would need a win and a draw, Belgium would also need a win and a draw.  The Netherlands would need a win (two draws wouldn't be enough either).

An England draw and loss would put them on ~33800 points.  Portugal and Holland would need a win and a draw, Italy and Belgium would need 2 wins.

England winning 1 game and losing another = ~34600 points:  Portugal and Holland would need 2 wins, Italy and Belgium couldn't overtake England.

England getting a win and a draw = ~35100 points:  Portugal would probably overtake England with 2 wins. Holland wouldn't be able to overtake England.

Two England wins = ~35900 points.  England would be in the top seed pot whatever happens (aside 

 

Long story short:

If either England win either game, (assuming my maths hasn't failed me) they'll be looking forward to being top seeds in France and drawing Italy, Wales and Albania in the group stages.

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have a like for the effort at least! :P

 

I think we'll win both - it helps not having that rotund has been Rooney in there any more.

 

We'll win both matches 1/2-0 in an absolute snorefest, but still come away with a perfect 12/12.  :s

Edited by Rodders
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A team filled with players I don't like managed by a manager who is as dull as the football he oversees.

Couldn't careless. 

Could be worse. Us Scots have a team filled with players we've never heard of who only dream of being able to play dull football.

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Lovely goal from Theo there, brilliantly timed that run.  He does score quite a lot of goals considering he doesn't appear to be able to hit a cow's arse with a banjo most of the time. 

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I thought it was as boring as ****! Hard to judge because it's finished, we've qualified, walcotts goal was a thing of beauty, great run, brilliant ball, brilliant composed finish (it's bollocks that Walcott can't finish) I know woy toes the party line and says he's more or less there but I struggle to find anything exciting about us, vardy did nothing wrong but he's still Jamie **** vardy, Barkley had a great game but he's still the 9th second coming since gazza

With no villa player on show I really struggle to be interested

Fwiw I think Roy has a shape, he's got a formation, he's got an idea, if he sticks with it I think we might be ok, if he changes it because he's trying to shoe horn players in (ie like every other England manager in my life, including himself criminally in Brazil) then we'll fail again, my judgment is out on Roy until everyone is fit and he had to drop someone

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