villaglint Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, blandy said: Yeah, I know. We've got a bunch of demonic bell ends who will sell us for meat v another bunch of untrustworthy bell ends who say they want to end world hunger. Either way we're ****, but I suppose the ones who want to end world hunger are a bit nicer sounding. You also have to factor in one side has close to zero chance of forming the majority they need to end world hunger so their policies will be moderated somewhat by whoever they choose to partner with. The other side has a pretty strong chance of getting the majority they need to sell us for meat. Still will of the people I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, villaglint said: You also have to factor in one side has close to zero chance of forming the majority they need to end world hunger so their policies will be moderated somewhat by whoever they choose to partner with. The other side has a pretty strong chance of getting the majority they need to sell us for meat. Still will of the people I suppose. Totally agree. There is not a cat in hells chance that Labour will get in on their own. They will need propping up at the very least by the SNP. I'd imagine that alone will ensure the most radical of their proposals won't see the light of day. For me as a remainer with Labour I know I'll get another stab at staying in the EU and at worse leaving but with a soft form of Brexit. I also think that they will help those who most need it in the country and will protect our public services most importantly our NHS. If that ends up costing me a few more quid (I don't earn over 80k by the way but imagine it may have a knock on effect in other ways) then so be it. We know with the Tories how much damage they can do even in coalition so it would be a real horror story if we wake up on Friday the 13th to find they have won a majority with this rabid mob. Edited November 23, 2019 by markavfc40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 23, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, villaglint said: You also have to factor in one side has close to zero chance of forming the majority they need to end world hunger so their policies will be moderated somewhat by whoever they choose to partner with. The other side has a pretty strong chance of getting the majority they need to sell us for meat. Still will of the people I suppose. Trouble is, the SNP can't effectively (they don't vote on English only laws) and the LibeDems claim they will not If there's no clear majority, those three betwen them may form a govt of Nat Unity over Brexit (even that is doubtful), this will end up in the inevitable referendum and shortly after that we'll be back to square one and another election. Or the Tories get a mjority and we're done for I'm not sure there's anyone to partner with the Tories in a coalition (or a supply deal like the DUP) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, bickster said: If there's no clear majority, those three betwen them may form a govt of Nat Unity over Brexit (even that is doubtful), this will end up in the inevitable referendum and shortly after that we'll be back to square one and another election. I think you are probably right. If another referendum results in the country deciding to remain though we go into another election with that issue off the table and I think that leaves the Tories in their present form right up shit creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 23, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, markavfc40 said: I think you are probably right. If another referendum results in the country deciding to remain though we go into another election with that issue off the table and I think that leaves the Tories in their present form right up shit creek. Hmmm I suspect as always they have many paddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, bickster said: Hmmm I suspect as always they have many paddles Possibly. They have based this whole election though pretty much on getting Brexit done and some proven bullshit about building 40 new hospitals. They have a dire record over the last 9 and half years so have used this getting Brexit done bollocks as a means to deflect away from that record. Without that cover though and their dire time in government still fresh in the memory their next campaign will be interesting. Obviously it would be under a different leader. Edited November 23, 2019 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 23 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I think you are probably right. If another referendum results in the country deciding to remain though we go into another election with that issue off the table and I think that leaves the Tories in their present form right up shit creek. That won't happen. The Tories would boycott the referendum, as would Farage, and then deny that it has any democratic legitimacy afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted November 23, 2019 Moderator Share Posted November 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: That won't happen. The Tories would boycott the referendum, as would Farage, and then deny that it has any democratic legitimacy afterwards. Good, it would be hilarious. Pretty much every time one side boycotts an election, they lose EDIT: Jezza can always campaign to leave in the interests of fairness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: That won't happen. The Tories would boycott the referendum, as would Farage, and then deny that it has any democratic legitimacy afterwards. I couldn't see that happening but if they throw their toys out with the bath water so be it. If the country votes to remain article 50 is revoked and not a thing they can do about it. If they were stupid enough to then go into the next election on a ticket of leaving the EU with either a deal they can negotiate or no deal, which would require another referendum, then the country wouldn't go along with that. This is their chance to get their form of Brexit. They mess this up they aren't getting another shot any time soon. Edited November 23, 2019 by markavfc40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 I think there’s some maths based on some very wishful thinking going on there. Leave won the referendum by 52 / 48, they’ve then been the largest party in Westminster. Now they are potentially a majority govt in the next parliament or certainly the largest party. To go from those facts to losing the election and giving up on leaving is a huge leap. Best offer on the table for remain is a hung parliament and keep kicking everything down the road. With the awkward truth being a Labour / SNP working majority could lead to a Scottish referendum which could lead to perpetual tory government for England and Wales. On the plus side, its stopped raining and I’m going out for a walk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, markavfc40 said: I couldn't see that happening but if they throw their toys out with the bath water so be it. If the country votes to remain article 50 is revoked and not a thing they can do about it. If they were stupid enough to then go into the next election on a ticket of leaving the EU with either a deal they can negotiate or no deal, which would require another referendum, then the country wouldn't go along with that. This is their chance to get their form of Brexit. They mess this up they aren't getting another shot any time soon. I don't think that's right at all. They will claim they have been 'betrayed' by a choice between a 'Brexit in name only' and 'No Brexit', and somewhere between 42% of the public (the Tories' current poll numbers) or 49% (the proportion saying they want to leave the EU) would agree completely. That would create a highly-motivated bloc of resentful voters with a single, simple, powerful message, which is 'vote Tory to leave the EU'. They wouldn't even admit to needing another referendum, because they would argue that the mandate from 2016 outweighed the mandate from 2019, since they had boycotted it. Brexit as an issue isn't going anywhere any time soon. Not while nearly 50% of the public, and the entire Conservative party, fervently want it. Labour's Brexit plan is better than any of the alternatives, but we shouldn't be blind to what would follow. Edited November 23, 2019 by HanoiVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't think that's right at all. They will claim they have been 'betrayed' by a choice between a 'Brexit in name only' and 'No Brexit', You have basically described the choice voters have now. Pretty much the only policy the Tories are running on is get Brexit done. The choice is either that or another referendum under a Labour led government with a choice of soft brexit or revoke. As I said in my last post this is the Tories chance to get their form of Brexit and there is a good chance they will. If they don't then it will mean the country have rejected it knowing full well what the alternative is. If they were then stupid enough to go into another election giving the electorate basically the same choice they have now then great. Edited November 23, 2019 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: You have basically described the choice voters have now. Pretty much the only policy the Tories are running on is get Brexit done. The choice is either that or another referendum under a Labour led government with a choice of soft brexit or revoke. As I said in my last post this is the Tories chance to get their form of Brexit and there is a good chance they will. If they don't then it will mean the country have rejected it knowing full well what the alternative is. 'Leavers' and 'the Tories' are obviously largely overlapping groups, but for the purposes of this discussion they are not the same thing. If the Tories somehow lose the election - and I agree it looks like a very long shot at this point, but I live in hope - then they will have suffered a repudiation of their politics and agenda. But the concept of 'leaving the EU' will not have been rejected at the ballot box, and leavers will not act as if it has. I don't know what to tell you; there's **** loads of them, the same proportion as in 2016, and they're not just going to melt away into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: 'Leavers' and 'the Tories' are obviously largely overlapping groups, but for the purposes of this discussion they are not the same thing. If the Tories somehow lose the election - and I agree it looks like a very long shot at this point, but I live in hope - then they will have suffered a repudiation of their politics and agenda. But the concept of 'leaving the EU' will not have been rejected at the ballot box, and leavers will not act as if it has. I don't know what to tell you; there's **** loads of them, the same proportion as in 2016, and they're not just going to melt away into the night. I fully understand where you are coming from and that you think leavers and Tories aren't the same thing now. If we have another referendum and end up with a soft Brexit or revoke, which is the alternative to voting Tory now, then all leavers will suddenly become Tories in the next election. I don't see why they wouldn't just cut out the middle bit and vote for them now. Edited November 23, 2019 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: I don't see why they wouldn't just cut out the middle bit and vote for them now. We're possibly at risk of going round in circles a little bit, because I expect that they largely will vote for them, including plenty who wouldn't vote Tory normally, and so that's why I'm pessimistic about the result and why our conversation about what would happen after a Labour victory is highly hypothetical. However, those leavers who won't vote Tory in this election because they just never will, or because other issues are more important to them, won't all suddenly stop being leavers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 @HanoiVillan fair enough mate I do understand where you are coming from. Let's hope we get to the point where this whole scenario is relevant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, markavfc40 said: @HanoiVillan fair enough mate I do understand where you are coming from. Let's hope we get to the point where this whole scenario is relevant. Absolutely mate. Trying to keep spirits up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Trying to keep spirits up. This might help: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 minute ago, snowychap said: This might help: Thanks - I needed that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 22 hours ago, blandy said: Yeah, I know. We've got a bunch of demonic bell ends who will sell us for meat v another bunch of untrustworthy bell ends who say they want to end world hunger. Either way we're ****, but I suppose the ones who want to end world hunger are a bit nicer sounding. This is where we're at, and throwing votes at the Libs in constituencies where they're not there or thereabouts is mental. 18 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Best offer on the table for remain is a hung parliament and keep kicking everything down the road. With the awkward truth being a Labour / SNP working majority could lead to a Scottish referendum which could lead to perpetual tory government for England and Wales. The Murdoch plot, years in the making, coming to fruition. Aided and abetted by other tax dodging media barons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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