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Where are we finishing

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Eighth means that apart from the guaranteed 6, we are only bested by one other team from Swansea, Southampton, Everton, West Ham and Palace.  Not a chance in hell IMHO.

 

 

That's a depressingly realistic way of looking at it.

 

 

Only if you think the top 6 are guaranteed.

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I wasn't sure where to put this (or if it has been around this forum already as i've been away for a bit), anyway the image below shows how much a squad would cost to assemble in Euros.

 

6Qy0zO6.jpg

 

So with our squad coming in 12th place in terms of costs, would most people be happy finishing 12 or there abouts?

Edited by Chewie

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One of the papers did a study where they took each element of a club and ranked it against the other clubs 1 to 20.  They then compared each of these separate 'element' tables against the final league table to see which element most closely predicted the actual league table (they were trying to make a few bob at the bookies).

 

They found that far and away the best gauge of where a side would finish in the league was where they sat in the wage table.  So I'd go with that rather than transfer fees, because fees can be warped by a variety of non-relevant factors whereas, by and large, a player tends to end up getting paid what he's worth.

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Only if you think the top 6 are guaranteed.

Even if you don't think they are, and you swap one of them for say Swansea, then my list changes and you replace Swansea with either Spurs or Liverpool.  Same logic applies. I can't see us finishing above those either.

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One of the papers did a study where they took each element of a club and ranked it against the other clubs 1 to 20.  They then compared each of these separate 'element' tables against the final league table to see which element most closely predicted the actual league table (they were trying to make a few bob at the bookies).

 

They found that far and away the best gauge of where a side would finish in the league was where they sat in the wage table.  So I'd go with that rather than transfer fees, because fees can be warped by a variety of non-relevant factors whereas, by and large, a player tends to end up getting paid what he's worth.

Do you happen to have a link to the article? Sounds interesting.

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One of the papers did a study where they took each element of a club and ranked it against the other clubs 1 to 20.  They then compared each of these separate 'element' tables against the final league table to see which element most closely predicted the actual league table (they were trying to make a few bob at the bookies).

 

They found that far and away the best gauge of where a side would finish in the league was where they sat in the wage table.  So I'd go with that rather than transfer fees, because fees can be warped by a variety of non-relevant factors whereas, by and large, a player tends to end up getting paid what he's worth.

Do you happen to have a link to the article? Sounds interesting.

Our wage bill last season was the 11th highest I believe,  so just below mid table is where we belong

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One of the papers did a study where they took each element of a club and ranked it against the other clubs 1 to 20.  They then compared each of these separate 'element' tables against the final league table to see which element most closely predicted the actual league table (they were trying to make a few bob at the bookies).

 

They found that far and away the best gauge of where a side would finish in the league was where they sat in the wage table.  So I'd go with that rather than transfer fees, because fees can be warped by a variety of non-relevant factors whereas, by and large, a player tends to end up getting paid what he's worth.

Do you happen to have a link to the article? Sounds interesting.

I don't have a reference to an article, but there's a whole chapter of 'Soccernomics' which proves the same thing. 

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Going through this thread it looks like about 12th is the average consensus. I think that's about right. And I think it would represent a tremendous job by Tim and his team, and a great foundation to push on next season with a much more settled side.

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So Paul Merson who tipped Villa to be relegated less than a month ago, and has constantly commented on our inability to score goals in all of his pre-match predictions since then, has now tipped us to finish 12th this season.  Mentalist.

Edited by BOF

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So Paul Merson who tipped Villa to be relegated less than a month ago, and has constantly commented on our inability to score goals in all of his pre-match predictions since then, has now tipped us to finish 12th this season.  Mentalist.

He's been reading this thread!

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Merson looks like he's aiming to get in a fat-ex-footballers team with Neville Southall, Maradona and Ronaldo.

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Can't see any else asking so I will. Where we going to finish ?

I predict 7th. Hoorah !

Did you mean 7 points? Because we've got 8 already...

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14 minutes ago, rjw63 said:

Did you mean 7 points? Because we've got 8 already...

So 1 point ahead AND with a good kit and shirt deal?! Tom Fox will be so pleased!

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