Jareth Posted June 19, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted June 19, 2021 Labour leadership need to get behind tactical voting pronto - but they won't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted June 19, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted June 19, 2021 Starmer needs to go - he hasn't got time to play such a slow game - don't get me wrong, he may one day be the perfect opposition leader, but he just cannot be afforded that time when the likes of Ed **** Davey inflict more damage on the tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Jareth said: Starmer needs to go - he hasn't got time to play such a slow game - don't get me wrong, he may one day be the perfect opposition leader, but he just cannot be afforded that time when the likes of Ed **** Davey inflict more damage on the tories. Just remind yourself which paper commisioned the poll Then remind yourself once more that Andy Burnham isn't an MP (and must be to me leader of the party) The poll is asking questions on Starmer vs George effing Galloway and Starmer vs Andy Burnham. DO you think gioven the publication it was intended for and the types of questions it's asking that it might just have some inbuilt bias (what is the current level of don't knows for example? - not even stated) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, bickster said: Just remind yourself which paper commisioned the poll Then remind yourself once more that Andy Burnham isn't an MP (and must be to me leader of the party) The poll is asking questions on Starmer vs George effing Galloway and Starmer vs Andy Burnham. DO you think gioven the publication it was intended for and the types of questions it's asking that it might just have some inbuilt bias (what is the current level of don't knows for example? - not even stated) It was a 510 participant survation telephone poll. They're not going to make up the numbers. They did a similar one just before Hartlepool which was bang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 I think statistically you need 1012 replies to be within 5% accurate and just over 5000 to be within 3% Anything below 1000 is likely to be fairly inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, colhint said: I think statistically you need 1012 replies to be within 5% accurate and just over 5000 to be within 3% Anything below 1000 is likely to be fairly inaccurate. Have you got a source for that? I've seen a few articles on psephology saying the opposite - you only need a few hundred to be very accurate. Anyway, Starmer probably won't be leader in 2 weeks. This is horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted June 19, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted June 19, 2021 43 minutes ago, bickster said: Just remind yourself which paper commisioned the poll Then remind yourself once more that Andy Burnham isn't an MP (and must be to me leader of the party) The poll is asking questions on Starmer vs George effing Galloway and Starmer vs Andy Burnham. DO you think gioven the publication it was intended for and the types of questions it's asking that it might just have some inbuilt bias (what is the current level of don't knows for example? - not even stated) The direction of travel is clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jareth said: The direction of travel is clear There is no direction of travel in the Labour vote, they got 42.7% of the votes in 2019. That puts the poll within the margin of error. The Tory vote is an upswing due to the lack of the local Indy party standing (12.2% last time) and Brexit Party (3.2% last time) According to that poll didly squat has happened to the Labour vote 51 minutes ago, darrenm said: It was a 510 participant survation telephone poll. They're not going to make up the numbers. They did a similar one just before Hartlepool which was bang on. There are questions and questions asking the same thing but in different ways, the answers will vary wildly depending on the questions wording itself Did Survation do a poll for the by-election that everyone forgot this week? Genuinely curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bickster said: Did Survation do a poll for the by-election that everyone forgot this week? Genuinely curious Don't think so. There wasn't much interest in it because it was such a certain Tory hold. This was the survation poll for Hartlepool. Similar sample sizes and they were close but overestimated Labour's vote a bit. It'll be interesting to see if they're any closer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted June 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, darrenm said: Don't think so. There wasn't much interest in it because it was such a certain Tory hold. This was the survation poll for Hartlepool. Similar sample sizes and they were close but overestimated Labour's vote a bit. It'll be interesting to see if they're any closer this time. So are you saying that the questions and the way they were asked by Survation in those two polls were the same and their small sample size meant they were accurate. Do you really think Labour lost 14% of the electorate in the final weeks of the Hartlepool election? Like I was saying the client is very important and like Colhint said, sample sizes of about 500 aren't that accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 It's certainly possible that Survation's poll underestimates the Labour vote. But I think a bigger problem in recent times has been polls overstating Labour support, so at the current moment in time, if you gave me an over/under on Labour losing by 6, I would bet on a wider margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted June 19, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 19, 2021 I would love to ask the 32% of people that believe it's clear what Starmer stands for what exactly they think it is. Is it just that 32% of people answered "don't know" and pollsters misunderstood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 On the face of it Labour have picked a good candidate to stand in Batley and Spen so given that and the fact they have held the seat for nearly 40 years you'd think they would win this by election against an incumbent government. Even taking into account the vaccination success the Tories have presided over a shit show this last 18 months. If Labour don't win you have to point the finger firmly at Starmer. If he can't win seats like this now then I dread to think what the result could be in a general election and then we have another 4-5 years under the Tories. I am starting to seriously think the risk in retaining Starmer is starting to far out weigh the risk of replacing him. If he has made pretty much zero connection with the electorate in over a year, in fact he has gone backwards, then can people seriously see him turning that around and winning the next election. I think that is for the birds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 You will never be as good at politics as the 'senior Labour official' telling Dan Hodges that the reason Muslim voters might not vote Labour in Batley and Spen is 'cos they're a load of anti-semites, innit: (from performative idiot Dan Hodges' column in the Mail: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9704175/DAN-HODGES-Whos-spreading-poison-final-nail-Keir-Starmers-coffin.html) Very smart, IMO, can't see a flaw in this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 The **** is this: Just straight up insisting that no-one cares (in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, I might add, this has cut through more than anything since Cummings going to Barnard Castle) and that it's not an important issue. Don't think a Cabinet member could do a better job of heroically deflecting than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 "Pssst, no, he's not one of ours" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: The **** is this: Just straight up insisting that no-one cares (in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, I might add, this has cut through more than anything since Cummings going to Barnard Castle) and that it's not an important issue. Don't think a Cabinet member could do a better job of heroically deflecting than that. “They want to see him sacked but it’s not the thing that will change their lives for better or worse”. She should have said that first. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 45 minutes ago, blandy said: “They want to see him sacked but it’s not the thing that will change their lives for better or worse”. She should have said that first. I think. That would have been better, but better still would just have been to roll with it for a day or two before pissing on the bonfire. She's obviously not wrong that 'leaseholders' and 'jobs' and 'schools' and so on are objectively more important, but when people are tuning in for a particular reason, to hear about one specific story, it's just bizarre behaviour to spend most of your appearance insisting that actually people don't care. As I got in the car yesterday, it turned on to Radio 4, and it was one of those phone in shows, Any Questions or Any Answers I guess. Anyway, the presenter was busy complaining that nobody wanted to talk about anything else, and because nobody was calling in for any other topic they would just talk about Hancock for the whole show, and she was also asking - quite imploringly I thought - if there was a single listener out there who might want to call in to defend him, but nope, nobody did, at least in the time I was listening. I know that's just Radio 4, but there's people been posting in the baby eaters thread who don't normally care about politics, my wife getting voice messages in the last 24 hours from 'non-political' friends where they make reference to it, etc etc. People very definitely *do* care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: People very definitely *do* care. Yeah. And for different reasons. Some because of his hypocrisy, some because he cheated on his wife, some because he’s “**** hopeless”, some because it’s tabloid nooky… Hes an overwhelming numpty who should have been sacked multiple times. That’s what Labour should be hammering home. Incompetent, dishonest, dreadful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted June 27, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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