The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[HanoiVillan]

43 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Labour are actually up in this poll it's the collapse of Brexit Party's vote share that have won this for the Tories.

This is not a defence of Starmer but it's clear that this is due to the right vote being concentrated in one place.  

The problem with that thesis is that when the UKIP vote grew hugely in this constituency in 2015 (which vote is surely very closely correlated to the 2019 Brexit Party vote) it was drawn something like 60% from the Tories, 40% from Labour. Now that it seems to have collapsed, that poll has 80% of it going to the Tories and 20% of it going to Labour.

Of course it's true that if the third-place party completely collapses and disappears the other parties remaining will benefit, but the issue is that Labour (appear to) have lost voters relative to the Tories.

[chrisp65]

They Work For You

Bit of a mixed bag on equality votes for Timms.

Always a site worth checking out when looking at any individual MP, how they’ve actually voted on issues.

 

 

[chrisp65]

On that survation poll, it’s not even 502 respondents, they landline phoned 502, they had 443 respondents they could use for the how will you vote question, of the 443, there were 19 that refused to answer and 126 that were undecided.

So the poll headline is extrapolated from 298 useable answers.

85% of 15 women like shampoo.

 

 

 

[darrenm]

25 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

On that survation poll, it’s not even 502 respondents, they landline phoned 502, they had 443 respondents they could use for the how will you vote question, of the 443, there were 19 that refused to answer and 126 that were undecided.

So the poll headline is extrapolated from 298 useable answers.

85% of 15 women like shampoo.

 

 

 

Small numbers are surprisingly representative. I got caught out on this once when challenging a polling expert on Twitter. As long as they weight correctly even if there's no multilevel regression and poststratification they tend to be fairly good even at low numbers.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

They Work For You

Bit of a mixed bag on equality votes for Timms.

Always a site worth checking out when looking at any individual MP, how they’ve actually voted on issues.

I'm not really interested in his record, I'm interested in why he's out in public baiting the LGBT community the day after his party leader apologised for praising that church.

EDIT: Apologies for the testy tone of this response, came out more aggressive than I intended. But he's out on main being a dickhead for effect, and it's working on me.

Edited April 6, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm not really interested in his record, I'm interested in why he's out in public baiting the LGBT community the day after his party leader apologised for praising that church.

He's an evangelical christian.

[HanoiVillan]

Just now, bickster said:

He's an evangelical christian.

Does that mean he can't keep his bigotry to himself?

[chrisp65]

11 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm not really interested in his record, I'm interested in why he's out in public baiting the LGBT community the day after his party leader apologised for praising that church.

Oh ok, I guess his voting record on gay issues wouldn’t give you any insight in to that.

 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

Does that mean he can't keep his bigotry to himself?

I've just conducted my own straw poll and 80% of my respondent said yes

[Seat68]

Being devout christian is saying the bible “tells” me that laying with another man is wrong. Being a word removed says I can make you stop fancying the same sex. 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

there are also another type of poll, which is the 'do you have a favourable opinion of' poll, and this type of poll does not necessarily have a 1:1 reaction, as some voters will have a favourable opinion of both or neither, or may not have any opinion of one at all. Starmer has begun to perform worse on this second type of poll as well, but this type of poll should logically be much more weakly connected to the success or otherwise of the vaccination program (because there is no strong logical reason why a successful government program should make a voter feel less favourable to Starmer).

I take your point, but disagree with it to an extent because the questions are not asked in isolation. Kind of like “considering the following party leaders....what is your opinion of them. If that of Johnson is high because of vaccines a level of favour will be lost from other leaders because of the good news prevalent around Johnson in these strange circumstances we find ourselves. You’re right that it’s not as either/or as the “who do you prefer” type of poll, but I don’t think you can dismiss the link during the pandemic. In normal times you mostly can, I concur.

I don’t disagree that Starmer’s polling has fallen, just on the main reason behind it  I just think the fungus pandemic has totally dominated people’s lives and views for the entire time of it and this drives the poll outcomes, but who really knows?

 

[fruitvilla]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

He's an evangelical christian.

I always wonder how someone can get elected, when they have weighed the evidence and have come to the conclusion that an angel came to a lady called Miriam (or whatever it is in Aramaic), foretold of some kind of divine birth, and that the resulting child will be the son of god or some prophet, is a reasonable proposition to move forward. Sorry long sentence. And perhaps wrong thread.

[bickster]

1 minute ago, fruitvilla said:

when they have weighed the evidence

That bit doesn't and can't happen. It's all about the George Michael song

[chrisp65]

15 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

Being devout christian is saying the bible “tells” me that laying with another man is wrong. Being a word removed says I can make you stop fancying the same sex. 

I’m always suspicious of anyone that has strong views about what others do in private with their privates.

I’m always worried for them that they are perhaps in some form of personal denial and they are going to go through life denying themselves the experience they crave or obsess over. 

Richard Coles is probably describable as a devout christian, I don’t think that’s stopped him trying a bit of what he fancied.

I’m not name calling, accusing someone of being a closet gay is a bit 1980’s. But I do wonder if Mr Timms needs to loosen up a bit. As it were.

[Seat68]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

I’m always suspicious of anyone that has strong views about what others do in private with their privates.

I’m always worried for them that they are perhaps in some form of personal denial and they are going to go through life denying themselves the experience they crave or obsess over. 

Richard Coles is probably describable as a devout christian, I don’t think that’s stopped him trying a bit of what he fancied.

I’m not name calling, accusing someone of being a closet gay is a bit 1980’s. But I do wonder if Mr Timms needs to loosen up a bit. As it were.

He is. Its clear. Pass it on. 

[Jareth]

Nothing like Boris Johnson, other than making announcements behind a paywall

 

[bickster]

44 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Nothing like Boris Johnson, other than making announcements behind a paywall

I really don't understand why you don't get the need for Labour to do this. If we are ever to get a Labour Government again, the party needs to appeal to middle England, not just in terms of pure votes but also in terms of that section of the electorate not being scared of the bogeyman

It being behind a paywall (as much as I hate them) shouldn't bother you, the message isn't aimed at you

[ml1dch]

52 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Nothing like Boris Johnson, other than making announcements behind a paywall

 

It's an interview for The Times. Are you suggesting that he should refuse to speak to any journalist who works for The Times, Telegraph, FT et al?

[Seat68]

Just like Boris. 

 

[Jareth]

57 minutes ago, bickster said:

I really don't understand why you don't get the need for Labour to do this. If we are ever to get a Labour Government again, the party needs to appeal to middle England, not just in terms of pure votes but also in terms of that section of the electorate not being scared of the bogeyman

It being behind a paywall (as much as I hate them) shouldn't bother you, the message isn't aimed at you

He's also said that the tabloids are not racist. I'm aware of who he's aiming at - but I don't understand why anybody thinks this will work, Starmer is synonymous with the remain movement, and now he's courting voters firmly of the Leave ilk, they see through him and will not suddenly switch back to Labour simply because he's not Boris. And there it is again, Starmer telling us who he is not. Again, I don't get why anyone thinks this cunning plan will work.