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Russia-Ukraine War


maqroll

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Ukraine is basically already over and it will end up losing about a third of its territory and most of its heavy industry in the end. What remains (mostly peasants and muddy fields) will probably join NATO, but Vlad will have his buffer zone. The Europeans simply aren't prepared to die in a ditch over Ukraine, Russia will - and arguably is.

As for the photo above I don't think Russia will openly go for the Baltic States for the simple reason it would cause a direct confrontation with parts of the West. The US is prepared to fight to uphold Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (an attack on one is an attack on all). UK will also uphold its commitments if it really has to as will the Poles, but as for the rest of Europe, particularly Germany, I'm not so sure. Russia might test the boundaries with some unconventional action in the Baltics, but a sufficiently robust internal response will send the appropriate signals.

Europe took it for granted at the end of the Cold War that any conventional threat to the continent was inconceivable and cut their armed forces accordingly. In consequence it would now take years to bring most NATO members up to strength to participate in an actual war, as opposed to peace keeping. UK has been equally guilty of this wishful thinking as even a cursory glance at the RAF or Royal Navy will illustrate.

I don't think a general war with Russia is at all likely as things stand, but this should serve as a wake up call that the world isn't quite as pink and fluffy as many would wish it to be. Ultimately European countries must have both the will and the ability to fight for what they believe in, because in historical terms liberal democracy is still a blip, not the norm.

As a wise man once said, "speak softly and carry a big stick."

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Im still wondering why theres no information been released about what was on the blackbox of the plane that was shot down. Russia were blamed by the U.S in typical fashion with no evidence.

I dont understand why the U.S, UK and Nato (which is controlled by the US anyway) are desperatley trying to interfere in the current conflict

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Im still wondering why theres no information been released about what was on the blackbox of the plane that was shot down. Russia were blamed by the U.S in typical fashion with no evidence.

I dont understand why the U.S, UK and Nato (which is controlled by the US anyway) are desperatley trying to interfere in the current conflict

I think you're mixing up Germany and the US

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Im still wondering why theres no information been released about what was on the blackbox of the plane that was shot down. Russia were blamed by the U.S in typical fashion with no evidence.

I dont understand why the U.S, UK and Nato (which is controlled by the US anyway) are desperatley trying to interfere in the current conflict

I think you're mixing up Germany and the US
I seem to recall the U.S immediatley blaming Russia for shooting down the plane more or less straight away with no proof.

You mean Germany run NATO?

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It's interesting that people see this as Russia invading Ukraine as opposed to Russia resisting NATO expansion into Ukraine. We've continued to do exactly what we told Gorbachev we wouldn't do when he gave us East Germany, which is push NATO further and further east. It's a dangerous game of brinkmanship I think to push Russia to the edge of a war.

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It's interesting that people see this as Russia invading Ukraine as opposed to Russia resisting NATO expansion into Ukraine. We've continued to do exactly what we told Gorbachev we wouldn't do when he gave us East Germany, which is push NATO further and further east. It's a dangerous game of brinkmanship I think to push Russia to the edge of a war.

 

Interesting. Has Nato annexed a part of a sovereign country?

 

Russia currently don't have the financial power to engage in an out and out war. 

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Russia have $400 billion of reserves so the country itself isn't worrying , they also built a new oil pipe in partnership with Turkey ( in your face Europe ) and have huge deals in place with China so the Saudi / US driven oil price drop isn't hurting Putin as much as was intended ..

The private sector in Russia however is dangerously close to collapse with debts out of control and ever increasing due to the economic sanctions in place.....

Could this see Russia moving back to state control in the long run ?

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Russia have $400 billion of reserves so the country itself isn't worrying , they also built a new oil pipe in partnership with Turkey ( in your face Europe ) and have huge deals in place with China so the Saudi / US driven oil price drop isn't hurting Putin as much as was intended ..

 

 

A huge part of the $400 billion is gone already trying to keep their bank system afloat ( 17% interest on deposits in roubles lol ) and other losses due to the sanctions. The gas pipe to Turkey hasn't been built. It hasn't even started and it very likely never will because it'd cost way more than the gas it'd potentially transit. The deal with China is also on hold due to the enormous cost ( the terrain ) and falling energy prices. 

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I don't understand why Russia are pissing about with this. We (westerners) all seem to have a collective "lets not upset the Russians, it'll lead to world war 3"... but we see this half arsed battle with Ukraine over where they'd like the borders to be moved to.

 

They could get this job done in days/weeks if they put their minds to it, so why aren't they?

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Why would you want a 'patriotic war' that you appear to be winning and is severely testing the wit, resilience and resources of the opposition to be over quickly?

Putin is remarkably popular at home, any western sanctions that do affect people will only reinforce the us against them mentality of the region.

Any Russians that begin to grumble about their lot can simply be shown TV footage of the Oklahoma National Guard marching between Estonia and Latvia.

 

 

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I'm not supporting the Russian policy, far from it. But you can see how they might not see things the same way we do.

How might the U.S. react if the Russians had a military interest and boots on the ground in, say, Cuba and Mexico?

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Having spent $5billion dollars arranging for the coup that put the current Neo-Nazi's in place - the US will be very frustrated by Putin's reluctance to put up enough of a fight to allow them to take control of the Crimean ports. The current stand off suits the Russians more than the US.

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I remember there was this popular danish politican who wanted the danish army to be replaced with an answering machine who says "we give up" in russian.

The Russians would probably understand the old German one they used in 1940.
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I remember there was this popular danish politican who wanted the danish army to be replaced with an answering machine who says "we give up" in russian.

The Russians would probably understand the old German one they used in 1940.

 

Scandinavian leaders has always been spinless cowards especially the swedish ones..

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I remember there was this popular danish politican who wanted the danish army to be replaced with an answering machine who says "we give up" in russian.

The Russians would probably understand the old German one they used in 1940.

 

Scandinavian leaders has always been spinless cowards especially the swedish ones..

 

But they prevented Copenhagen, Oslo and Stockholm from looking like Warsaw. They really didn't have much of a choice against Hitler. 

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