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Villa finances: worst case scenarios


Marka Ragnos

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So in the latest accounts we made a loss again.  Down from £50 odd million to nearly £4m.

 

Surprising because in the BoA sale prospectus we were down to make £17m EBIDTA

Are you saying that we didn't do as well as the prospectus said we would?

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Paying off Lambert's contract
Hiring Sherwood

Further amortisation of crap like N'Zog/Bent

Amortisation of Vlaar

Delph's new deal

Fees paid in January
 

None of the above are cheap.

 

never mind the fact that we have more than likely VASTLY  underachieved the expected commercial income this season due to pitiful performances. TV will be down, gates down, marketing down, corporate down.

Edited by Djemba_Villan
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Quite a way off from what the prospectus estimated.

 

 

 

... None of the above are cheap.

 

never mind the fact that we have more than likely VASTLY  underachieved the expected commercial income this season due to pitiful performances. TV will be down, gates down, marketing down, corporate down. ...

 

So ... are we on a downward death-spiral? Have the wings come off?

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Quite a way off from what the prospectus estimated.

 

 

... None of the above are cheap.

 

never mind the fact that we have more than likely VASTLY  underachieved the expected commercial income this season due to pitiful performances. TV will be down, gates down, marketing down, corporate down. ...

 

So ... are we on a downward death-spiral? Have the wings come off?

I'd say they came off a while ago tbh!

What we are witnessing is the result of sustained austerity and a lot of awful decisions at board level.

If we do go down, it could be a disaster that lasts for some time.

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So we made a £4 million loss 2013/2014? That's nothing compared to what we were losing and not far off a profit. Not many football teams run at a profit. 2014/2015 we'll be in profit (accounts for this season). 

 

Anyone got a link to the financial report? 

Edited by supernova26
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People have been telling Lerner that for years and he hasn't listened.  Maybe the losses we post in the Championship when we don't get £60m+ in television money will take him by surprise or something. 

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Lerner has been so all or nothing. The first 4 years was like hey lets spend 8 million on Curtis Davies, and spend 3 million doing up a pub. After that it was buy random lower league or foreign buys for little money and hope we can stay up. No strategy at all once Man City overtook us to  break the previous hegemony of the big four.

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Hang on we are £4m loss on last year?

 

so when Bent goes by himself we are in the black, no?

 

plus a couple of others too. 

 

 

My word this season is a key one not to get relegated. 

 

Come the start of next season we are essentially in the black, without any sponsorship improvements.....

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Thought we would be making a very small profit by now after years of cut backs, but 2 more wins last season we would have finished 4 places higher, giving us an extra £2million, and failure to shift those 3 high earners are still a big drain on finances

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So fag packet maths here but looking at the crystal ball this summer:

 

Year end 2015 accounts - (guessing) we make a profit of £30 mill thanks to TV money for the season minus bugger all player purchases

We get relegated but our balance sheet shows assets of £30 mill

We begin next season in Championship, we retain our squad minus some seriously high earners whose contracts have ended

We have that £30 mill to improve the squad

 

Im not pro Lerner - but is this last season's extended austerity what you would call financial 'insurance' for possible relegation?

Edited by Jareth
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So fag packet maths here but looking at the crystal ball this summer:

Year end 2015 accounts - (guessing) we make a profit of £30 mill thanks to TV money for the season minus bugger all player purchases

We get relegated but our balance sheet shows assets of £30 mill

We begin next season in Championship, we retain our squad minus some seriously high earners whose contracts have ended

We have that £30 mill to improve the squad

Im not pro Lerner - but is this last season's extended austerity what you would call financial 'insurance' for possible relegation?

Feck it - forgive the convo with meself - just twigged that the year after we'd need to find £50 mill odd to balance the drop in TV money - so best players deffo off at that point and years of obscurity in the championship. Balls.

Parachute payments.

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Upshot - I see the future and we will have 3 seasons in the championship to get back to the prem - with a budget each season of £15-20 mill. Sums below if you want to be bored. 

 

Looking at the most recent accounts compared to the year before, we're not making a loss anymore, and if we kept spending at the same levels going forwards and stayed in the prem we'd be making a profit from any TV money. So estimated £30 mill assets for next season, then season after we spend what we earn going forwards. If in the championship still then the parachute payment is actually estimated to be about £36 mill for 2016/17. All in all, that is plenty of money to see us back to the prem. Just need the right set up to spend said money.

Edited by Jareth
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So in the latest accounts we made a loss again.  Down from £50 odd million to nearly £4m.

 

Surprising because in the BoA sale prospectus we were down to make £17m EBIDTA

The £4m is loss after tax as far as I can tell.

 

EBITDA is "Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation"

 

You're comparing apples and pears.

Edited by Stevo985
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