Marka Ragnos Posted February 23, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) If we go down -- and still don't think we will -- what are the long and short-term financial implications? How bad can it get, financially? Is there a scenario that sees us implode as a club and melt down into administration, for instance? This is an area of club management that I find so opaque but also quite interesting. Are we in a state where we can financially "absorb" relegation and dust ourselves off? Are we were facing the double-blow of relegation and an already bleak financial picture? I would be interested in any light you all may shine on this complicated sub-topic that I am masterfully unqualified to speak to. Edited February 23, 2015 by Shifted To Neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The issue would that in future seasons the club finishing bottom of the PL - is going to get £100m - miss out on that for a few seasons, and whilst you may eventually get back to the PL - you are really up against it to get established ...... I beleive we would also see a re run of the post MON years - with severe cost cutting in place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 All the players will have to take a paycut I believe, so we'll go from paying Championship wages in the Prem to paying League One wages in the Championship I'm sure we would get by for one season but the gap will widen each year beyond that. Randy may have to sell us cheaper so that may be a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 23, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2015 The issue would that in future seasons the club finishing bottom of the PL - is going to get £100m - miss out on that for a few seasons, and whilst you may eventually get back to the PL - you are really up against it to get established ...... I beleive we would also see a re run of the post MON years - with severe cost cutting in place.... Can I ask you what that "severe cost cutting" meant in the past? Are we talking "just" player salaries or are there staffs involved in this? I am especially interested in the kind of knock-on effects for Villa's particular situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dounavilla Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We have been run like a championship club for a few seasons now so nothing will change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodders0223 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am sure we will be fine. Randy, if nothing, has shown himself to a be a truly astute businessman. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We'll see in a few days what the financial position for 31 May 2014. Tha will give us a clue as to how stable we are. Obviously there will be parachute payments if we go down, but conversely the team going up would soon have an income higher than ours. Bournemouth, at a stroke, would have a higher income than us. If we went straight back up we'd probably be OK, but after that the gap between the Premier League and the Championship would soon start to tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 23, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am sure we will be fine. Randy, if nothing, has shown himself to a be a truly astute businessman. But he's about to see one of his prize assets lose millions of £££££££ of value, right, because of his own inert, stolid, listless oversight? What's astute about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post romavillan Posted February 23, 2015 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am sure we will be fine. Randy, if nothing, has shown himself to a be a truly astute businessman. But he's about to see one of his prize assets lose millions of £££££££ of value, right, because of his own inert, stolid, listless oversight? What's astute about that? I think your sarcasm meter needs some new batteries. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The issue would that in future seasons the club finishing bottom of the PL - is going to get £100m - miss out on that for a few seasons, and whilst you may eventually get back to the PL - you are really up against it to get established ...... I beleive we would also see a re run of the post MON years - with severe cost cutting in place.... We'll be ok provided we come straight back up as the new deal doesn't start until the 16/17 season. Obviously coming straight back up will be a challenge in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 23, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am sure we will be fine. Randy, if nothing, has shown himself to a be a truly astute businessman. But he's about to see one of his prize assets lose millions of £££££££ of value, right, because of his own inert, stolid, listless oversight? What's astute about that? I think your sarcasm meter needs some new batteries. Where do I get these batteries from? And how much do they cost? And if I might ask one rather serious question, can I pay for them in camel penis skin? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we'd be ok, we've cut out outgoings big time and some of the bigger earners will move on as well. We'd just have to cut our cloth accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 23, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 23, 2015 Villa has the worst percentage of average attendances versus capacity in the Premier League. That can't have helped. But will our numbers get even worse if we go down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Curtis Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) I imagine we would have a very good away following for one year. That counts for nothing though, as far as our finances are concerned. Current ST sales of 17000, which are down by 4,500 from 2013-14, would drop to about 14000, unless very good incentives are put in place. Edited February 23, 2015 by George Curtis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supernova26 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 (edited) I posted in another thread but in extremely basic terms we currently get £60 million + TV money in the Championship we'll get £15 million parachute. Our wage bill is approximately £50 million + so you can see the massive loss that would happen there. The Championship has FFP laws too so it's pretty certain we'd have to shed at least 4 of our top players (Benteke, Delph, Gill, Guzan). We won't go under financially FFP is in place to stop that kind of thing happening, Forest fell foul of FFP this season and got a transfer ban. Plus Randy is a reputable business man not some dodgy crook from the far east. There's zero chance we'll go under financially but don't expect us to be keeping our best players because that won't be happening. A complete restructuring plan maybe not that bad (see Southampton, Swansea) but you'd want a more savvy owner than Learner at the helm to do it. If we do go down I doubt Randy will choose to sell at such a loss but potential new owners will be circling with the new Premiership deal (£100m TV money minimum) looking to buy on the cheap. Edited February 23, 2015 by supernova26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Villa has the worst percentage of average attendances versus capacity in the Premier League. That can't have helped. But will our numbers get even worse if we go down? Almost certainly, apart from the 42,000 sell out when we have to play that lot. If we are averaging 32,000 at the moment in the Prem it would be around 25,000 in the Championship. If we actually started to win some matches and challenge for promotion, people could come back. Could is the big word- thousands might not bother ever again, and realize having weekends doing other stuff is less painful..Look at Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday- they have 1000s of empty seats every home game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marka Ragnos Posted February 24, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 24, 2015 Villa has the worst percentage of average attendances versus capacity in the Premier League. That can't have helped. But will our numbers get even worse if we go down? Almost certainly, apart from the 42,000 sell out when we have to play that lot. If we are averaging 32,000 at the moment in the Prem it would be around 25,000 in the Championship. If we actually started to win some matches and challenge for promotion, people could come back. Could is the big word- thousands might not bother ever again, and realize having weekends doing other stuff is less painful..Look at Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday- they have 1000s of empty seats every home game. The Wednesday's dip in the late 60s and the club's incredible history -- way too many parallels with us. Hope we don't follow them down the same road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 (edited) Villa has the worst percentage of average attendances versus capacity in the Premier League. That can't have helped. But will our numbers get even worse if we go down? We won't sell as many season tickets but if we are at the top end of the table there will be a lot more interest than there is now, so I would expect our gates to rise. Edited February 24, 2015 by PaulC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcTheObsession Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 No way would our gates rise. We pull in 40k+ crowds a few times a season for games against the likes of Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. These attendances help pull the average up. The only game there would be any chance of a 40k+ crowd for would be against SHA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 So in the latest accounts we made a loss again. Down from £50 odd million to nearly £4m. Surprising because in the BoA sale prospectus we were down to make £17m EBIDTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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