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Relegation v4.0


BleedClaretAndBlue

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Can someone explain to me why we are still odds-against to be relegated?

It's the big club syndrome and where the pro's make their money. Some of the odds Liverpool traded at in recent years have been laughable, made plenty of money from them earlier in the season. A lot of punters still find it hard to comprehend we'd go down due to size of club, players etc ignoring the key indicators.

 

I work in decimals and we should be at 1.65 (ish) for the drop. (nearly 1/2 on)

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Can someone explain to me why we are still odds-against to be relegated?

It's the big club syndrome and where the pro's make their money. Some of the odds Liverpool traded at in recent years have been laughable, made plenty of money from them earlier in the season. A lot of punters still find it hard to comprehend we'd go down due to size of club, players etc ignoring the key indicators.

 

I work in decimals and we should be at 1.65 (ish) for the drop. (nearly 1/2 on)

Odds about right imo at 2.54 on Betfair, maybe a little generous.

QPR, Burnley and Leicester all shorter, which is how it is in my mind also.

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I think too many are overestimating our rivals and the general standard of the division.

Last season 34 points would've been enough to finish in 17th place and I see no reason to believe that significantly more will be required this - maybe 35 points maximum. That would therefore require 3/4 wins and some draws to do it. We have the most favourable run-in of any side also.

Out of the remaining fixtures, only the Man City, Man United, Tottenham and Southampton games are the ones we shouldn't expect anything from.

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I keep reading Burnley are one of the three certs to be relegated,yet a team who can go to Man City and Chelsea and come away with a draw should not be written off

 

It's all about 38 games, not what happens any given Saturday. We beat Liverpool away and drew United at home, doesn't really mean much in the big scheme of things. Burnley getting points at Chelsea and Man City is not about Burnley, it's about Chelsea and City not playing at the level they can.

 

A 80% Chelsea will still beat a 100% Burnley-side, but sometimes they are off. Yesterday Burnley were lucky, they should have had red cards and penalties against them. Then Matic reacts and gives Burnely the upper hand, even though Barnes should have been sent to the stands.

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We've had plenty of so called 'favourable' games this season, Hull & Stoke (without their best player) being the latest. We've done sod all in those games, and I expect us to continue doing sod all.

This is true but only one of those under the current manager. If nothing else, one of the major differences I'd expect with this managerial change is that Sherwood will not persist with the same selections and set-up when it clearly isn't working. His post-match comments were not riddled with the levels of delusion that we've became accustomed to with his predecessor.

"I was encouraged with some performances - Scott Sinclair, I thought, was very good, the two centre-halves were good, Kieran Richardson was very lively and Alan Hutton was a threat on the right hand side."

Other than Vlaar, we'd pretty much agree with this. And I can understand where he is coming from saying the centre-backs were "good" in that it was two lapses from Vlaar rather than him being all over the place throughout the match. For me those lapses were so bad that they render his overall performance to be categorised as poor but I still get what he means.

In some ways, it's for the best that it happened during his first game in charge. He'll have [hopefully] learnt a lot and there will be a major reshuffling for the next match. This is why I am still fairly optimistic of our survival. Not so much that we will go on a great run, but that we can conceivably do enough to better our rivals (namely Burnley and QPR) until the season's end.

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Yesterday was a big disappointment, as I thought/hoped/felt we would win.

 

But I still think we just need one win in the league to get us going, and there is no reason that won't come against Newcastle, who are also very very poor at the moment.

 

I think he needs to play 3 in midfield, Benteke up front and Gil and Sinclair wide, and get the runners into the box from deep as we did against Leicester in the cup. Unfortunately w only 

 

Based on how we, QPR and Burnley are doing, I think we only need 12 points to be safe - if we can't do that, then we deserve to go down.

Even if Leicester beat Everton, I think think they will fade away.

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Ffs Leicester. 

 

Actually my initial reaction until I saw where Everton are - they're not quite out of this battle either and still have the distraction of Europe. They're on 27 points, five less than Newcastle.

 

Leicester remain bottom regardless and if we can't finish above Leicester we're going down whatever other permutations there are!

Edited by jackbauer24
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