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$200 Million Takeover


supernova26

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Also, club secretary is in USA 'on work commitments', but who knows!

How do you know this if you don't mind me asking, was it reported somewhere?

Can't reveal source but picture of said person outside a Dallas landmark, saying they were there in a work capacity.

Thanks. Probably to do with the US tour then when we face FC Dallas one would assume.

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I think my post has been taken a bit out of context. I am not ITK, I posted about a conversation I had in a pub with a complete stranger. This can hardly be classed as reliable. The purpose of my post was to point out where and how people like Russ Lynch hear these rumours & then go posting stuff on Twitter.

 

Apologies if anyone read more into my post than was intended.

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"Some accountant bloke told me on Saturday night that all accounts, contracts, wage lists etc had gone over to Merril Lynch." This quote made me hope something is going on again. I thought a takeover was off now for a while but maybe it just takes to much time for my patience.

I'm assuming jim typed £143m as that may be the amount the potential buyer has placed on the table following the alleged drop in price to £150m?

OK, so the fact that everything has gone over to Merrill Lynch, suggest due diligence might be being carried out. I've sold two businesses before, and when we agreed a fee for the business, a data room (basically an online portal of information) was setup for the buyer to view all documentation about the company, accounts, all contracts etc. Prior to this, they only got a copy of the headline numbers. Now I am not saying I am an ITK, but having experience of selling a couple of companies, this is the usual process. Merrill lynch would not go to the hassle of getting everything sent across unless there was a buyer - you just wouldn't waste your time.

Also, club secretary is in USA 'on work commitments', but who knows!

Have to respectfully disagree. Likewise I have been involved in the sale of several businesses from UK to US and IMO it is not uncommon for an organisation such as Merrill Lynch to demand all the data; lock, stock and barrel. If anything for such a purchase they would expect to have all the numbers at hand so that they are in a position to answer queries from interest parties. There may well be serious interest, but it doesn't mean that a due diligence process is in progress. Like Harry my little bit of ITK is that the AVFC financial guys are doing a lot of running around but that there is no bid as yet.

However, if there are interested parties and a bid is made, as RL is the 100% shareholder there is no reason why a deal cannot be done quickly, so as it is still only early June it is far too early to start panicking. Relatively speaking an organisation such as AVFC is nowhere near as complicated as many other businesses. When Lerner put in his bid to Ellis, Petchey and the other shareholders it was a much more complex situation and iirc Lerner didn't start negotiating till late June 2006

Lerner is basically a crap businessman who has bitten off more than he can chew, is embarrassed by his poor investment and will cut his losses rather than hang on for another season.

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I think buying a football club represents a vanity project for most club owners maqroll. If you have enough money to spare that the likely drain on your finances will have no significant impact on you along with the interest in football then owning a football club has a lot going for it. But in our owner's case his pot of money has been reduced due to circumstances outside of football and his interest in us has fallen to the extent he does not attend games at Villa Park so just wants his money back or as much of it as he can get back. I hope he gets his money quickly and sells to someone with the money and desire to provide as well as to sustain that once promised bright future for his own new vanity project.   

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I think my post has been taken a bit out of context. I am not ITK, I posted about a conversation I had in a pub with a complete stranger. This can hardly be classed as reliable. The purpose of my post was to point out where and how people like Russ Lynch hear these rumours & then go posting stuff on Twitter.

 

Apologies if anyone read more into my post than was intended.

Ooopps buterfingers

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"Some accountant bloke told me on Saturday night that all accounts, contracts, wage lists etc had gone over to Merril Lynch." This quote made me hope something is going on again. I thought a takeover was off now for a while but maybe it just takes to much time for my patience.

I'm assuming jim typed £143m as that may be the amount the potential buyer has placed on the table following the alleged drop in price to £150m?

OK, so the fact that everything has gone over to Merrill Lynch, suggest due diligence might be being carried out. I've sold two businesses before, and when we agreed a fee for the business, a data room (basically an online portal of information) was setup for the buyer to view all documentation about the company, accounts, all contracts etc. Prior to this, they only got a copy of the headline numbers. Now I am not saying I am an ITK, but having experience of selling a couple of companies, this is the usual process. Merrill lynch would not go to the hassle of getting everything sent across unless there was a buyer - you just wouldn't waste your time.

Also, club secretary is in USA 'on work commitments', but who knows!

Except they could just be setting up the data room in advance. In my experience its a real pain as information has to be collated and organised and certain stuff may have to be redacted so it could just be planning ahead for when they have a firm buyer which makes perfect sense. Generally speaking you don't get into the data room until your offer has been accepted so it could suggest there may be some interest out there.

Having said that I do have a tiny piece of ITK to offer. I ran into a business contact yesterday who I know is close to the club (can't say how as I don't want to offer clues to his identity but he would know what is going on). He is far to professional to break business confidences but I asked him the direct question about whether we had a buyer in the offing. His face told me all I needed to know so on that basis I am not holding my breath on this one.

You might be right, but setting up a data room without a buyer would burn consultancy fees and be very expensive to do without a buyer.

At the end of the day, no one really knows and we won't know for sometime.

 

Very true, it all depends I guess on how confident they are of finding a buyer quickly.

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...Likewise I have been involved in the sale of several businesses from UK to US and IMO it is not uncommon for an organisation such as Merrill Lynch to demand all the data; lock, stock and barrel. If anything for such a purchase they would expect to have all the numbers at hand so that they are in a position to answer queries from interest parties. There may well be serious interest, but it doesn't mean that a due diligence process is in progress. Like Harry my little bit of ITK is that the AVFC financial guys are doing a lot of running around but that there is no bid as yet.

However, if there are interested parties and a bid is made, as RL is the 100% shareholder there is no reason why a deal cannot be done quickly, so as it is still only early June it is far too early to start panicking. Relatively speaking an organisation such as AVFC is nowhere near as complicated as many other businesses. When Lerner put in his bid to Ellis, Petchey and the other shareholders it was a much more complex situation and iirc Lerner didn't start negotiating till late June 2006

Lerner is basically a crap businessman who has bitten off more than he can chew, is embarrassed by his poor investment and will cut his losses rather than hang on for another season.

 

Good post Mike, 100% agree with that particularly your last sentence.

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In terms of football most of them are in over their heads. The clever ones realise that and recruit top notch staff.

 

If you listen to Richard Branson he says "I'm no business man)....they get talented folk in key positions to do it for them.

 

In every aspect of the club our recruitment policy is subdued/low level. Everyone is grateful for the job, instead of us being grateful for them.

 

Thats where he has lost most of his money....most of the staff are in over their heads as well as him.

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Yeah, the whole thing was a vanity project for Lerner. He was in over his head from Day One.

He was in over his head the day an oil sheikh rocked up at man city...

 

 

This is why I don't really give a shit about Lerner - he came in and spent some money (he knew it needed doing, everybody knew it|) Then he realsed that he couldn't compete (Top four) So he decides thats enough.

He gives us bullshit about following fair play rules and running the club prudently but in reality he's more or less killing the club for three or four years to make sure he can get as much money back as possible.

 

Obviously thats his right, but being a good chairman - if he felt anything for the club he would run it normally until it is sold.

 

feck him and feck the bullshit they gave us when they arrived.

 

Just get out of our club, we were better off with Doug.

Edited by Morkery
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when Lerner came in I was probably the happiest I had ever been as a Villa fan (league cup wins aside). The league wasn't as saturated by oil billionaires as it is now, we had a chance to compete and get into the Champion's League.

Lerner did everything he could to make that happen, but our approach was riddled with poor decisions, short term thinking and could never be sustained. It felt like no-one at the club had thought 'what if we don't manage to buy any form of success, what if we fail at the final hurdle.' All the while we strived to compete the league changed, transfers went through the roof and player wages spiralled out of control.

Now you need hundreds of billions to compete and I doubt any prospective buyer will be in that class, so whatever happens it will be another 'five year plan' with no quick solutions and plenty of frustration and uncertainty ahead. Plus if Lambert stays I'm just not convinced our standard of football will change, will he honestly start to play any of the youth at his disposal or any of the returning bomb squad? Part of me thinks we would stand a better chance if we had a new manager who could try different things with what we have.

all conjecture though, i've no idea what will really happen.
 

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Yeah, the whole thing was a vanity project for Lerner. He was in over his head from Day One.

 

Disagree - Lerner doesn't seem to be a vain individual whatsoever (evidenced by the fact that he doesn't like the limelight at all) and I think he bought the club because he was genuinely interested in it at the time.

 

But going from genuine interest to not showing up to watch a match in person for months on end suggest that maybe the thing WAS a vanity pursuit. Once things got tough, he couldn't be bothered. 

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