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AvfcRigo82

The Cheltenham Festival 2014 Thread

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With Cheltenham just around the corner I thought it might be an idea to create this thread for build up for the festival.

 

Sad news that Sprinter Sacre will now not be running due to his injury/illness and nor will Cue Card...

 

Ireland again will definitely be bringing a lot of suprises over.

 

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Lost every race i bet on last year

 

think ill skip it this time round

 

I had Boston Bob in one of the races who was looking like he was going to win the race going into the last fence but then decided to do a somersalt

 

Is he racing again this time round or has he been put down?

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This is my annual '**** off festival you traffic arsehole' tweet then. A load of people from my work going. Quieten it down a bit which is good

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Sad news that Sprinter Sacre will now not be running due to his injury/illness and nor will Cue Card...

Ladbrokes had one of the 'lock in' price boosts today on Sire de Grugy - went 3/1 about it for 15 minutes (currently 5/4 fav).

Remember CVB's tips site - here's the link to his Cheltenham thoughts.

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Absolutely love the Fez. Going Thursday and Friday this year. Can't wait

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I'm going to the first 3 days same as last year. Gold Cup day is too busy and you have to skip a race just to get a pint. 

 

I love going in early on the Thursday, get a hog roast roll, I give Best Mate a pat on the nose, and sit on the bench beside him to go through the 3 handicaps that day. 

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I will take the train down for 1 day, possibly tues or weds undecided yet. Lost on every race last year and the highlight of the day was seeing a very pissed up Alan Brazil and his wife and daughter. God knows what they make of him. Anyway hopefully will have more luck this time and the hog roast rolls and a few guiness are lush.

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A lot of very decent class horses running this year and many terrific youngsters are going to break through.

 

Interesting to note aswell that Brian "Sleepy" Cooper is now top stable jockey for Gigginstown and no longer Davy Russell..

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I will take the train down for 1 day, possibly tues or weds undecided yet. Lost on every race last year and the highlight of the day was seeing a very pissed up Alan Brazil and his wife and daughter. God knows what they make of him. Anyway hopefully will have more luck this time and the hog roast rolls and a few guiness are lush.

 

I'll never have a year like last year.

 

***Aftertiming alert***

 

Had Champange Fever, Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Back in Focus, Sprinter Sacre, Benefficient, Cue Card, Solwhit, Our Conor, Ted Veale, Bobs Worth, Salsify & Alderwood

 

Champ Fever, Benefficient & Solwhit I'd got at 90.0, 46.0 & 50.0 antepost on betfair in Jan/Feb. 

 

I had what can only be described as a vast sum on Hurricane Fly. 

 

The sad part about it all is that it is impossible to have a festival that good ever again. 14 winners from 27 races!!!

 

 

I'll post an email I send to my mates and brothers in here shortly. Basically what bets to place right now for the festival. I bet a lot antepost so it's not really any use to my mates on the run up to it. 

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Also remember seeing at the festival what looked like a tramp meandering about between the guiness village and the various bookies, reached into his dirty looking overall and pulled out a fist full of €100 notes about 4 inches thick ! Unreal

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Check out http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival to find the bookies with the odds, also many of them have non runner no bet concession and be sure to bet with them if possible. More bookies will go non runner no bet over the next few days.
 
Tuesday
 
Supreme Novices Hurdle –  (Paddy Power offer refund losing bet if horse ends 2nd, 3rd or 4th) - 2pts Vautour @ 3/1, 1pt Josses Hill @ 12/1 
 
Arkle Novice Chase – 2pts Champagne Fever @ 7/2
 
Festival Handicap Chase – Cause of Causes @ 14/1 , Hadrians Approach @ 12/1
 
Champion Hurdle - 5pts Hurricane Fly @ 3/1 
 
OLBG Mares Hurdle  - No bet (or put  Quevega in double with Big Bucks)
 
Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase – 2pts Pendra @ 12/1, 1pt Attaglance @ 20/1
 
National Hunt Chase – 1pt Shutthefrontdoor @ 12/1,  1pt Just A Par @ 16/1 - (be sure to back both with non runner no bet concession) 
 
 
 
Wednesday
 
Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle – 3pts Faugheen @ 3/1
 
RSA Novice Chase – 1pt Morning Assembly @ 8/1 
 
Coral Cup – 1pt Far West @ 25/1, 1pt Alaivan @ 16/1
 
Queen Mother Champion chase – 2pts Captain Conan 7/1, 0.5pts e/w Special Tiara e/w 25/1
 
Cross Country Handicap Chase – 1pt Sire Collonges @ 8/1
 
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle – 1pt Goodwood Mirage @ 16/1 
 
Champion Bumper – 1pt Black Hercules @ 6/1
 
 
Thursday
 
JLT Novices Handicap Chase – 3pts Felix Yonger @ 6/1
 
Pertemps Final – 1pt Seefood @ 16/1
 
Ryanair Chase – no bet yet
 
World Hurdle – No Bet (or put Big Bucks in double with Quevega)
 
Byrne Group Plate - 1pt Uxizandre @ 20/1 (back with Betfair sportsbook they're nrnb)
 
Kim Muir Chase – no bet yet
 
 
Friday
 
Triumph Hurdle – 1pt Royal Irish Hussar @ 20/1
 
County Hurdle – 1pt Lac Fontana @ 12/1
 
Albert Bartlett – 3pts Briar Hill @ 9/2 
 
Gold Cup – 2pts Last Instalment @ 7/1
 
Foxhunters – tbc
 
Martin Pipe – 1pt Caid Du Berlais @ 33/1
 
Grand Annual – 1pt Astracad @ 25/1 
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Very interesting selections there CV and I do have to agree I fancy a lot of these already

 

Would you not fancy Annie Power over Big Bucks if it were to run in World Hurdle?

 

I also fancy Un De Sceaux e/w in the Champion Hurdle if that is the race he will definitely run in. (can still get 16/1 with L'Brokes)

 

 

Clerk of the course for Cheltenham Simon Claisse has reported that they are now expecting only 3-4mm of rain by next Tuesday instead of the 9-12mm that was first predicted, add this to the calm weather we are having on the build it to dry the ground a bit should see perfect racing ground come the festival.

 

New course is Gd to soft, Old course is currently Gd-Sft (Soft in places) and the X-Country course is currently soft (Heavy in places).

 

 

As Barney Curley said in the post Chelenham Fest preview "Expect this winters form in a bog to be stood on it's head when racing resumes on decent going come Cheltenham".

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There's no:

 

Sprinter Sacre

Long Run

Simonsig

Cue Card

Sir De Champs

Flemenstar

Salsify

Solwhit

Sanctuaire

 

 

That being said Hurricane Fly and Silviniaco Conti double is the one. Throw in Al Ferof for a treble.

Edited by birdistheword
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As Barney Curley said in the post Chelenham Fest preview "Expect this winters form in a bog to be stood on it's head when racing resumes on decent going come Cheltenham".

 

 

I put a key decision on my betting on the fact ground is good at Cheltenham and ground is usually soft/heavy from Dec-Feb

 

I keep note of trainer comments re horses preferred ground, plus the obvious breeding. Presenting, Kings Theatre, Bob Back etc.. horses prefer good. Dom Alco, Flemsfirth etc prefer soft.

 

Another good angle is French horses always run on watered heavy ground and some of them need good ground which they never get. I like to keep an eye on ones who come over run in soft ground during our winter and finally for the first time get thier ground in Spring. There are some massive improvers there.

 

My main way to profits is with Irish Horses and recently the focus is around Mullins.

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CV what does the pts mean like when you put 1 - 3pts after each horse

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pts = points it's a method of saying how strongly you fancy a horse. 1pt is basically your standard bet. So say you normally bet a tenner as your standard bet then 1pt or 1 point is = £10 

 

Everyone will have a different amount they can wager and it stops tipping from being people saying nonsense like £200 on xyz. A points system allows tipping irrespective of the money bet.

 

 

I'll share with ye my Day 1 and Day 2 mails I send to my mates and brothers now. Most selections will end up on my site tomorrow. 

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Tuesday 

 
Below are the latest selections for the Tuesdays racing. I've given a good guide to what to bet on based on current prices which are in brackets beside their names. You should think about what is your normal stake, say £20 and bet each horse with that same standard stake unless I've said double or triple stake.
 
 
Supreme Novices Hurdle
 
Paddy Power are doing offer money back up to €50 if your horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th. So it has to be the full 50 quid on Vautour (3/1), he will not be out of the places. He's 3/1 and a simple way to start. 
 
Arkle
 
This is a tricky race to really make money in. I like Champagne Fever but he's probably better over further than 2 miles. Dodging Bullets (5/1) is solid as a rock as an each way bet here at 5/1 but it's a race to watch and not bet on really. It's really between the top 4 in the betting. 
 
Baylis and Harding Handicap Chase
 
Cause of Causes looks like he'll go for Kim Muir on Thursday. I liked Cantlow but he'll carry top weight and that puts me off. I really like Hadrians Approach (9/1) but the value is going on him. Anything 7/1 or above is worth a bet. Holywell (12/1) is another who will have a great chance here, he's be plotted up for this all season. He's value at anything 8/1 and above. But one I've dug out of the crowd is Ackertac (33/1) he came 2nd at last years festival and then won at the course in April. He's on a good mark and would look a perfect each way one here. 
 
The Champion Hurdle
 
Hurricane Fly (3/1) is a consistent and brilliant horse. Ruby has given him a couple of bad rides at the last 2 festivals and I'm certain with Captain Cee Bee in there making the running they'll all know what's going to happen and can plan for the race accordingly. Despite being 10yo Fly looks as good as ever and he really should be a lot shorter than 3/1. I'd go triple normal stake on him. 
 
Mares Hurdle
 
It'll be great to see Quevega win this for a record 6th time in a row. But at odds of 4/6 she's nothing really interesting. Cockney Sparrow (8/1) looks a decent e/w shot here as she has some fine form with My Tent or Yours this season. She should make the frame. But like the Arkle there's no need to bet in this race really. 
 
National Hunt Chase
 
I'm a big big fan of Shutthefrontdoor (6/1) I think he'll go off fav for this and anything 4/1 or better he's worth a bet. He's one I'd get on now as there will be lots of non runners when the final declarations are made on Monday. Suntiep (16/1) is another who's price will crash after the declarations, he's a dour stayer and will certainly plug on and make the frame. He's a decent each way bet. 
 
Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase
 
I love this race, had winners and placed horses most years. Pendra (7/1) is rapidly losing any value in his price. I wouldn't back him at lower than 6/1 and he's in this land of I fancy him but his price is putting me off tipping him up. Wait until the day and see what price he is in the morning but instead I like Baby Mix (20/1). He races from the front or up with the pace and has a good jockey booking with Davy Russell. He was rated 10lbs higher over hurdles. One who hasn't seen their price crash is Attaglance (16/1) he's won at the festival before and is rated well below his best mark over hurdles, he loves good ground which he'll get here and is a 2nd season novice so has quite a bit of experience going into this.
 
 
Everyone loves an accumulator and one for today would be Champagne Fever, Hurricane Fly & Quevega.

Wednesday

 
Neptune Novices Hurdle
 
Faugheen (11/4) is a fantastic horse and one who should prove very hard to beat in what looks a very poor renewal of this race. I'd fancy him as the best chance of a winner for the day. Go three times normal stake
 
RSA Novices Chase
 
This is a very open race and I could see any of 7 horses winning this. But one I know will run well and be staying on at the end is Morning Assembly (8/1) and he seems the most solid bet.
 
The Coral Cup
 
The first handicap hurdle of the week there are two I like for this, firstly is Far West (20/1) who was unlucky to fall at the last in the Betfair hurdle, he'll like the step up in trip and is a classy horse. Another is Cotton Mill (33/1) finally going back up in trip to the same course and distance when he was running a blinder 2 years ago in the Neptune. 
 
Champion Chase
 
This is without doubt the worst running of this race that I can remember. It's wide open. I think Captain Conan (5/1) is a quality 2 mile chaser over this course and he wasn't right when beaten in the Tingle Creek in December. He looks worth a bet here as he goes well fresh. 
 
Cross Country Handicap Chase
 
This is a race lots of people dislike, but it's been rather easy to work out in it's time. Horses who've won over the course have a fine record. I like Sire Collonges (8/1) who won on his last start over c&d and on the same ground he'll get here. 
 
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
 
Goodwood Mirage (10/1) cost a lot of money and Jonjo his trainer still think he'll end up a Champion hurdle horse next year. He needs good ground and he'll get that. AP McCoy fancies him to boot. Clarcam (20/1) is one who has run solidly all season and is very much like Flaxen Flare, Elliott's winner of this race last year. Experienced with 6 hurdle runs for a 4yo too. Looks his race.
 
Champion Bumper
 
I've never won this race but I liked Black Hercules (6/1) - Patrick Mullins get the pick of the Mullins bumper horses and he has plumped for this fella. Simple.

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