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Kiev Burning


maqroll

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So we are sending the Light Brigade over? No good is going to come from this.

We've got a 100% record in the Crimea...

 

No one in the West is going to do anything, whatever our commitments may be. Notable that the EU are deathly silent on the issue after Baroness Ashton was giving it large in Kiev last week. Any lip from them and Putin can literally turn off the gas to central Europe.

 

Looks like the old Russia is back.

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It looks to me increasingly less like occupation of Crimea and more of a case of 'clearing a path'.

 

Also

 

 

 

According to various Russian and Ukrainian reports, the crisis is spreading from Crimea to other parts of the Ukraine. There are reports that pro-Russian demonstrators in Donestsk and Kharkiv have attempted to take parliament buildings.

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"Military exercises on the border are purely coincidental". 

 

The old ones are still the best. Didn't Austria/Serbia start with that old chestnut 100 years ago? 

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UN Security Council will convene at an emergency meeting at 7.

 

Meanwhile, the nationalist paramilitary groups in Ukraine are mobilising...

 

 

 

According to Ukrainian Pravda, Sector Right called on all its units to mobilise.

This is their statement:

“Being aware of all the dangers that are looming over the Ukrainian state, the headquarters of the Right Sector orderall its units to mobilise and arm, and depending on the specific situation to coordinate with the armed forces.
We remind all citizens of Ukraine regardless of nationality (including Russians ) that our struggle is anti-imperial , not Russophobe . Russian empire will be destroyed. Urge Resistance Movement Caucasus and all liberation movements in Russia to step up their activities.”

 

Also, Klitschko wants a scrap.

Edited by CarewsEyebrowDesigner
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From what I can gather from the channel 4 report just now , Moscow have basically just engineered a situation wherein Russian boots will be in the Ukraine and everyone is just standing idly by . This is going to be messy .

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I think it largely depends on how Ukraine's new government react. If the nationalist groups and Ukraine military start mobilizing and gunning for Russia, then things will get very messy. As things stand, the West can only calm Ukraine and negotiate for a truce and a series of referendums that will probably result in Crimea and a good whack east of the Dnipro becoming Russian in all but name. I don't see any larger war spiraling out simply because it isn't in anyone's interest.  Russian foreign policy has always been about having a nice buffer between itself and Europe, but if that buffer policy starts becoming an expansionist policy, then we should start to worry.

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The Ukrainian PM has said that if Russia advances militarily, there will be war. I wonder what kind of assurances he's had from NATO, the UN or even US/UK/France?

 

Troubling times...

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I think it largely depends on how Ukraine's new government react. If the nationalist groups and Ukraine military start mobilizing and gunning for Russia, then things will get very messy. As things stand, the West can only calm Ukraine and negotiate for a truce and a series of referendums that will probably result in Crimea and a good whack east of the Dnipro becoming Russian in all but name. I don't see any larger war spiraling out simply because it isn't in anyone's interest.

 

Interesting article and maps on RFERL talking about the whole ' Southern & Eastern Ukraine is Russian' soundbite that's being mentioned over the past few days showing how its a bit more complex. Here's the region on the border where pro-Russian Kharkiv is in. 

 

768DA678-80E7-4883-8298-CC79991B8AD5_w64 

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Hungary 56 - the west did nothing. Czechoslovakia 68 - the west did nothing. Ukraine 14 - the west will do nothing. Probably just as well, on balance.

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