jackbauer24

It's the arrogance of some on here to question those that worry about things not going our way.

Oh we're guaranteed to win Europa. Oh 5th is guaranteed to be Champions League. Oh we're guaranteed 4th.

Crap.

I'd take either; the fan wanting a trophy and the logical side wanting the potential for greater growth in the CL.

Unfortunately, it's not a case of one of the other... It could be both, but I imagine the likelihood of it being neither is actually greater.

And that would be a devastating end to an incredible season. So close but so far.

Being in Champions League doesn't guarantee anything.

But not being in Champions League will definitely cause a bump in the road at the very best.

FFP and players leaving (having got so close and wanting it more) will happen and mean getting this close again may take some time.

It's an incredible season but don't pretend it won't be absolutely devastating not to be rewarded with CL and/or a cup.

1 minute ago, Kiwivillan said:

Are people still worried about 2 away wins in last 10 league games Spurs?

Am I worried about a team that is 3 points behind us but with a game in hand when the difference between 4th and 5th is a Champions League spot.... mmm... yes. Yes I am.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility, maybe even a decent bet, that EVERY English team exits this week.

5th is not going to be Champions League.

This is exactly where the fear comes from for some of us more negative types!!

Villa finally doing well and it just feels like everything goes against us.

Normally England would be a shoo-in for that extra spot, now it effects us, practically EVERY result goes against us. Even the draw.

Man City edgy. Arsenal probably going out. Atletico failing. West Ham crumbling. Liverpool shocking. Villa have it tough. Just couldn't have gone much worse.

So, despite odds and likelihood and all that law of averages stuff, I just can't envisage us catching a damn break! Something will stop it... us or the draw.

I'd be a lot more confident of 4th if we had the safety net of 5th being a CL place! If Arsenal, City, Atletico and ourselves could progress, I think we'd push on without pressure and get 4th. I don't care if Spurs get 5th and a CL spot, if we want to be a big team we just need to take care of ourselves.

But if results go badly, then pressure will be on every match and with such tight margins.

Greedily, I desperately want a cup too! CL is better for the club, but trophies are better for most fans. Again, if by Thursday results have gone our way, I'd fancy us really going for it vs Lille. If they haven't, I worry we may focus/prioritise Bournemouth.

Reckon we know what's what by late evening next Sunday. A MASSIVE week for us in all ways.

6 minutes ago, ben1505 said:

Spurs could conceivably get 0 points from these fixtures. This would come with at best -3 to their goal difference.

If only we didn't have to play Arsenal, Chelsea and... Liverpool!! It's the other games that are relevant.

I have some fears of holding on to 5th, but they reduce slightly as the games run out.

However, that's nothing to with irrational fears, but the fact we have six games left, two of which we're strong favourites to lose and two of which are incredibly tricky (rejuvenated Chelsea and Brighton away) meaning our two 'bankers' of Bournemouth and Palace (A) have a lot of increased pressure on them.

Add to that suspensions, injuries, a lack of form and the fact we've no experience in this situation, I'm uneasy crowing that we've got 5th or above in the bag so confidently as others. A win against Bournemouth may change that with a few other favourable results. It's not a sleight on Emery to suggest we may struggle to hold fifth, it's a culmination of the situation you can find yourself in this part of the season when you're a smaller team in terms of squad depth and experience. We're looking good for it at the moment... But not enough to be shouting 'ole' with every pass.

But with 5th now looking incredibly shaky for CL anyway, it may well be irrelevant. 5th or 6th wouldn't make much of a difference. It'd be fourth or nothing and that looks tricky, despite both us and Spurs stuttering, as they have the healthier squad, the experience, the game in hand and no European distractions.

Suppose most of this will be clear one way or the other in the next 10 days.

10 hours ago, wishywashy said:

 

I have never done a Villa game abroad and it's been a good few years since I've even done an away game but my adult nephew fancies doing this and said we should go... How easy is it to get tickets for these kind of preseason games?

A quick bit of research suggests a flight and hotel for night or two wouldn't cost too much really.

Any advice?

1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

You can’t draw two games and go through now they’ve taken out away goals

I thought they counted it as two draws and then penalties wasn't counted other than for progression?

This is why we want as many wins as possible, both for English teamsand obviously ourselves.

In the incredibly unlikely event we win 5-0 tomorrow, I'd still want us to go strong enough to win the second leg too as that directly helps us. Same in reverse too, get smashed and we shouldn't give up on a win as it all counts.

West Ham will go out in all likelihood, but if they could nick a win or a draw in one of the legs it would help.

Aimed at no one in particular, but people get told off for 'bed wetting' when early scores or results go against us, but the opposite happens and we're allowed to party after 15mins?!

I really hope that next week we can be practically assured that 5th is a CL spot, but at the moment both Man City and Arsenal are on a knife edge, with one the favourite and the other one behind, and less than a half in to today's fixtures and still awaiting tomorrows.

Early gloating is just as bad as early doom mongering, except when people are doom mongering and are wrong, we're delighted, when you gloat and fail you look silly.

Interestingly, I've just read that Liverpool fans are protesting at a 2% increase in ST prices for next season. Spurs are increasing theirs by 6% with people vocally complaining.

I get that the pound cost might be different here, but it seems odd that all of us are exoecting much bigger increases and there is little, to no, real protest about it.

I do find it... interesting... how you're not 'allowed' to have a different view point on here sometimes. Whilst I agree that certain posters are barely short of trolling, the concern some have for our end of season results and rewards are often scoffed at. How come blind optimism that it'll all go our way is allowed but worry isn't?! I wish I could think positively, but my experience of life and football is normally, if shit can go wrong, it will!

We're going to get 4th definitely. Mmm...

We're going to get 5th definitely. Strongly probable... But definitely?

We'll get CL regardless. Have you seen the draw?

We'll win Conference. Hardest draw/route possible.

I think the odds of it all going our way are diminishing almost week by week, and soon probably day by day. I take ZERO enjoyment in that and hate the idea I could be right and definitely wouldn't be saying I told you so. But equally people shouldn't be hounded for being pessimistic.

I'm also concious of our run at the end of last season to secure Europe... How far out were we with six games remaining? That's not rhetorical, I don't know!! But it's a lot easier, mentally, chasing than being pursued.

We've had DECADES of struggling, it's hard to be confident things will work out. Someone going to chase us down? CL place not going to England? What's going to go wrong?!

Feels this is/was our opportunity for CL and now it's out our hands in the league and as regards coefficients. We might make the most of it with our owners. But miss out, and I think we'll fall back while we lose players and have to address finances.

I'm terrified!!! Thinking the worst will happen makes it easier to cope with, rather than being crushed when it does! I just can't see it all going right from this point... I hope more than anyone that I'm wrong and will take ZERO delight if my fears become reality.

Spurs will win today, very little doubt about that... just about when it comes. So let's assume same points.

They then face;

Newcastle (A) Arsenal (H) Chelsea (A) Liverpool (A) Burnley (H) Sheffield Utd (A) and Man City (H)

We have;

Arsenal (A) Bournemouth (H) Chelsea (H) Brighton (A) Liverpool (H) Palace (A)

We have three of the same teams. Let's assume they lose to Man City. So it comes down to Newcastle, Burnley and Sheffield or our Bournemouth Brighton and Palace. They definitely have the easier fixtures. We also aren't in form and have European games. Finally, I suspect they'll get more from the tricky Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool games than we will - they'll benefit from the local derby underdog status and nick points and/or wins.

Think Spurs are STRONG favourites for fourth.

For fifth, Man Utd have very very easy run in. Hardest games are Newcastle (H) and Arsenal (H). Be nice for us to shut off that avenue once and for all before too long as the pressure could build. But we're still reliant on the European games for that.

2 minutes ago, Mantis said:

How did we throw in the towel? Because we played Lenglet instead of Torres and Iroegbunam instead of Tielemans? Because literally all the other would be starters who didn't feature were out through injury/illness/suspension.

And "giving yourself the best chance you can in every game" sounds nice in theory but is impossible in practice. You have to rotate - it's impossible not to do with the number of games we have.

Oh come on... Bailey? Chambers coming on. Everyone acknowledges that some changes were forced, others were perhaps more cautionary (Watkins) but when your team is already weakened then you don't do it further by starting three or four first teamers on thr bench as well.

He threw that game, some people don't mind and some, including me, see the logic but I don't like it at all and don't think it serves a purpose. I'd have rather gone stronger then and rest Pau for today (his rest clearly didnt work!) and play Iroegbunam ahead of Tielemans against an opposition he realistically could have competed with.

We put out the type of side you put out when you don't care if you go out the cup... But even that is normally against weaker opposition.

We threw that game. Whether you agree with the approach or not, that's what we did.

11 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

The booking was always going to happen within next few games. May as well get it out the way so he’s back with us for the final push in those 4 games we have him back for. 

If he'd kept his head for literally a minute longer, then he wouldn't have faced a ban this season as today was last chance for totting up. 

6 minutes ago, Mantis said:

That isn't how it works at all. Firstly, we didn't "throw in the towel" to begin with, we just rotated a bit, which literally all the top teams do and we need to do especially because of all the injuries we've had. Second, it's not like we "traded" a defeat to Man City for an expected win today therefore because we didn't win today it somehow "backfired" and wasn't worth doing. The point of rotation is to spread out the minutes among the squad more evenly so you can get the most out of your players.

You say "point against City" (as if we haven't lost there literally a dozen times in a row) and "maybe today is a win" but what's just as likely would've been a defeat to City, with key players even more tired, and then we lose today.

Also, 4th isn't a "pipe dream". Spurs have an advantage of course but we're literally 4th right now with 6 games to go.

Whilst I may admit my anger is clouding my judgement a little, we definitely threw in the towel against City before a ball was kicked.

The number of changes was not necessary and completely sabotaged any chance of a result. Yes, teams rotate but against weaker sides in the hope the players left are still good enough to get a result. I can't think of another team who has rested players against better opposition.

And the discussion about whether we could have won both, lost both is conjecture and backs up my view to some degree - you give yourself the best chance you can in every game as points can be gained and lost anywhere.

We can't now battle for a few weeks... Next up is Arsenal and they are currently better than City so we will need to wave white flag and put out the kids. We'll also have European games either side.

So we'll have to wait til Bournemouth before we hope to get some more points...

You may have guessed - I am seethig about the last week!!

Luiz was not good at all today. Passing was off, tackling was off, game management was off. For whatever reason, new not been on it at all in last month or so. The card at the end was moronic frankly. Some blame to Unai for not getting him off before this as he wasnt contributing much anyway.

And today is EXACTLY why I was fuming at our approach against City. You can not just throw in the towel against any team, otherwise you'll never pick up surprise points and only drop 'guaranteed' ones.

Did we look any fresher today?! Made zero difference. Now lost Luiz for a stupid unneeded tackle in, what, the 97th minute?! Smacks of arrogance against likes of Brentford to assume we just needed a break, but also suggests Unai doesn't gave faith in his near first XI to get anything either. Just a bad look all round. Point against City, be a little tired but on a high and maybe today is a win.

Feels like 2024 has just been Villa trying to think of new ways to mess up such an amazing season to that point. Flat games, poor performances, cup exits, losing badly to teams around us, McGinn red, Unai throwing a game, Ramsey injury, Luiz suspension. Just been a terrible 3 months really. Sheffield Utd only real highlight.

Fourth is a pipe dream frankly, Man Utd are doing a better job of giving us a chance of fifth than we are. Need them to lose again tomorrow.

I have recently completed a streak of 365. I have since actively decided to stop playing and broken it. I can now just play as and when again rather than feeling pressure every day to play and get it correct!! I did what I set out to do and I'm now free

1 hour ago, omariqy said:

So I have looked at a few different scenarios 

Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through

Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below

Scenario 1 

Man City - 0.500 points in total

Bayern - 0.571 points

Arsenal - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500 

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.660

England - 17.875

England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. 

 

Scenario 2

Bayern - 0.571

Man City - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.375

In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals

 

Scenario 3

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.125

Germany - 17.214

England - 17.5

In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it

 

Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario 

Man City - 0.500

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.214

England - 18.25

In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 

Amazing work!

So, to summarise (I think!) using your entirely sensible Draw/Win legs average;

If Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool or West Ham go through, add 0.5 to England's score

If they go out, add 0.125

If Bayern Munich, Leverkusen or Dortmund go through, add 0.571

If they go out, add 0.143

Villa... I'm unsure why we're different but 0.375 for a win... For a loss?

This is added on to;

England 16.250 and Germany 16.357.

So my feeling is Real Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Villa through... 

England 16.250 + 0.125 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.375 = 17.875

Germany 16.357 + 0.143 + 0.571 + 0.571 = 17.642

Gonna be tight... When did football start involving so much maths?!