WaccoeOnline

The debt for share swap Xia did the day before the playoff finals suggests he was planning a quick flip to another owner had you gone up, netting Tony a good few quid in the process. That’s what he was counting on, and in all likelihood it would all have turned out ok had the ball landed on the black not the red. He isn’t/wasn’t into Villa for the long haul but as a short term gamble which has - sadly for the fans more than anything - gone badly wrong.

I thought the latter point was settled some time ago? China relaxed currency curbs nearly a year ago. The excuse that he "can't get funds out of China" is bizarre invention. He may have severe cashflow problems, given that the biggest of his Chinese companies (such as they are) have been losing money for years. Indeed its questionable given his recent statements (and what you've suffered since he took over) whether he has any money at all in the conventional sense. But if he had ready money, there is nothing that would stop him from bringing it from China to the UK to meet end of month financial deadlines (as opposed to - say - mortgaging future transfer income) Still you have to admire Xia for his academic achievements, at least. I'm sure as he struggles with funding crises in China and Birmingham, his degree in landscape architecture will come in super handily.

Point is we had to pay royally to get rid of our good players. Imagine if Spurs took Grealish and you had to pay 30% of his wages as well, so the deal cost more than the transfer fee over time. But you were forced to say yes to meet cash flow requirements. That’s the sorts of deals we ended up signing. How much will you have to pay to get rid of your terrible ones? If McCormack is unsellable, would it be worth paying up his contract at 85% of its value in outstanding wages if payments were staged? Cos that’s the sort of deal you might end up having to do.

As you say, a lot depends on whether Xia is prepared to write off whatever he has put into the club and walk away with a quid in exchange for someone else taking on the debt or wants to hang on as long as possible whilst hoping a bigger fool comes along. The longer he hangs on the less will be left for the next owner to work with and the longer and more expensive the climb back. It is entirely possible (and indeed probable) that selling at a massive loss is no worse for Xia than selling/hocking whatever isn’t nailed down to delay what will become an inevitable admin. And at least the latter offers him the remote chance of something/someone turning up to save him and (if he is that way inclined - our “bad” owners tended to be) a bit of time to do some side deals to extract what he can from what’s left of the club to slightly mitigate his losses. Side deals on a Villa Park sale, that sort of thing. If that’s the case it could get messy very soon and makes getting a Xia out campaign up and running a priority. Personal shaming and financial pressure are the only two weapons you have. Whilst we couldn’t get a boycott of games going on a scale we tried. Anything that brings financial matters to a head sooner rather than later can only be a good thing for you. A swift admin might be better for you than Xia selling all your assets leaving an absolute wreck behind for whoever steps in eventually to sort things out.

For those of you who can be bothered to register at www.waccoe.com and want to check out how we ran our campaign against Cellino from our message board, have a read of these threads for a few ideas about getting your Xia out campaign going. Edit: apols for rules breach - apparently I can't post links without including quotes of material. Didn't realist that was a rule here. Don't want to spam you with endless content. if you want direct links to the content PM me or @hooter

So now hire all the ad signage around Villa Park with unflattering photos of him and those slogans

The worst case, based on what we sufffered is that as Xia is now “acting CEO” as he claims, that will come at some considerable cost in “management expenses”, with extra on top to cover the considerable expertise brought to the table by the 29 year old Loughborough sports studies graduate. And that’s before payments are made for the weapons grade HR skills that professor woman is contributing to the business. As you point out, the trick GFH perfected to maximize income from that scam was buying us with our own debt. Then making us borrow more (from a company they happened to own) to cover those management fees, whilst starving us of cash to pay wages and pitch maintenance, etc. at the time my back of envelope calculations suggested they’d made a profit on their acquisition just through that, which made whatever they got for the wreck of the club they left behind a bonus. This meant that the next owner (utter loon that he was) was already doomed to fail whether or not he was competent (he wasn’t) as the debt around the clubs neck was somewhere close to our total value. A shame he somehow was conned into not doing due diligence prior to purchase... Bates’ wheeze was to create internal markets in which the club paid other entities owned by him for stuff most other clubs got for free internal or even raised cash from. Like Leeds United paying Yorkshire Radio for the right to broadcast our games (rather than the other way around). Or building contracts for work to the ground that were so excessive in value you wondered whether some of the money made its way back somehow as part of the deal (of course maybe he was just terrible at negotiating building contracts..) Do still think there is money for Xia to make out of the car crash by selling assets (like the ground) at under value to BVI entities with penal rent back arrangements and a cash kick back on the side. He may just lack the expertise in structuring it. I know of a currently under employed sports investor in Cornwall who might be willing to help if asked...

If I was Xia and looking to make what I could out of this shambles drawing on historic precedent, I'd put VP on the market now to get the 6 month clock ticking asap and then sell at a £10m discount to market value to whatever BVI owner fancied extracting rent for the next 20 years, whilst pocketing a £5m facilitation fee through a side deal - either openly for "consultancy" or via a payment to another BVI registered shell. In fact, I might even set up my own BVI company to do that deal, appointing another one as an "agent" and copping a 25% fee for facilitating the sale, smuggling both cash and assets out of the club at well under value before the club gets anywhere near admin. That way I'd have Villa Park plus £5m (or whatever) of the sale price rebated back to me before anyone could join the dots. Might then sell the BVI holding company for a multiple of the rent income, which would bypass that difficult community asset nonsense and win me some more money. Might even start to get close to recouping whatever minimal cash I put in to get the club in the first place. What do you reckon @hooter? Reckon if Xia isnt up for it, there are people we know who would be. Has anyone got Hisham on the phone recently? Or Stanley?

I cant remember whether this has any impact on it being used as security against debt. Presumably if its effectively mortgaged, a sale could be forced with the bank effectively choosing the next owner. tbh I've always been wary of a supporters trust (or local council) owning a ground without owning the club, as the scope for game playing around rent, etc - and bad owners blaming good fans for their own ineptitude is too great. Ideally ground and club should go hand in hand. Our particular adventures around ground ownership you wouldn't want to wish on anyone however

Surely now he’s become not just owner but acting CEO he’ll be in and out of Villa Park every day

Think at the time we probably thought you were lucky to have Lerner compared to the filth in charge of our club

The truth is most of our fans were apathetic or actively collaborated with the crooks wrecking us turning on their own trying to save the club. Was prob only 3000 or so hardcore, mostly originally off our messageboard but also organising via twitter, who got behind the campaign. And maybe only 10-20 getting properly stuck into organising, leafleting, poster campaigns, media, etc. But sometimes that’s all it takes. And when a few hundred lads online one evening can raise £10k just like that - and then week after week to keep stunts and campaigns going, you’ve a chance. Sad fact is a lot of our “fans” would abuse the protestors - singing “support the club or xxxx off home” when protests started, etc. probably the majority of our fans were like yours, but even worse were like that over 10-15 years. Even set up their own pro-owner group “In Massimo We Trust” to coordinate vile attacks and smears on those pushing for change. Thankfully enough good lads were willing to stand up and be counted enough to keep our self respect. Even if some had their lives disrupted and pulled apart as a result of the sacrifices they made and how far the quislings and collaborators in our fanbase were willing to go to turn on their own rather than on the vile scum who owned us. Stories could be told. And some will never be forgiven. But more important were those who put lives on hold to try to make a difference. Am sure with support as large as yours you can find their like and galvanize more, if you choose to.

To be fair we weren’t aiming for the Brimningham press but we did make it all over the national tabloids, particularly with the projection stunt. And into his local papers in Italy. But the insulting posters all round the ground were as effective in making him uncomfortable and unhappy. Heres a bit of the coverage https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/football-league/leeds-united-fans-step-up-campaign-against-massimo-cellino-with-elland-road-protest-a6876701.html https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/leeds-fans-hire-for-sale-8006230 https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/apr/15/leeds-fans-protest-massimo-cellino-reading https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/494804/Leeds-fans-protest-Massimo-Cellino-images-projected-Elland-Road of course at the time you were probably still enjoying your football, no need to pay attention to a northern club on its knees...

If you need help on the mechanics, I'm sure @hooter or me could put you in touch with the lads who ran the campaign to get Massimo Cellino (Time To Go Massimo) out of the club - the stuff he linked to in his recent post. Wasn't just laser projections on stands during televised games, we hired all the commercial billboards round the ground and put up signs denouncing him (its less expensive than you think), as well as the usual demos, marches, etc. The aim was to cause maximum embarrassment and discomfort for him all the time to the point where it reduced the threshold at which, when other stuff turned against him, he would throw in the towel. Aim was to reach the Italian (but in your case the Chinese) press as much as UK and local audiences to make him look an embarrassment back at home as much as he was at Leeds. Took a lot of coordination and a fair whack of cash. We used Waccoe - our equivalent of VillaTalk - to raise cash to help kickstart some of it. The projections cost close to £10k, but we raised that in less than 12hrs on waccoe from board members. Other stuff not so expensive, and we used board members with graphic design skills, lawyers on the board offering time for free, etc. Also created huge amounts of memes, photoshops, etc that could be used on twitter to rile and annoy him and his supporters. I'm sure theres a lot that could be shared if you wanted it.

Sympathy. We've been through it all. I know some of you have said over recent weeks that I'm wrong, and that what happened at Leeds is no guide as to what is happening to Villa. I'm afraid that its all too familiar and was all too predictable. Genuinely feel sorry for you guys. Historic clubs shouldn't be wrecked by foreign conmen.

Its pretty clear now that Xia doesn’t have the sources of cash to fund your club and probably never has. The money that has gone into Villa since his purchase has all been parachute payments, fresh debt or asset sales. If he wants to hold on for it’s for a couple of reasons (1) he can’t afford to sell at the loss he would have to sell at, it would wipe him out given that his Chinese interests are all **** as well; and (2) given that he might as well cling on in the hope something turns up. The likely (if grim) truth for you guys is that catastrophic administration at Villa is no worse for Xia than a sale at fair value so for him the rational thing to do is keep his claws in on the off chance someone turns up to offer more than take the club and it’s debts off him for a penny (or whatever your real net worth is at the moment). Of course his ideal scenario is that someone buys a minority stake in the club in exchange for injecting a load of cash. But only another delusional lunatic would buy in on those terms. And you don’t need another delusional lunatic owner. So you sell Grealish and Chester for the highest upfront fee you can manage as distressed sellers. Perhaps £15m in total, which should enable you to make it through to October at their current burn rate. Given loans have all disappeared off, it doesnt leave you with much of a team. You can’t afford to sack Bruce so he’ll hang around until a better offer comes in or go through the motions. In the meantime the club’s infrastructure will be gutted - didn’t another senior backroom guy leave today/yesterday?And I guess you hope that what turns up isn’t mid season meltdown, relegation and admin...:(

Interesting article, though sad experience of dishonest and incompetent owners at Leeds suggests the wrong question is being asked. The article speculates as to what the censure might mean for Xia’s ability to access more investment from China. Reckon the bigger question is “if he would lie and falsify this sort of stuff in China, what might he be lying about and falsifying in relation to Aston Villa’s business affairs and financial situation, and how might that impact on the club if/when it comes out?”

We got a lot of this at Leeds. Usually it meant someone had come in, looking at the disaster of our books and walking away. But our glorious owner couldn’t admit to that level of indignity do Pretended he was swimming in mystery bids which he was always turning down because they weren’t for the good of the club or weren’t ever quite high enough. Of course your bids may indeed be real ones....

Ken Bates ?

Is she this professor? https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yanfang_Gu If so, her specialism is "Biofilm Formation" - ie managing scum...

And largely fictitious CV from the sound of it....

So who is Yanfang Gu - the "executive president" of Shanghai SmartTech Group? and new(ish) director of your club? Her declared remuneration seems quite low for such an exalted title. About £35k a year... https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officer-profile/002178ta.SZ/1058649 And what does she know about running football clubs?

Wow

Leeds experience is that when you’re on your uppers financially, the club doesn’t go to the highest bidder but to the bidder most willing to purchase with limited due diligence and/or with minimal indemnities against any possible hidden liabilities turning up in the future. From the point of view of the exiting bad owner, they just want the last bit of cash out and no comeback ever again. The value of the club vs debt is probably close to negative, particularly if retention’s against potential future liabilities are taken into account. But the bad owner wants/needs cash and the ability to get away fast (and - if they are particularly greedy - undertakings as to a share of any upside if the next owner somehow turns it around). No responsible business person would ever agree to this so the only potential bidders willing to trade on the terms of the bad owner are people even more reckless, criminal or stupid than the guy selling. Which is not a good trajectory for any club. We were eventually saved because a combination of FA/FL personal bans, fan unrest and potential prison in Italy made Cellino a willing seller before he could wreck things in the way he seemed set on. The cycle of wrecking that started with Bates picking us up when we were in a similar situation to the one you’re in now was broken. But only after 15 years of wrecking and disaster. Have to say it’s not looking good at the moment. A lot rests on whether Xia has any moral compass at all or if he just wants to he away with a few quid in his pocket regardless of the consequences. If his exit is a messy one it could get very bad indeed. A professionally run Administration might be the least worst option if it enables you to shed the debt and be bought by someone moderately honest and competent.

Suggests he was ready for a quick flip if Villa had gone up, realising his gain and letting someone else in to sort the finances. The problem was losing that game. Left a bunch of unnecessary shares and no way to finance the ongoing cash needs of the business. Think the share issue means less in terms of where you are now than the Macquarie deal does. Hard to see why anyone would want to buy Villa until the owner was as distressed as possible. There may be a lot more pain before you get there.