villianusa

3 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

@villianusa just to add to this post, you said you didn't agree with my original analysis. The data used for that chart and the other charts is available online. The author posted it to show full transparency of his data, which is why the errors are so easily exposed. If you do some googling you can get to it so I would be interested to see what you think of it. You should be able to see the error he's made for yourself

Cheers, I will look into it again. Did you see the video I posted yesterday from the second Georgia fraud hearing? This is where the senate committee (both sides)said we can see something isn't right and voted for a forensic audit of the Dominion machine. The state is still yet to abide by the ruling. I wonder why?

28 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

He took it at face value where it appears to show votes being deducted from Trump.

Which is admittedly pretty alarming. But misrepresents the reality.

I wasn't trying to shit on Villianusa. Just trying to show him why the chart he has presented is incorrect

This is the video I was talking about what happened in Georgia on November 3rd HERE This was given at the 2nd Georgia state senate hearing into election fraud. This is the same data that the Secretary of State has certified the election. Again, votes should not go down, they should be accumulative. 

The state was told to hand over the machines for forensic viewing, but they are unwilling to do so. Why would you not want to be proved correct? Why are many states deleting election data that is a federal crime (supposed to be kept for 22 months)? 

I appreciate the discussion. 

11 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I agree that shouldn't happen.

I've seen this chart before and looked into it. The bottom line is, it didn't happen.

 

The chart (and several others like it that appear to have come from the same data) was created by writing a script that scraped the NYT live voting data.

The problem is, that data was incredibly high level, and only gave the number of votes counted and the proportion of votes (Dem or Rep) to the nearest 0.1% (which I'm sure you can appreciate is nowhere near enough decimal places when you're dealing with millions of votes)

 

The mistake the person who created these charts has made, which as a stats guy I'm sure you'll appreciate is pretty fundamental, is they've used the CUMULATIVE percentage of votes (i.e the percentage of all votes cast up to that point) to split the latest batch of votes.

 

For example, let's say we are halfway through counting and the current split of all the votes up to now was 49% Rep 51% Dem (I've made up those numbers as an example). The latest batch of votes come in, let's say it's a batch of 100 votes. I'm sure you'll agree that 100 votes is not enough to change that overall ratio of 49% vs 51% when we're talking about millions and millions of votes. But in the data this person has used, he' has assumed that cumulative percentage is the percentage split of that 100 votes that has come in. We have no way of knowing what the split of that 100 votes is, only that it didn't change the overall split. It could be 100 votes for biden, 100 for trump, 50/50, whatever. However this person collecting this data has assumed those votes split exactly 49/51.

This is a fundamental error and is enough to discount any analysis based off it. The person collecting it has incorrectly reverse engineered the data to get to vote numbers which are totally false. 

This coupled with the fact the percentages are rounded to far too few decimal places when dealing with large numbers means that the numbers being used are, largely, complete nonsense.

And it also means when you do get large swings in data, like the infamous 170k batch for which 120k were Biden votes, incorrectly backing the data out on rounded percentages gives you negative numbers as above.

 

TL;DR, the data is wrong

If all of what you say is true, but I disagree with it. Why would Trump lose over 100,000 votes and the same amount go to Biden?

5 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

 

 

 

So you believe an anti fascist group stopped the electoral college count that was about to confirm the loss of a fascist wannabe dictator ?

Cool .

 

I imagine Trump is counting on there being more fools like this to be honest . Won't be long before he's retweeting "It was Antifa" bollocks.

I don't know, but the truth will hopefully be out sooner than later. 

Try and be an adult and stop with the insults because someone disagrees with you. 

17 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

And who does the DC National Guard report to?

The Department of Defense

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

We gonna profile every one of them just to rule out Antifa?

I won't be, but I'm sure many will be. 

7 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

There will need to be a proper inquiry into the peculiar police response to this - it's been entirely un-American.

In lots of ways, this is a much better way to police these things - but I've a feeling this ain't the new normal.

 

I agree, the national guard were there for the Georgia run off, there should have been there today also. 

Just now, a m ole said:

He’s a Qanon dickhead called Jake Angiel. 2 mins of research.

There, the truth is out.

Yes, I just saw that, that's one down, more to go. I hope he gets plenty of time behind bars. 

3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I won't mock you like everyone else.

What do you think this chart is showing?

It shows votes at certain points on the night Trump losing votes. That should not happen, both candidates should go up not down. 

The second stack of data shows the exact number of votes leaving Trump and going to Biden. I am happy for someone else to explain why that would happen. I am trying to look for a video that I can share, that could explain it better than I could if I tried all night.

I appreciate the question.

If I'm wrong, I will come back here and admit it. . Will you and others here do the same?

1 minute ago, Keyblade said:

Sure. But you're casting doubt where there isn't any currently.

Only doubt because certain people believe only one way. Whoever it is needs to be prosecuted, not just if they are Trump supporters. Sadly, most in here only seem to believe that. 

7 minutes ago, maqroll said:

Keep posting your propaganda 

Propaganda, because you don't agree with it? Oh, ok, so people who disagree with you are automatically making it up. Sounds familiar.

7 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Being at a BLM march doesn't make you "BLM" (whatever that means) does it? One glance at him tells me he'd be on the opposing side to that.

As I said, hopefully the truth will out.

Whoever is causing the violence in DC needs to be prosecuted. There is very good footage and they will be exposed one way or the other. Someone as identified this guy as BLM, but I don't know, but hopefully the truth will out. 

I see one person shot so far, I hope it's the last.

59 minutes ago, Loxstock92 said:

And yet they could have used it in court, yet didn’t. What does that tell you?

They have tried, I think only one judge has been willing to listen to any evidence in 62 cases. People say the cases have failed, they haven't failed, evidence would need to be shown to fail. Judges aren't willing to listen. 

13 minutes ago, andyjsg said:

I agree it’s quite left on here, I’m generally a Tory voter and don’t always agree with many on here, but what you are saying about media and data is rabid Parler stuff, just flat out deluded!!  I have looked at plenty of the data and dropped down a few holes and all it’s confirmed is America has lots of gullible foolish people. A country I spent most of my life being in awe of, is just a joke now due to the cult like support of Trump.

Nothing to do with a cult of Trump. I couldn't care less if Trump was in or not, but an honest a fair election is critical in all countries. Why are states denying judge orders and letting the machine be forensically tested? Hand then over, let Trump look an idiot and all is good. They are not, in Arizona, they aren't in Georgia.  

I don't belong to Parler, I get my info elsewhere. I have seen Parler, and just like Twitter it is very one sided.

22 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

Do you have a reference for this? I can only find references to donations to the local government who happen to be Democrats.

HERE Elections need to be fair across the board, by giving monies only to Democrats it's against the Act of 2002.

5 minutes ago, sidcow said:

You seem to be a firm supporter of the most clearly rabid madman to ever become the leader of a major nation since Adolf Hitler.  There is absolutely no point us continuing to have any kind of discussion because there is absolutely nothing I can say to you which you will agreed with and I know damn well there is nothing you say to me which will make the slightest sense to me so let's just leave it there eh and you can get on with living your fantasy life. 

No worries, I'll just start posting the truth as I see it, and you can do yours. Enjoy

Just now, DCJonah said:

Let me guess where you get yours. Switch off Facebook mate. 

That shows how little than you know. Zuckerberg gave $400,000,000 to the democrat's party to by pass constitutional law. He likes to block as much republican stuff as much as possible. Like two days before the runoff election in Georgia, FB took down the donation pages for the two republican runners, but they later announced it was a mistake. 

3 minutes ago, sne said:

I know every club has them but it still makes me sad that Villa does.

What someone who has a different opinion than you. Sorry, I didn't realize Villa Talk had become a leftist colony. 

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

 

 

I see, just like many from the democrat way of seeing things, they don't know how to have a discussion, or bring any facts to the table. 

7 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

I can't speak for Cubans, but the impression of Republicans I get is, that anything mildly  right of centre is socialism. 

From speaking to many republicans my opinion would be different. They just want to put Americans first just like the UK decided to do recently.