zak

12 hours ago, grantholtgolazo said:

It’s not that I don’t understand how finances play an outsized role in modern top flight football, it’s that I resent what it does to our perception of players. Digne should be applauded for his play this year, he’s been absolutely crucial & he is our best left back. Instead look in the summer transfer thread and we have numerous supporters again wanting him sold to balance the books. The focus on his wages is primary and his contributions take a back seat. He may well be sold, and if he is it will certainly be down to wages- because it won’t be based on his performances. He deserves our appreciation & respect.

I dont get this post

I think his play has been applauded by fans. look at this thread.

You talk about people suggesting he should be sold in the summer transfer thread which is exactly where wages and opportunity cost etc should be discussed. Contribution obviously also matters, but we are tight with funds and need to see where opportunities can be created so thats why he gets mentioned. There are conversations about selling all of our players in there, if it fits. I have seen alot about selling Watkins and Luiz for example. This conversations are about whats best for the club but does not diminish how fans have seen those players.

I think you can have an opinion on wages as just a fan as you are really talking about opportunity costs. With FPL etc you can only pay so much. 

If you exclude free players (tielemans and bono) as some of their transfer fee is baked into their wages he's basically one of our top earners with Diaby, Watkins Martinez and McGinn.

By all accounts he's on 3.5x Moreno.

Villa may be better off if those funds were allocated elsewhere. 

But anyway he's been great this season and I do not fault him as a player at all. 

17 minutes ago, villan95 said:

I realise I'm trying to have my cake and eat it here but if we do manage to hold 4th then I don't want 5th to get CL football

Lol, sure I get it. The issue is you would want to know we would have 4th and then see CL 5th slip away but it'll be the other way around 

1 hour ago, villan95 said:

Just seen opta give us a 70% chance of 4th

6 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Nice win for @zak too 

Thanks, what makes it better is I think it's the only bet I have made on football this season 

Hahah knew I should make the bet when everyone on here was so down 

1 hour ago, MSvillain said:

The new %s are in

 

This makes things better than they seem after last night, it's still  likely (just about)

Just now, jim said:

Quick text from the future King there.

Which one?

Maybe one of my favourite things of Villa this season is this guy's work 

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

40% chance plus 54% chance of 4th or 5th = 94%.
 

Is the other 6% chance of 6th or 3rd?

Sorry it's actually 39.8% of top 4 and then another 53.9% of 5th. So 93.7% for top 5. Here:

but they assume 5th is champs league which I dont

Just based on expected odds:

We have 39.8% chance of 4th.

We have 53.9% chance of 5th

Currently there is 84.4% chance Prem gets 5 CL spots 

85.3% chance of Champions League.

Things look good 

Now let's smash Lille to increase it more

19 minutes ago, duke313 said:

 

So I think if you take the odds of England getting extra spot (currently c.70%) Villa have a 77.5% chance of getting champs league next year

50 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Yes, was just going to make this point. These numbers have had England at everything from nearly 90% to not much more than 50% at different stages. Ultimately the numbers have no predictive power at all. We know what actually matters, which is whether English teams - including ourselves - progress. There's no comfort in the numbers if you don't think the teams will win. 

I don't think it's ever got less than 60% but as per my previous message it's baking everything in and telling you how likely it is and that will be based on the English teams progressing

1 hour ago, rodders129 said:

These opta probabilities can switch around very quickly, I wouldn’t get too secure about it tbh. It comes down to whether City and Arsenal progress 

I don't get what you are saying all that is baked into the odds. The odds change when circumstances change but currently there's a 70.6% chance. So if this situation happened 100 times, you'd expect Premier league to get the extra spot around 70 times

30 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I think two more wins for us seals 5th

We'll know the fate of the extra CL place after the next round of European fixtures too. Still on a knife edge if 5th is good enough, 60:40 to PL or something are the probabilities from opta

Our away form gives us a chance at Brighton and Palace at end of season

70.6% not 60% fyi

20 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Was looking at this and I reckon Man City will be changed to in between Sheffield United and Burnley and Chelsea will be between their games against Arsenal and Liverpool

Ben Crellin  has Man city game as "confirmed or very likely" between Burnley and Sheffield while he's had the Chelsea game "likely" to be between Liverpool v Burnley but also possible the week before

29 minutes ago, MSvillain said:

Updated view from Opta but seems to change by the minute:

thanks, was looking for this earlier

so currently we have a 77.7% chance of being in the champions league next year.

7 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

As I said earlier. Disaster draw for English. Probably not even possible to hand pick a worse draw. A better draw would have made it 90%+

We just needed any shred of **** luck. The entire year 2024 has been terrible so far. 

 

Not an ideal draw but it's still significantly more than likely that England get the extra spot and you keep talking like it's not likely anymore. If it happened 10 times, England would get the extra spot 7 and wouldn't 3. That's still very good.

Heap up, we got this

1 hour ago, colhint said:

Not sure what to make of this but this is not what it says on UEFA

https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/028a-1a386150ed4b-322dff667686-1000--2024-25-uefa-champions-league-who-is-in-the-european-perfo/

don't really know how they got from the 88.1% to 82.5% but here's what they say!

So deffo wasn't an ideal draw

3 minutes ago, jayEm said:

Arsenal - Bayern in the CL quarter finals -- massive game for the coefficient surely?

I mean it's currently 88.1% chance premier league, so Germany need way more than Bayern win

4 minutes ago, TreeVillan said:

Oh god United are getting 5th aren't they?

Statistically unlikely (12.8%), so yeah they probably are