I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17th13.0%18th16.3% median19th18.1%vvv lower quartile20th20.7%By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.
The table that came up most often in the simulation was:
1. Man City2. Chelsea3. Leicester City4. Spurs5. Everton6. Man United7. Swansea8. Arsenal9. West Brom10. West Ham11. Southampton12. Watford13. Crystal Palace14. Stoke15. Norwich16. Bournemouth17. Liverpool18. Villa19. Newcastle20. SunderlandRelegation chances
Sunderland 61.8%Newcastle 55.5%Villa 55.1%Liverpool 48.5%Bournemouth 33.6%Norwich 22.9%Stoke 11.1%Watford 3.0%Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4%West Ham 1.3%Swansea 1.0%West Brom 0.6%Arsenal 0.4%Man Utd 0.3%Everton 0.1%
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