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fightoffyour

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Everything posted by fightoffyour

  1. fightoffyour
    And it's Coefficient, Coefficient FC The most complicated team The world has ever seen And it's Coefficient, Coefficient FC
  2. fightoffyour
    Or Villa win both legs and then the Germans need two wins and a draw!
  3. fightoffyour
    And there it is: Villa lose but through, Liverpool win and out as expected, West Ham draw and out as about all the could be hoped => (1 + 2 + 1)/8 = 0.5 points Current Totals: England 17.375. Germany 17.642 But, Villa win one leg in the SFs, draw the other, go through and win the final => (2 + 1 + 1 + 2) = 0.75 points. Leverkusen draw both legs, ending the season technically unbeaten, but go out on penalties; Bayern draw one leg and lose the other; Dortmund lose both legs => (1 + 1 + 1)/7 = 0.429 points. Final Totals: England 18.125. Germany 18.071 CoFC goes marching on!
  4. fightoffyour
    Thing is, you just can't. You either take him as he is or you don't. Turn it down to 10 and you might lose one of those penalty saves. Looks like he might be suspended now, but that doesn't all happen and do we lose the tie? Can't hold it against him. He is what he is, and he does what he does - win.
  5. fightoffyour
    Speak for yourself, I moved to Krakow
  6. fightoffyour
    I haven't seen a replay of the quick free kick because, as they so often do, the cameras missed the live action in favour of showing a pointless replay or some close-ups of players, but I don't think there was anything wrong with the idea. I think direct free kick scoring probabilities are overrated by fans and players alike, so if there was a chance to surprise the opposition and get in one-on-one then go fir it. The corner, however, was absolute shite (even if, again, the chances of scoring from a corner are about 5%). Last kick of the game, last play so no real rush to take it quickly, goalkeeper is up (increasing the odds, I guess), and hit the first man. **** sake.
  7. fightoffyour
    It's 50/50 whether the first (now, only) leg is at home or away though. So you could get a tie at Old Trafford, draw, and go through on penalties then get a match at VP, whereas they could get a replay at The Scholars Ground or wherever (ok, it will be on TV, so still lucrative) and lose that. Of course you could get through one round on penalties and then get a non-glamour tie against a fellow non-league or a lower division side in the next round, which might not be as beneficial as the replay. Point is, though, that it's not cut and dry which option would work out better, and a lot (as it does with replays) relies upon luck of the draw and performance on the day, but it's certainly more likely that there will be upsets in one-off matches and the "lottery of penalties".
  8. fightoffyour
  9. fightoffyour
  10. fightoffyour
  11. fightoffyour
    I don't know how they calculated or assumed the probabilities but there's nothing wrong with the odds changing after more events have taken place. It was unlikely, by anyone's definition, for all of Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool (effectively, or this is, say, a 90-95% chance just after the first leg) to go out but now that's (almost) happened the current chances of 5th place going to England reflect that. Equally it's unlikely that all three German teams get hammered in their SF 1st legs, but if that happens and we're through tonight (more likely) then the odds will swing back in England's favour somewhat. There's a 25% chance that you'll toss a coin twice and get tails both times, but if the first result is tails then you're now at a 50% chance. That's not re-calculating the probabilities.
  12. fightoffyour
    And who knows, in a few years from now they might even get back up to the Championship.
  13. fightoffyour
    This I agree with But it's difficult/impossible to say what could earn them more money - a replay and then inevitably losing the return fixture is what happens probably 80% of the time when playing higher division opponents, whereas a penalty shoutout and into the next is obviously closer to 50% chance of a later-round tie, which might be more lucrative than a replay. I obviously don't know how valuable just another match is if it's a replay of a non-league team vs. a League Two team, say.
  14. fightoffyour
    Obviously the replays are lucrative for lower league teams but, on the other hand, this change means they're more likely to get through to the next round when getting a draw and then winning on penalties, leading to an even more lucrative (albeit less so than winning a replay) following tie. Thoughts?
  15. fightoffyour
    You could've said, "Lemmy explain".
  16. fightoffyour
    Sound like a few blokes who play for Stevenage or somewhere like that. Wrexham have really distorted the League One market already.
  17. fightoffyour
    I'll take your word for it that these are all real people
  18. fightoffyour
    Win Sunday. Draw tonight.
  19. fightoffyour
    Everyone else has given up so I'll be back with some calculations later
  20. fightoffyour
    Just 'cause I love CoFC, two posts above yours I hypothesise that 5th place is, in fact, not lost yet: Even with a West Ham loss tonight if you can lose a point for one of those German teams' results then the totals would be: England 18.250, Germany 18.214. Hardly an unrealistic set of circumstances, but as ever we'll know a lot more in about 12 hours. If the above plays out though we'll have to throw the ECL final to stop Spurs qualifying
  21. fightoffyour
    Cheers mate you just nearly wrote off my Macbook with a coffee propulsion jet
  22. fightoffyour
    ECL win -> EL win -> CL would be some run
  23. fightoffyour
    Villa draw tonight and go through, West Ham draw and go out, Liverpool win but go out => (1 + 1 + 1 + 2)/8 = 0.625 points, leaving England 0.017 points behind Germany. Villa get a win, a draw, and go through the SFs and, of course, win the final => (2 + 1 + 1 + 2)/8 = 0.75 points. The German teams all go out in the semis with one win plus a loss (Leverkusen), one win plus a loss (Bayern), and draw plus a loss (Dortmund) => (2 + 2 + 1)/7 = 0.714 points. Totals: England 18.375, Germany 18.357
  24. fightoffyour
  25. fightoffyour
    But we could win in the semi finals and none of the German teams get any more points. If we go through tomorrow then sadly, for the sake of the ongoing coefficient conversation, it actually won't be over.
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