TRO Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 ...midtable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oaks Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I'm running the full 100,000 run Monte Carlo right now, but as a preview, from the first 4000 runs (remember that, relative to the possible sample space, 4000 runs with 270 games left is covering many trillion trillion times more of the sample space than 100,000 runs with 350 games left):5th: 0.2%6th: 0.6%7th: 1.9%8th: 4.5%9th: 10.6%^^ Upper 25%10th: 16.9%11th: 23.2%== Median12th: 21.0%vv Lower 25%13th: 11.5%14th: 5.2%15th: 2.4%16th: 1.1%17th: 0.5%18th: 0.3%19th: 0.1% I never get these tables, they just it's most likely say we are more likely to finish where we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted November 17, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 17, 2013 That's part of the point.Even pretty good form doesn't move your position that much... last season didn't we have the sixth-best form for about half the season (from January onwards) and it meant that we picked up a net of two or three places (I'm too lazy to check the tables to be more specific).On the other hand, there's more than just "we'll most likely finish here"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 That's part of the point. Even pretty good form doesn't move your position that much... last season didn't we have the sixth-best form for about half the season (from January onwards) and it meant that we picked up a net of two or three places (I'm too lazy to check the tables to be more specific). On the other hand, there's more than just "we'll most likely finish here"... That's true for last season: a run of 23 points from 18 games only raised us from 17th on 1 Jan to 15th by the end of the season. But less so for the two preceding seasons. Under the nightmare that was Houllier, we rose from 15th (20 points from 19 games) on 1 Jan to 9th (48 points from 38). And under the further nightmare that was McLeish, we went in the other direction:9th on 1 Jan (23 pts from 19) to 16th end/season (38 from 38). So 2nd half of season form can make quite a dramatic change to league position. I think it depends in part on how other teams are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Briny-Ear .. Yeah .. But Take the first 4 games of January .. You'll find 21 points from 14 .. Which is quite impressive .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 ^^^I'm not sure I follow the maths in that post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted November 20, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 20, 2013 i think he's saying if you go from 4 games later, so feb onwards we got 21 points from 14 games. which is good form. if we can average 1.5 points a game from now we'll finish on 54/55 pts I think. we'd all agree we haven't seen our best form yet this season (chelsea maybe) and we nearly average that now. who knows but if we can match or better our form from the back end of last season we'll improve massively on last years league position. 50 points last year got you 8th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Oh, I see. Yes, that's right, We started February in 19th position, on 21 points from 25, so I suppose we did improve our position a little better from our absolute lowest point. Thinking back to how bleak things were last February has made me feel a bit depressed. I'm going for a lie-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshVilla Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Now that we're a bit further into the season, I reckon 12th is a pretty likely outcome, give or take a place either side, maybe. Anything higher would be a bonus but I think that would be a pretty fair progression from last season, although my acceptance with finishing in that position depends on who's above us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikantcpell Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 14th 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackpotForeigner Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 14th 15th I'd like to offer you a bet: If we finish lower than 11th I'll have "Ikantcpell's biggest fan" as my sig for a year. Higher than 12th and your sig reads "Crackpotforeigner's biggest fan" for a year. Do we have a deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 14th 15th I'd like to offer you a bet: If we finish lower than 11th I'll have "Ikantcpell's biggest fan" as my sig for a year. Higher than 12th and your sig reads "Crackpotforeigner's biggest fan" for a year. Do we have a deal? What are the sanctions if either of you renege on your side of the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted November 23, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 23, 2013 Ban for a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 (edited) Forced to walk round the VP pitch on matchday with a sign saying "I'm a word removed". Edited November 23, 2013 by Mantis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackpotForeigner Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Forced to walk round the VP pitch on matchday with a sign saying "I'm a word removed". That'd be a small price to pay for watching my second ever match at VP Anyway, IKC hasn't agreed to the bet yet. I think he's SCAAAAARED. Scaredy scaredy scaaaairdy, nurney nur, lah-di-day, weelah kapeeelah, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted November 25, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted November 25, 2013 (remember that, relative to the possible sample space, 4000 runs with 270 games left is covering many trillion trillion times more of the sample space than 100,000 runs with 350 games left) How could I forget? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 5, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 5, 2013 Leviiiii???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Leviiiii???? His simulation will only show that our most likely finishing position is where we are now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srsmithusa Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I took leviramseys trillion trillion divided by the attandance at our last 3 home matches, subtracted hairy hands accuracy rating and divided by the square root of Man city and come up with 9th place. Margin of error is +/- 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 5, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted December 5, 2013 I took leviramseys trillion trillion divided by the attandance at our last 3 home matches, subtracted hairy hands accuracy rating and divided by the square root of Man city and come up with 9th place. Margin of error is +/- 8 Wow! I think you may be onto something there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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