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Aston Villa Review: Episode 144 - Villa through in FA Cup and draw at the Hawthorns


ChrisVillan

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Aston Villa remain unbeaten since their devastating loss to Sunderland and appear to gradually putting together some kind of solid footing. The FA Cup Third Round replay against Wycombe Wanderers meant they had another two-game week to negotiate, and they did so in satisfactory fashion.

On Tuesday two late goals saw off the League Two side to set up a Fourth Round visit from Manchester City, and Villa faced West Bromwich Albion on Saturday in a Premier League clash that ended, somewhat predictably, in a goalless draw. In this week's show we focus on that game and look ahead to next weekend's FA Cup showdown.

Listen to the show:

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    • not sure if the game is broadcasted in the UK but if any of you is looking for a good legal high-quality streaming for tonight , the game is broadcasted for free on Lille's local TV : https://www.bfmtv.com/grand-lille/en-direct/ i suspect you might need a VPN set on "france"  though (not quite sure) very excited for tonight !   
    • One game at time.  Lille will have a big crowd and have to go for it. I'm no tactician, but Unai will have a plan. Sod the performance/result, just get through.  Dougie needs a big big performance
    • No you aren't understanding them. Of course the probabilities have a massive slide when an unexpected outcome occurs. If you have a 60% chance to win a game and you lose it. 60% of the previous calculation is written off. These calculations will basically be like running 10k simulations of the season, then saying how many times X happens. 1st the quality of teams obviously isn't 100% accurate, 2jd it's very hard to factor in matchups for various teams in football especially, 3rd its hard to evaluate a coaches ability to gameplan for an individual opponent.  All these factors lead to the evaluation of quality being off a little bit before the simulation and then that compounds massively when you sre simulating a dose teams. 
    • Absolutely, he’d be a very useful player to have by all accounts. Can play LB, RB, DM, LM, RM and AM.
    • I don't know how they calculated or assumed the probabilities but there's nothing wrong with the odds changing after more events have taken place. It was unlikely, by anyone's definition, for all of Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool (effectively, or this is, say, a 90-95% chance just after the first leg) to go out but now that's (almost) happened the current chances of 5th place going to England reflect that. Equally it's unlikely that all three German teams get hammered in their SF 1st legs, but if that happens and we're through tonight (more likely) then the odds will swing back in England's favour somewhat. There's a 25% chance that you'll toss a coin twice and tails both times, but if the first result is tails then you're at 50% chance. That's not re-calculating the probabilities.
    • 🤞🤞🤞early villa goal, early villa goal, early villa goal🤞🤞🤞  
    • Talkshite 2 have got it - if you can stand the drivel
    • Oops, someone needs to turn their sarcasm detector on
    • Yes I know, my point is though, that playing him at RB would hardly be a bad decision unlike almost everything from Bruce's tenure. 



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