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Football picks

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Picks for 26 August, 2013

YTD: 13-19, -4.98 units (-1.64%) Chelsea to win +200: 12 units Chelsea DNB +125: 12 units Catania to win +700: 5 units Rostov to win +350: 16 units Rostov +1 -145: risk 20 units to win 13.79
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Picks for 1 November

YTD: 71-102, -169.43 units (-10.63%) PSG -2 +120: 10 units NAC Breda to win +175: 8 units NAC Breda DNB +110: 15 units Espanyol +2.5 -105: risk 11 units to win 10.47
leviramsey

leviramsey

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 16)

A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster? Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved. 16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1%
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Picks for 10 November

YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%) Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26 NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83 Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40 Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95 Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12 Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 14)

Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing. The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact: Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly
leviramsey

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Picks for 9 November

YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%) Reims to win +319: 5 units Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79 Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 15)

Despite both Newcastle and Bournemouth notching wins, our chances of staying up managed to slightly improve. 16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.5% +0.1%18th 1.5% +0.2%19th 8.2% +2.1%20th 89.7% -2.4%Villa: 99.4% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 78.9% (+10.5%) Bournemouth: 41.4% (-24.7%) Swansea: 36.0% (+22.3%) Newcastle: 22.9% (-25.7%) Norwich: 18.4% (+15.1%) Chelsea: 1.5% (+0.5%), West Brom: 1.5% (+1.4%)
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Picks for 29 October

YTD: 69-100, -171.63 units (-11.06%) Arsenal to win +222: 7 units Arsenal DNB +130: 13 units Nantes to win -142: risk 12 units to win 8.45 Nantes -1 +125: 11 units
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Picks for 19 October

YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%) Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71 Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40 WBA DNB +120: 6 units Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18 Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
leviramsey

leviramsey

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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 12)

Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some
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Picks for 8 November

YTD: 73-104, -169.96 units (-10.35%) Malaga/Granada DRAW +225: 7 units Akhisar Belediye/Eskisehirspor DRAW +260: 13 units
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Picks for 25 October

YTD: 64-94, -174.97 units (-12.47%) Nantes DNB -105: risk 10 units to win 9.52 Heerenveen to win +115: 10 units Heerenveen DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66
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Picks for 26 October

YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%) West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14 Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38 Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70 Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
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Monte Carlo simulation (Round 13)

I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable... The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us. The bad: It definitely didn't help us. Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat. 17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged) Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%) Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%) Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%) 
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Picks for 28 October

YTD: 67-100, -214.53 units (-14.06%) Vitoria Guimaraes to win +225: 10 units Vitoria Guimaraes DNB +120: 17 units
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Picks for 19 September

YTD: 37-62, -173.50 units (-19.68%) St. Gallen to win +155: 5 units St. Gallen DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92 Esbjerg +1 +105: 5 units Slovan Liberec +0.5 +107: 7 units Rijeka +0.5 +117: 7 units Sheriff Tiraspol DNB +105: 7 units Tromso +2.5 -105: risk 8 units to win 7.61 Shakhter Karagandy +1.5 -130: risk 6 units to win 4.61
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Picks for 20 September

YTD: 42-64, -156.48 units (-16.72%) Arouca to win +480: 8 units Akhisar Belediye to win +130: 16 units Akhisar Belediye DNB -150: risk 24 units to win 16 units
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Picks for 13 September, 2013

YTD: 25-50, -165.24 units (-24.82%) Returning from the international break... Hertha Berlin to win +130: 8 units Hertha Berlin DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66 Antalyaspor +1 +103: 11 units
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Picks for 17 September

YTD: 36-54, -118.00 units (-14.59%) Shakhtar Donetsk to win +250: 5 units Olympiacos to win +275: 6 units Olympiacos +0.5 -135: risk 9 units to win 6.66 CSKA Moscow +2 -105: risk 12 units to win 11.42 Viktoria Plzen to win +367: 5 units
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Picks for 15 September

YTD: 33-53, -133.10 units (-17.34%) Kalloni to win +225: 6 units Hellas Verona to win +110: 6 units Hellas Verona DNB -180: risk 9 units to win 5.00 Rubin Kazan DNB -195: risk 10 units to win 5.12 Granada DNB -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
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Picks for 26 September

YTD: 56-77, -113.71 units (-9.61%) Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42 Betis to win +295: 7 units Betis DNB +189: 11 units Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
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Picks for 18 September

YTD: 37-58, -137.50 units (-16.26%) Steaua Bucharest +1 +100: 9 units Zenit St. Petersburg +1.5 -130: 9 units Celtic +1 -105: risk 9 units to win 8.57 Ajax +2.5 +100: 8 units It's a dog day afternoon for western hemisphere Champions League bettors...
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Picks for 28 September

YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%) Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58 Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36 Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33 Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
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Picks for 29 September

YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%) Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54 Torino +1 +100: 6 units Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22 Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
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Picks for 31 August, 2013

YTD: 15-34, -127.44 units (-27.47%) Hull +2 +200: 10 units Norwich DNB +110: 8 units Evian DNB +110: 5 units Guingamp +2 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66 Hannover DNB +110: 5 units Hertha Berlin to win +280: 7 units Added picks for later will be in the comments...
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