YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%)
Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units
Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units
Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
Torino +1 +100: 6 units
Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22
Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up. I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17t
YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)
Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%)
Reims to win +319: 5 units
Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units
Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79
Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units
Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
YTD: 15-34, -127.44 units (-27.47%)
Hull +2 +200: 10 units
Norwich DNB +110: 8 units
Evian DNB +110: 5 units
Guingamp +2 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
Hannover DNB +110: 5 units
Hertha Berlin to win +280: 7 units
Added picks for later will be in the comments...
YTD: 18-42, -160.64 units (-28.95%)
Liverpool to win +140: 6 units
Liverpool DNB -125: risk 11 units to win 8.80
Roda +1 +130: 7 units
Nacional to win +145: 6 units
Nacional DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
Rioa Ave DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
YTD: 26-52, -174.91 units (-25.06%)
Arsenal to win -145: risk 8 units to win 5.51
Arsenal -1 +127: 7 units
Chelsea DNB -150: risk 7 units to win 4.66
Hannover +2.5 +110: 8 units
Real Sociedad DNB -150: risk 8 units to win 5.33
YTD: 44-65, -127.68 units (-12.98%)
Liverpool to win -170: risk 6 units to win 3.52
Liverpool -1 +110: 6 units
Hannover to win +155: 7 units
Hannover DNB -115: risk 11 units to win 9.56
Bayern Munich to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
Bayern Munich -1 -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
Udinese DNB -105: risk 5 units to win 4.76
Maritimo DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Barcelona -2 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34
YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%)
Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58
Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36
Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%)
West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14
Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38
Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70
Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%)
Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%)
Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%)
Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%)
Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%)
West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%)
Chelsea: 1.1%
Since I didn't want the football betting thread I started in "Other Football" to turn into a clone of Mister_Master's Portuguese league thread (i.e. a logn string of posts by me), I figured I'd move these posts to my blog here.
I do post these picks on Google+, also.
The picks in the linked thread went 7-12, +3.67 units (+2.03% of risk)
Being that I'm from North America, I generally use North American notation, most notably in the form of moneyline pricing. Conversion of positive moneyl
YTD: 71-102, -169.43 units (-10.63%)
PSG -2 +120: 10 units
NAC Breda to win +175: 8 units
NAC Breda DNB +110: 15 units
Espanyol +2.5 -105: risk 11 units to win 10.47
YTD: 69-100, -171.63 units (-11.06%)
Arsenal to win +222: 7 units
Arsenal DNB +130: 13 units
Nantes to win -142: risk 12 units to win 8.45
Nantes -1 +125: 11 units
YTD: 64-94, -174.97 units (-12.47%)
Nantes DNB -105: risk 10 units to win 9.52
Heerenveen to win +115: 10 units
Heerenveen DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66
YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%)
Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
WBA DNB +120: 6 units
Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
YTD: 57-80, -134.29 units (-10.99%)
Vitoria Guimaraes +2 -145: risk 14 units to win 9.65
Malaga DNB -130: risk 11 units to win 8.46
Akhisar Belediye to win +428: 6 units
YTD: 23-47, -158.96 units (-25.28%)
Atromitos to win -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
Atromitos -1 +105: 6 units
Platanias to win +215: 6 units
Platanias DNB +130: 9 units
Estoril to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
Estoril -1 +100: 5 units
YTD: 14-28, -97.44 units (-23.32%)
PSV to win +425: 6 units
PSV +1 -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Shakhter Karagandy to win +1000: 6 units
Shakhter Karagandy +2 -145: risk 7 units to win 4.82
Lyon DNB +190: 7 units
YTD: 13-23, -57.98 units (-15.72%)
Fenerbahce to win +650: 8 units
Fenerbahce +1.5 -135: risk 10 units to win 7.40
Ludogorets to win +470: 9 units
Ludogorets +1 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
Dinamo Zagreb DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
PAOK DNB +175: 9 units
Betting on a number of sides with control of the ties to not put in more than a cursory effort...
YTD: 13-19, -4.98 units (-1.64%)
Chelsea to win +200: 12 units
Chelsea DNB +125: 12 units
Catania to win +700: 5 units
Rostov to win +350: 16 units
Rostov +1 -145: risk 20 units to win 13.79
Damn, he's way too young to be afflicted with dementia. What a tragedy. It's got to be particularly heartbreaking for his family and close friends. Life is just a **** dice roll.
Just saw the Belgium highlights. Looked like a good game. I quite like those matte black England shirts with the retro numbers and no names. The little swath of color by the ribs seems pointless though.
Good to see Tielemans bag a brace even if the goals came off bad goalkeeping and defending. Hopefully it helps him score more goals for Villa.
Bowen is a pleasure to watch. I really wish we'd beaten West Ham to the punch and put him in proper claret and blue.
Bellingham is the man. We should sign him when his contract is up Absolute force of nature.
If Snoutgate actually drops Ollie for the Euros will Villa fans go to the games?
The differences between selling routine consumer items that football fans want to purchase as part of a match-going experience on the one hand, and taking over a long-term commitment to maintaining a listed building located on the opposite side of a park from the ground and which serves no footballing purpose and is of no interest to match-day crowds on the other seem too obvious to have to expound at length.
Too young to remember him in his pomp, but my Dad would regularly tell me about Sid, unbelievable footballer and by the sounds of it, a great man also. Wishing him and his family the best at a horrible time for them all.
Played football with his son when I was younger, and him and my old man got quite friendly (which the old man loved, as you can imagine!) Terrible news - too young to have seen him play for us, but by all accounts a fantastic player and a lovely man
I heard this news nearly two weeks ago from a good friend of mine who played with Sid🥲. I got to know Sid quite well through my mate. Best memory was when I was at a barbecue at Kenny Swain’s place. Sid was on great form with some brilliant stories from his career! I won’t repeat them on here except one. Saunders used to put his arm around Sid and my mate on Monday mornings and ask if they were ok! Wasn’t to check if they were ok but to see if he could smell alcohol on their breath🤣🤣🤣. Sid was a class act and I’ll never forget or forgive that dirty animal that done his leg😡😡😡. Sid and McMahon would have been some pairing that season!