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Football picks

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Picks for 29 September

YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%) Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54 Torino +1 +100: 6 units Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22 Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units

leviramsey

leviramsey

Monte Carlo simulation (Round 6)

For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up. I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments. 5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17t

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 10 November

YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%) Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26 NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83 Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40 Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95 Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12 Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units

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leviramsey

Picks for 9 November

YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%) Reims to win +319: 5 units Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79 Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 31 August, 2013

YTD: 15-34, -127.44 units (-27.47%) Hull +2 +200: 10 units Norwich DNB +110: 8 units Evian DNB +110: 5 units Guingamp +2 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66 Hannover DNB +110: 5 units Hertha Berlin to win +280: 7 units Added picks for later will be in the comments...

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leviramsey

Picks for 1 September, 2013

YTD: 18-42, -160.64 units (-28.95%) Liverpool to win +140: 6 units Liverpool DNB -125: risk 11 units to win 8.80 Roda +1 +130: 7 units Nacional to win +145: 6 units Nacional DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92 Rioa Ave DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 14 September

YTD: 26-52, -174.91 units (-25.06%) Arsenal to win -145: risk 8 units to win 5.51 Arsenal -1 +127: 7 units Chelsea DNB -150: risk 7 units to win 4.66 Hannover +2.5 +110: 8 units Real Sociedad DNB -150: risk 8 units to win 5.33

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 21 September

YTD: 44-65, -127.68 units (-12.98%) Liverpool to win -170: risk 6 units to win 3.52 Liverpool -1 +110: 6 units Hannover to win +155: 7 units Hannover DNB -115: risk 11 units to win 9.56 Bayern Munich to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76 Bayern Munich -1 -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54 Udinese DNB -105: risk 5 units to win 4.76 Maritimo DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18 Barcelona -2 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 28 September

YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%) Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58 Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36 Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60 Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84 PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33 Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 26 October

YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%) West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14 Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66 Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38 Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70 Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units

leviramsey

leviramsey

Monte Carlo simulation (Round 16)

A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster? Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved. 16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1%

leviramsey

leviramsey

Introduction & Picks for 25 August, 2013

Since I didn't want the football betting thread I started in "Other Football" to turn into a clone of Mister_Master's Portuguese league thread (i.e. a logn string of posts by me), I figured I'd move these posts to my blog here. I do post these picks on Google+, also. The picks in the linked thread went 7-12, +3.67 units (+2.03% of risk) Being that I'm from North America, I generally use North American notation, most notably in the form of moneyline pricing. Conversion of positive moneyl

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leviramsey

Picks for 8 November

YTD: 73-104, -169.96 units (-10.35%) Malaga/Granada DRAW +225: 7 units Akhisar Belediye/Eskisehirspor DRAW +260: 13 units

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leviramsey

Picks for 1 November

YTD: 71-102, -169.43 units (-10.63%) PSG -2 +120: 10 units NAC Breda to win +175: 8 units NAC Breda DNB +110: 15 units Espanyol +2.5 -105: risk 11 units to win 10.47

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leviramsey

Picks for 29 October

YTD: 69-100, -171.63 units (-11.06%) Arsenal to win +222: 7 units Arsenal DNB +130: 13 units Nantes to win -142: risk 12 units to win 8.45 Nantes -1 +125: 11 units

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 28 October

YTD: 67-100, -214.53 units (-14.06%) Vitoria Guimaraes to win +225: 10 units Vitoria Guimaraes DNB +120: 17 units

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 25 October

YTD: 64-94, -174.97 units (-12.47%) Nantes DNB -105: risk 10 units to win 9.52 Heerenveen to win +115: 10 units Heerenveen DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 19 October

YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%) Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71 Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40 WBA DNB +120: 6 units Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18 Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 27 September

YTD: 57-80, -134.29 units (-10.99%) Vitoria Guimaraes +2 -145: risk 14 units to win 9.65 Malaga DNB -130: risk 11 units to win 8.46 Akhisar Belediye to win +428: 6 units

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 2 September, 2013

YTD: 23-47, -158.96 units (-25.28%) Atromitos to win -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42 Atromitos -1 +105: 6 units Platanias to win +215: 6 units Platanias DNB +130: 9 units Estoril to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76 Estoril -1 +100: 5 units

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leviramsey

Picks for 28 August, 2013

YTD: 14-28, -97.44 units (-23.32%) PSV to win +425: 6 units PSV +1 -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18 Shakhter Karagandy to win +1000: 6 units Shakhter Karagandy +2 -145: risk 7 units to win 4.82 Lyon DNB +190: 7 units

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leviramsey

Picks for 27 August, 2013

YTD: 13-23, -57.98 units (-15.72%) Fenerbahce to win +650: 8 units Fenerbahce +1.5 -135: risk 10 units to win 7.40 Ludogorets to win +470: 9 units Ludogorets +1 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27 Dinamo Zagreb DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54 PAOK DNB +175: 9 units Betting on a number of sides with control of the ties to not put in more than a cursory effort...

leviramsey

leviramsey

Picks for 26 August, 2013

YTD: 13-19, -4.98 units (-1.64%) Chelsea to win +200: 12 units Chelsea DNB +125: 12 units Catania to win +700: 5 units Rostov to win +350: 16 units Rostov +1 -145: risk 20 units to win 13.79

leviramsey

leviramsey



  • Posts

    • That's a very nice tribute from Stan. 
    • I won't be for this very reason. 
    • I thought we could start Summer 2025 for a two year build and one year use before the Euros?
    • Damn, he's way too young to be afflicted with dementia. What a tragedy. It's got to be particularly heartbreaking for his family and close friends. Life is just a **** dice roll. 
    • Just saw the Belgium highlights. Looked like a good game. I quite like those matte black England shirts with the retro numbers and no names. The little swath of color by the ribs seems pointless though.  Good to see Tielemans bag a brace even if the goals came off bad goalkeeping and defending. Hopefully it helps him score more goals for Villa. Bowen is a pleasure to watch. I really wish we'd beaten West Ham to the punch and put him in proper claret and blue. Bellingham is the man. We should sign him when his contract is up   Absolute force of nature.  If Snoutgate actually drops Ollie for the Euros will Villa fans go to the games?  
    • The differences between selling routine consumer items that football fans want to purchase as part of a match-going experience on the one hand, and taking over a long-term commitment to maintaining a listed building located on the opposite side of a park from the ground and which serves no footballing purpose and is of no interest to match-day crowds on the other seem too obvious to have to expound at length. 
    • Too young to remember him in his pomp, but my Dad would regularly tell me about Sid, unbelievable footballer and by the sounds of it, a great man also. Wishing him and his family the best at a horrible time for them all. 
    • Played football with his son when I was younger, and him and my old man got quite friendly (which the old man loved, as you can imagine!) Terrible news - too young to have seen him play for us, but by all accounts a fantastic player and a lovely man
    • I heard this news nearly two weeks ago from a good friend of mine who played with Sid🥲. I got to know Sid quite well through my mate.  Best memory was when I was at a barbecue at Kenny Swain’s place.  Sid was on great form with some brilliant stories from his career!  I won’t repeat them on here except one.  Saunders used to put his arm around Sid and my mate on Monday mornings and ask if they were ok!  Wasn’t to check if they were ok but to see if he could smell alcohol on their breath🤣🤣🤣.  Sid was a class act and I’ll never forget or forgive that dirty animal that done his leg😡😡😡. Sid and McMahon would have been some pairing that season!



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