A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%)
Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%)
Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%)
Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%)
Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%)
West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%)
Chelsea: 1.1%
Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.
The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:
Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly
I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable...
The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.
The bad: It definitely didn't help us.
Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.
17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged)
Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%)
Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%)
Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%)
Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some
These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter.
16th 0.1% -0.3%17th 0.3% -0.9%18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.8% -0.6%20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.6% (+1.3%)
Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%)
The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon.
15th 0.1% -0.3%16th 0.4% -0.8%17th 1.2% -2.3%18th 3.5% -8.6%19th 11.4% -18.6%20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 98.3%
Sunderland: 58.6%
Bournemouth: 53.9%
Newcastle: 41.5%
Norwich: 25.7%
Liverpool: 13.7%
Watford: 3.5%
WBA: 3.0%
Chelsea: 1.1%
Everton: 0.4%
Swansea: 0.2%
Stoke: 0.1%
It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it? 9th0.1%10th0.1%11th0.3%12th0.5%13th1.0%14th1.6%15th2.8%16th5.0%17th8.9%^^^ upper quartile18th16.2%19th27.2%median, maximum likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th36.3%I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often. Relegation chances: Sunderland: 84.0% Vill
For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up. I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17t
YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)
Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
YTD: 73-106, -189.96 units (-11.43%)
Reims to win +319: 5 units
Montpellier DNB +111: 6 units
Borussia M'gladbach to win -158: risk 6 units to win 3.79
Borussia M'gladbach -1 +112: 6 units
Real Sociedad +2 -101: risk 6 units to win 5.94
YTD: 71-102, -169.43 units (-10.63%)
PSG -2 +120: 10 units
NAC Breda to win +175: 8 units
NAC Breda DNB +110: 15 units
Espanyol +2.5 -105: risk 11 units to win 10.47
YTD: 69-100, -171.63 units (-11.06%)
Arsenal to win +222: 7 units
Arsenal DNB +130: 13 units
Nantes to win -142: risk 12 units to win 8.45
Nantes -1 +125: 11 units
YTD: 64-97, -207.97 units (-14.49%)
West Brom +1.5 -140: risk 10 units to win 7.14
Reims +1 -120: risk 8 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen to win -180: risk 12 units to win 6.66
Bayer Leverkusen -1 -105: risk 13 units to win 12.38
Twente -1 -135: risk 5 units to win 3.70
Antalyaspor DNB +140: 11 units
YTD: 64-94, -174.97 units (-12.47%)
Nantes DNB -105: risk 10 units to win 9.52
Heerenveen to win +115: 10 units
Heerenveen DNB -150: risk 13 units to win 8.66
YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%)
Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
WBA DNB +120: 6 units
Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
YTD: 61-87, -149.72 units (-11.42%)
Panaitolikos to win +265: 5 units
Heerenveen to win -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Heerenveen -1 +135: 6 units
Udinese DNB -110: risk 5 units to win 4.54
Torino +1 +100: 6 units
Lazio DNB -225: risk 5 units to win 2.22
Amkar Perm DNB +115: 9 units
YTD: 58-81, -130.64 units (-10.43%)
Marseille DNB -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
Man City to win -195: risk 7 units to win 3.58
Man City -1 -110: risk 7 units to win 6.36
Freiburg +2 -125: risk 7 units to win 5.60
Napoli to win -130: risk 5 units to win 3.84
PSV DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
Maritimo DNB -175: risk 5 units to win 2.85
YTD: 57-80, -134.29 units (-10.99%)
Vitoria Guimaraes +2 -145: risk 14 units to win 9.65
Malaga DNB -130: risk 11 units to win 8.46
Akhisar Belediye to win +428: 6 units
YTD: 56-77, -113.71 units (-9.61%)
Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
Betis to win +295: 7 units
Betis DNB +189: 11 units
Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units
Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
Fans are consumers for a product, the product is football.
That’s what we are if we strip away the culture of being a football fan.
And, that’s what we are if we strip away the culture of being a Villa Fan.
It’s jarring to be thought of just customers consuming a product. Yet, that what we doing on the most basic level. And it’s good to know that there’s people in the executive seats that know that. However, I hope they know and feel the culture here. And also know how to feed it.
Better the culture, better the “customer”
They looked at the underwhelming loans, being unable to influence games and the lack of output in goals and assists. Unai looked at something else..How he could fit into our system. They saw him when they got the opposition scouting report. And i guess Unai fell in love immediately.
God. Stupid Americans eh... unable to articulate a single sentence and not knowing what is going on outside of their own country. ....
Btw. Genius idea to connect vegas and LA by rail. 90 percent of those 50 million trips a year would be done hungover. Now u just jump on a train.
In true Unai fashion he said - "but not today, not so good" (was after the Brentford game 🤣) - followed it up by saying "But we keep going" - and he was true to his word!
I didn't ask him for a photo, it was late (10-30ish) and he looked like he was trying to get away. He was in front of me, I was going to leave it until my wife shouted 'Unai' 🤣
This is why it would be absolutely scandalous if we didn't finish in the top 4. Thankfully I'm confident we will.
If only we could combine that moment of magic required to win games under Stevie G together with the dogged style of UE, what a team that would be
They looked at the underwhelming loans, being unable to influence games and the lack of output in goals and assists. Unai looked at something else..How he could fit into our system. They saw him when they got the opposition scouting report. And i guess Unai fell in love immediately.
Personally I think he would have as much of a say in the matter as Watkins has.
