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maqroll

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I disagree - I think if Bernie wins the popular vote from the primaries / caucuses, the super delegates will fall in line.  Otherwise they risk splitting the voter base with either losses to an independent or a low turn-out from the Sanders followers. 

If the turn out is low, the GOP could well win - even with a nutcase like Cruz or Trump running, which given the situation with potential Supreme Court appointees would be a nightmare for the Democrats.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Trump won the Nevada primary tonight. There is now only a very slim chance that he won't become the Republican candidate for the US Presidency, (unless something completely unprecedented were to happen.)

Boy oh boy....... It is entirely possible that we could have Trump and Boris Johnson leading the Western world in 2017........

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2 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

Boy oh boy....... It is entirely possible that we could have Trump and Boris Johnson leading the Western world in 2017........

A truely horrific thought. 

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From what I've read, both Clinton & Sanders poll well against Trump. In the case of Trump winning the nomination, he would have to do a hell of a lot to make the middle and undecideds turn to him instead of either Democrat. However, the sheer numbers of previously unregistered or occasional voters that are turning up to vote for him (and Sanders to some degree) makes it hard to predict what impact he will have in a national vote. Frankly, I wouldn't put it past the US to elect him, but I'm hopeful that they won't.

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^

Another example of why it is hard to predict Trump's 'ceiling'. Take the religious, who seem OK with him because he's seen as a defender of the faith in the most general sense, which explains why the apparently fundamentalist Cruz is struggling to beat Trump among the demographics he would otherwise expect to. It isn't so much about policy as it is about being a defender of something perceived to be under attack by secular or non-Christian forces. That Trump is as religious as a dead cat is neither here nor there, what matters is the image he is selling.

I'm not sure why Hispanics vote for him, though. That truly is a head-scratching development.

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5 hours ago, lapal_fan said:

Idiocracy is become real life.

Viewing this election from inside the US is like being inside some dystopian nightmare future. This reminds me of Back to the Future II when Biff gets hold of the sports almanac and the whole world goes to shit. Trump even looks like Biff!

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4 hours ago, coda said:

He got 46% of the Hispanic vote. 

It's 46% of the 9% of Hispanics who voted in the republican contest in Nevada .... The democrat leadership vote got around 20% Hispanic voters by comparison  ...

it's still surprising I guess but not a ringing endorsement of Trump by the Hispanic community 

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17 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

It's 46% of the 9% of Hispanics who voted in the republican contest in Nevada .... The democrat leadership vote got around 20% Hispanic voters by comparison  ...

it's still surprising I guess but not a ringing endorsement of Trump by the Hispanic community 

Given that it's a number higher than zero, it's remarkable.

I think this is a good time to mention my two favourite states are Colorado and Wyoming. I know very little about them, but I have every respect for the people that set or negotiated their state borders.

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10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

my two favourite states are Colorado and Wyoming. I know very little about them, but I have every respect for the people that set or negotiated their state borders.

I heard they were squares.

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2 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

It's 46% of the 9% of Hispanics who voted in the republican contest in Nevada .... The democrat leadership vote got around 20% Hispanic voters by comparison  ...

it's still surprising I guess but not a ringing endorsement of Trump by the Hispanic community 

What Tony said.

It's also worth pointing out at this point that 'not all Hispanics are Mexicans'. 

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