The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"

[AVFC_Hitz]

Nope.

How are things on the street in Turkey at the moment? Seems the PKK and the security forces are really getting stuck into each other. Do you have any Kurdish mates with a view on where this is going? 

It seems you missed the picture before I edited. It's a complete shitstorm here. My girlfriend is Kurdish Alevi and she's uneasy about getting into conversations about for fear of someone overhearing us. The white Turks are out in force spreading their Kemalist racism on Twitter whilst Erdoğan is doing his best by pandering to them and blowing up Kurdish villages. What happened in Cizre bordered on a war crime.

Demirtaş is getting destroyed by the press and yet still comes out with his head held high. I get a sad feeling he won't be around too long.

Turkey is in a real mess...economically and just the through the vast amount of diabolical treatment of Kurds. The scary thing is even the most educated people will froth at the mouth at the mention of Kurds.

Of course Russia is helping bury some of the news from the south east.

[chrisp65]

I guess the plans to get Turkey into the EU are slipping a little.

David Cameron was still very much for it last Christmas, be interesting to ask him and Theresa May again.

[choffer]

Perfect conditions for airstrikes on Syria, says weather forecaster on Russian TV

State TV broadcasts weather report that analyses flying conditions for Russia’s fighter jets and shows aerial footage of recent bombing raids

It’s warm and sunny in Syria – and conditions are perfect for flying fighter jets and launching airstrikes, according to a weather report broadcast on Russian state television. 

“Russian aerospace forces are continuing their operation in Syria. Experts say the timing for it was chosen very well in terms of weather,” said the forecaster in a segment aired on Rossiya 24 on Sunday, standing in front of a screen showing a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jet with the words “flying weather”. 

The weather forecast then jumped to aerial footage released by the defence ministry showing targets in the Syrian countryside being peppered by Russian bombs as a crosshair moves over them.......................

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/perfect-weather-for-airstrikes-russian-tv-forecast-sets-sights-on-syria

Edited October 8, 2015 by limpid
fixed embed

[Awol]

Nope.

 

How are things on the street in Turkey at the moment? Seems the PKK and the security forces are really getting stuck into each other. Do you have any Kurdish mates with a view on where this is going? 

 

 

 

It seems you missed the picture before I edited. It's a complete shitstorm here. My girlfriend is Kurdish Alevi and she's uneasy about getting into conversations about for fear of someone overhearing us. The white Turks are out in force spreading their Kemalist racism on Twitter whilst Erdoğan is doing his best by pandering to them and blowing up Kurdish villages. What happened in Cizre bordered on a war crime.

 

Demirtaş is getting destroyed by the press and yet still comes out with his head held high. I get a sad feeling he won't be around too long.

 

Turkey is in a real mess...economically and just the through the vast amount of diabolical treatment of Kurds. The scary thing is even the most educated people will froth at the mouth at the mention of Kurds.

 

Of course Russia is helping bury some of the news from the south east.

 

 

Yes I had missed your earlier post, but thanks for the above. Looks like the Islamist Erdogan has got the war he wanted with the Kurds, be they in Syria, Iraq or Turkey. If the security forces go full retard at them on the domestic front you would be expecting lots more retaliatory attacks by PKK in Istanbul, yes?  

No doubt Erdogan is upset at the Russians for limiting his freedom of action in Syria, but worst case he can continue leveraging Turkey's covert support for ISIS (and overt support for Al Qaeda) to hit the Kurds from the south while his air force bombs them from the north.  No doubt the US will drop the Kurds like a bad habit when things get messy, despite being its only effective ally for fighting IS on the ground in Syria and Iraq.

What a lovely war.

 

[Rugeley Villa]

@AWOL, how do you think the russians will do if 150.000 of them march on to raqqa.

[Rugeley Villa]

for the first time in this conflict i actually feel like isis are going to get whats coming to them with russia and iran getting ready to wipe them out along with support from the rest of the countries. easier said than done though i think.

[Xann]

Jon Snow talks Saudi with Bestial Dave.

[Awol]

@AWOL, how do you think the russians will do if 150.000 of them march on to raqqa.

First problem, geography.  Deploying 150,000 men and their equipment to conduct expeditionary warfare is a huge logistical undertaking, the only country currently able to move and then actually sustain/supply that volume of men and materiel is the United States.  Add to that the huge cost involved - "the sinews of war are infinite money" -  and you can be sure Russia will not be deploying anything like the numbers mentioned.  

Russia's focus is on securing Assad's power base which is the population centres in the west of Syria. Once that is done they may turn towards IS and Raqqa but that's by no means a given, imo.

[Chindie]

It's also unlikely to make the IS problem go away irrespective of what any nation is prepared to do against them. Ideas are bullet proof, and IS is founded on ideas rather a lot of people like. It's impossible to wipe out.

If you do manage to take the territory back and decimate IS, which given that they're basically a guerrilla force is easier said than done as the Russians and the Yanks know all too well, you end up back where we were 3 years ago with a vast territory with noone capable of administering to it. So you have another vacuum creating another crisis waiting to happen.

This whole thing is a several generation problem to solve and nobody thinks like that.

[Awol]

In addition to Chindie's comments, a few days ago dozens of Saudi clerics signed a letter calling on the faithful to offer all available support to fight a Jihad against the Russian and Iranian infidels in Syria.

That openly aligns them (and by extension the Saudi regime because the religious establishment and ruling Al Sauds are inseparable) with Al Qaeda and of course, Islamic State. 

Meanwhile IS launched 4 suicide attacks yesterday against the Saudi coalition forces and their client Yemeni "Government" in Aden. Saudi is theoretically in Yemen to fight Shia rebels and has utterly ignored the growth of AQ and IS that has occurred in the security vacuum they created - the rebels were the only people fighting AQAP in Yemen.

It's so messed up that trying to predict how it develops from here is tricky indeed, but the wheels are starting to coming off the Middle East and things could go very wrong, very quickly.

 

[lapal_fan]

It seems to me like no one really knows who they're meant to be fighting against?

That's a pretty dangerous situation in itself.  And whilst Russia and the U.S are on the sidelines watching each other very closely, depending on the actions of the guys in the middle (Syria, IS, Yemen, Saudi, Turkey) then you could have a huge situation of U.S clashing heads with the Russians.

Not good.

[Rugeley Villa]

i think its fair to say IS will never go away fully.

[Chindie]

IS won't last forever.

Radical Islam will be around for the foreseeable.

IS is a construction of a band of idiots and zealots that came together inspired by common ideology to fill a power vacuum in the territory of a failing state and another in civil war. It's a guerrilla force, whilst very difficult to fight you can certainly 'disband' IS. What you can't do is make all the ones you don't turn into a smouldering patch of glass into well adjusted non religious nutters. Islamic State will be destroyed, the ideas behind it are going nowhere.

[Rugeley Villa]

IS won't last forever.

Radical Islam will be around for the foreseeable.

IS is a construction of a band of idiots and zealots that came together inspired by common ideology to fill a power vacuum in the territory of a failing state and another in civil war. It's a guerrilla force, whilst very difficult to fight you can certainly 'disband' IS. What you can't do is make all the ones you don't turn into a smouldering patch of glass into well adjusted non religious nutters. Islamic State will be destroyed, the ideas behind it are going nowhere.

i hope so.

[OutByEaster?]

I think the main hope for the dissipation of radical Islam is in the women of Islamic countries - it's their eventual desire for a change to their status which will make a difference I think.

 

Edited October 8, 2015 by OutByEaster?

[maqroll]

Things starting to heat up again in Israel/Palestine...With Obama on his way out, and Netanyahoo re-elected, the Zionists might be thinking they can start making more incursions again.

[OutByEaster?]

Things starting to heat up again in Israel/Palestine...With Obama on his way out, and Netanyahoo re-elected, the Zionists might be thinking they can start making more incursions again.

And I see Mr Cameron is taking care of their economic interests by first threatening and then changing the rules on how publicly funded bodies in the UK are able to select who they spend money with after a number of them had begun to press for boycott of Israeli companies.

[Awol]

Things starting to heat up again in Israel/Palestine...With Obama on his way out, and Netanyahoo re-elected, the Zionists might be thinking they can start making more incursions again.

A two state solution has been in ICU for years, it's quite likely the Israelis will move decisively to euthanize it when the most opportune moment presents itself - possibly off the back of Intifada Mk3 when it arrives.

[maqroll]

Palestinian protesters...half comprised of undercover Israeli security forces who suddenly turn on them, kick the shit out of one of them and respond to rocks with a hail of gunfire

 

[TrentVilla]

 

Iranian general killed by ISIS while briefing the Syrian military.

When the response comes I'm sure it will be mighty.

Between the US, the rest of the West and Syria with the backing of Russia and Iran I think ISIS are soon to start to shrink very rapidly both in territory and numbers.