I think your maths is correct too and I'll be very happy if we have it wrapped up sooner rather than later!
Liverpool's collapse should be good for us, unless we catch them just at the moment that all the pressure is gone and they just play for fun.
All of our remaining games are tough, with Brighton perhaps the easiest on paper at the moment - Spurs should win the two easy ones they've got, so I think of us as pretty much neck and neck with the deciding factor being whether we get more points out of Chelsea, Brighton, Liverpool and Palace or they get more out of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.
I think we've got an advantage there - but I'll be a lot happier once we can get a couple of games into it.
A draw against Chelsea wouldn't be the worst result in the world.